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brackt/app/services/simulations/manifest.ts

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Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
import { getSimulatorInfo, SIMULATOR_TYPES, type SimulatorType } from "./registry";
export type SimulatorInputKey =
| "sourceOdds"
| "sourceElo"
| "worldRanking"
| "rating"
| "projectedWins"
| "projectedTablePoints"
| "seed"
| "region"
| "metadata";
export type SimulatorSetupSection =
| "futuresOdds"
| "eloRatings"
| "rankings"
| "ratings"
| "regularStandings"
| "bracket"
| "events"
| "golfSkills"
| "surfaceElo"
| "cs2Setup"
| "participants";
export interface SimulatorManifestProfile {
simulatorType: SimulatorType;
displayName: string;
description: string;
defaultConfig: Record<string, unknown>;
requiredInputs: SimulatorInputKey[];
optionalInputs: SimulatorInputKey[];
derivableInputs?: Partial<Record<SimulatorInputKey, SimulatorInputKey[]>>;
setupSections: SimulatorSetupSection[];
minParticipantInputs?: number;
Make the AFL simulator read the bracket that was actually drawn An AFL club seeded into an Elimination Final is awarded 15 fantasy points the moment the bracket is generated — afl_10's entryFloor: 7 — and cannot finish worse than the 7th-8th tier. Its EV still read 13. AFLSimulator was stateless with respect to the live bracket. It read only participants, sourceElo and the regular-season standings, then re-projected the whole ladder and re-seeded 1-10 from Elo on every one of its 10,000 iterations. So a team with a locked Elimination Final berth was re-drawn into the Wildcard Round, or out of the finals entirely, in a slice of them — and there it scores 0. Even with the ladder complete the Math.random() tiebreaker reshuffled every club tied on ladder points, which in the AFL is most of the middle of the table. Games already played were re-played the same way, so a completed Wildcard win was worth 50% of nothing. Mixing zeroes into a distribution whose floor is 15 is what produced 13. afl_10 is the only template that defines entryFloor at all, which is why this surfaced here and not on LLWS, whose floors only exist once a team has won something. The simulator now mirrors llws-simulator's bracket-aware mode: - readAflBracketSeeds reads the 10 seeds from the slots generateAFL10Bracket writes them into. The two Elimination Final participant2 slots are TBD by design and are never read as seeds, leaving exactly 10 named slots. No draw at all falls back to the ladder projection; a partially seeded, duplicated or unknown draw throws rather than silently discarding the draw and every recorded result with it. - makePlayGame replays a completed match from its recorded result whenever both recorded teams are the two the simulation routed into that game, so an already-played result sticks across all iterations. - simAFLFinals labels each game with the round and match number generateAFL10Bracket and advanceAFLWinner use, so a result is looked up against the game it was played in. Its routing was already correct. EV >= the banked floor now holds by construction, with no clamping: a team seeded into an Elimination Final is in that game in every iteration. Column sums stay exactly 1.0 and the 340-point total-EV invariant is unchanged, since teams outside the bracket simply score nothing. Fixing the simulator alone would not have held. processMatchResult calls updateProbabilitiesAfterResult on every result, and its ICM branch re-derives each still-alive participant's whole distribution from P(1st) alone, knowing nothing about the bracket — so the next finals result would have put the EV straight back under the floor. That branch was built for futures-odds seasons. It now runs only when the season's EVs did not come from a bracket-aware simulator; when they did, that simulator is re-run instead, since it already knows the completed matches. Both conditions matter: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to knocked-out teams, so a new manifest `bracketAware` flag limits this to AFL and LLWS. A failed re-run leaves probabilities untouched rather than falling back to the ICM path that is being replaced. The finalized-participant pinning loop now runs after that recalculation rather than before. A simulation run rewrites every participant in the season, the finalized ones included; a finalized placement is a fact, not a projection, so it is written last and wins. Tests: seeds clear the entry floors their seeding banked, a Qualifying Final entrant is structurally absent from the 7th-8th tier, the bracket's draw beats Elo (the weakest club seeded 1, the strongest seeded 10), completed Wildcard and Qualifying Finals are replayed with the winner banking its floor, teams outside the bracket are zeroed, and the column sums and 340 total survive. The bracket fixtures deliberately seed the ten weakest clubs, because seeding the strongest ten lets the ladder projection reproduce much the same field by accident. Six of the seven were confirmed to fail against the previous behavior. Plus the probability-updater branch in each direction, its failure path, and the pin ordering. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:42:31 +00:00
/**
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
* The simulator reads the season's generated bracket: it seeds from the real draw and
* replays completed matches from their recorded result, rather than re-drawing the field
* and re-playing decided games every iteration.
Make the AFL simulator read the bracket that was actually drawn An AFL club seeded into an Elimination Final is awarded 15 fantasy points the moment the bracket is generated — afl_10's entryFloor: 7 — and cannot finish worse than the 7th-8th tier. Its EV still read 13. AFLSimulator was stateless with respect to the live bracket. It read only participants, sourceElo and the regular-season standings, then re-projected the whole ladder and re-seeded 1-10 from Elo on every one of its 10,000 iterations. So a team with a locked Elimination Final berth was re-drawn into the Wildcard Round, or out of the finals entirely, in a slice of them — and there it scores 0. Even with the ladder complete the Math.random() tiebreaker reshuffled every club tied on ladder points, which in the AFL is most of the middle of the table. Games already played were re-played the same way, so a completed Wildcard win was worth 50% of nothing. Mixing zeroes into a distribution whose floor is 15 is what produced 13. afl_10 is the only template that defines entryFloor at all, which is why this surfaced here and not on LLWS, whose floors only exist once a team has won something. The simulator now mirrors llws-simulator's bracket-aware mode: - readAflBracketSeeds reads the 10 seeds from the slots generateAFL10Bracket writes them into. The two Elimination Final participant2 slots are TBD by design and are never read as seeds, leaving exactly 10 named slots. No draw at all falls back to the ladder projection; a partially seeded, duplicated or unknown draw throws rather than silently discarding the draw and every recorded result with it. - makePlayGame replays a completed match from its recorded result whenever both recorded teams are the two the simulation routed into that game, so an already-played result sticks across all iterations. - simAFLFinals labels each game with the round and match number generateAFL10Bracket and advanceAFLWinner use, so a result is looked up against the game it was played in. Its routing was already correct. EV >= the banked floor now holds by construction, with no clamping: a team seeded into an Elimination Final is in that game in every iteration. Column sums stay exactly 1.0 and the 340-point total-EV invariant is unchanged, since teams outside the bracket simply score nothing. Fixing the simulator alone would not have held. processMatchResult calls updateProbabilitiesAfterResult on every result, and its ICM branch re-derives each still-alive participant's whole distribution from P(1st) alone, knowing nothing about the bracket — so the next finals result would have put the EV straight back under the floor. That branch was built for futures-odds seasons. It now runs only when the season's EVs did not come from a bracket-aware simulator; when they did, that simulator is re-run instead, since it already knows the completed matches. Both conditions matter: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to knocked-out teams, so a new manifest `bracketAware` flag limits this to AFL and LLWS. A failed re-run leaves probabilities untouched rather than falling back to the ICM path that is being replaced. The finalized-participant pinning loop now runs after that recalculation rather than before. A simulation run rewrites every participant in the season, the finalized ones included; a finalized placement is a fact, not a projection, so it is written last and wins. Tests: seeds clear the entry floors their seeding banked, a Qualifying Final entrant is structurally absent from the 7th-8th tier, the bracket's draw beats Elo (the weakest club seeded 1, the strongest seeded 10), completed Wildcard and Qualifying Finals are replayed with the winner banking its floor, teams outside the bracket are zeroed, and the column sums and 340 total survive. The bracket fixtures deliberately seed the ten weakest clubs, because seeding the strongest ten lets the ladder projection reproduce much the same field by accident. Six of the seven were confirmed to fail against the previous behavior. Plus the probability-updater branch in each direction, its failure path, and the pin ordering. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:42:31 +00:00
*
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
* updateProbabilitiesAfterResult reads this to decide whether a result should be absorbed
* by re-running the simulator or by the generic ICM recalculation. Re-running is both more
* accurate and the only option that respects a banked placement floor, but it is only safe
* here: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back
* to teams already knocked out.
*
* Both halves are required. A simulator that reads the draw but re-simulates games already
* played is NOT bracket-aware for this purpose — it resurrects eliminated teams just the
* same. Check for an `isComplete`/`winnerId` replay before setting this on a new simulator.
*
* This is deliberately separate from `setupSections: ["bracket"]`, which only drives admin
* links and a readiness warning and does not track this accurately in either direction.
Make the AFL simulator read the bracket that was actually drawn An AFL club seeded into an Elimination Final is awarded 15 fantasy points the moment the bracket is generated — afl_10's entryFloor: 7 — and cannot finish worse than the 7th-8th tier. Its EV still read 13. AFLSimulator was stateless with respect to the live bracket. It read only participants, sourceElo and the regular-season standings, then re-projected the whole ladder and re-seeded 1-10 from Elo on every one of its 10,000 iterations. So a team with a locked Elimination Final berth was re-drawn into the Wildcard Round, or out of the finals entirely, in a slice of them — and there it scores 0. Even with the ladder complete the Math.random() tiebreaker reshuffled every club tied on ladder points, which in the AFL is most of the middle of the table. Games already played were re-played the same way, so a completed Wildcard win was worth 50% of nothing. Mixing zeroes into a distribution whose floor is 15 is what produced 13. afl_10 is the only template that defines entryFloor at all, which is why this surfaced here and not on LLWS, whose floors only exist once a team has won something. The simulator now mirrors llws-simulator's bracket-aware mode: - readAflBracketSeeds reads the 10 seeds from the slots generateAFL10Bracket writes them into. The two Elimination Final participant2 slots are TBD by design and are never read as seeds, leaving exactly 10 named slots. No draw at all falls back to the ladder projection; a partially seeded, duplicated or unknown draw throws rather than silently discarding the draw and every recorded result with it. - makePlayGame replays a completed match from its recorded result whenever both recorded teams are the two the simulation routed into that game, so an already-played result sticks across all iterations. - simAFLFinals labels each game with the round and match number generateAFL10Bracket and advanceAFLWinner use, so a result is looked up against the game it was played in. Its routing was already correct. EV >= the banked floor now holds by construction, with no clamping: a team seeded into an Elimination Final is in that game in every iteration. Column sums stay exactly 1.0 and the 340-point total-EV invariant is unchanged, since teams outside the bracket simply score nothing. Fixing the simulator alone would not have held. processMatchResult calls updateProbabilitiesAfterResult on every result, and its ICM branch re-derives each still-alive participant's whole distribution from P(1st) alone, knowing nothing about the bracket — so the next finals result would have put the EV straight back under the floor. That branch was built for futures-odds seasons. It now runs only when the season's EVs did not come from a bracket-aware simulator; when they did, that simulator is re-run instead, since it already knows the completed matches. Both conditions matter: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to knocked-out teams, so a new manifest `bracketAware` flag limits this to AFL and LLWS. A failed re-run leaves probabilities untouched rather than falling back to the ICM path that is being replaced. The finalized-participant pinning loop now runs after that recalculation rather than before. A simulation run rewrites every participant in the season, the finalized ones included; a finalized placement is a fact, not a projection, so it is written last and wins. Tests: seeds clear the entry floors their seeding banked, a Qualifying Final entrant is structurally absent from the 7th-8th tier, the bracket's draw beats Elo (the weakest club seeded 1, the strongest seeded 10), completed Wildcard and Qualifying Finals are replayed with the winner banking its floor, teams outside the bracket are zeroed, and the column sums and 340 total survive. The bracket fixtures deliberately seed the ten weakest clubs, because seeding the strongest ten lets the ladder projection reproduce much the same field by accident. Six of the seven were confirmed to fail against the previous behavior. Plus the probability-updater branch in each direction, its failure path, and the pin ordering. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:42:31 +00:00
*/
bracketAware?: boolean;
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
}
const BASE_CONFIG = {
iterations: 50_000,
};
const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorType" | "displayName" | "description">> = {
f1_standings: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, raceNoise: 0.5, participantVolatility: 1.5 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
optionalInputs: [],
setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "events"],
},
indycar_standings: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, raceNoise: 0.5, participantVolatility: 1.5 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
optionalInputs: [],
setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "events"],
},
golf_qualifying_points: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, fieldSize: 156, plBeta: 1.5 },
requiredInputs: [],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "rating"],
setupSections: ["participants", "events", "golfSkills"],
},
playoff_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG },
requiredInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceElo"],
setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
},
ucl_bracket: {
claude/probability-config-review-1tdolw (#119) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/119
2026-06-30 23:24:48 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
claude/clever-archimedes-dvye42 (#110) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/110
2026-06-26 05:16:54 +00:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
ncaam_bracket: {
Upgrade NCAA preseason simulators (#419)
2026-05-12 22:26:25 -07:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, ratingScaleFactor: 7.5, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, fallbackRatingDelta: 5 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["rating"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "sourceElo", "seed", "region"],
derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "ratings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
ncaaw_bracket: {
Fix NCAAW futures odds simulation and admin import UX (#420) - Revert ncaaw-simulator to Barthag win probability formula; set realistic rating bounds (ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97) so derived ratings stay in the range where the formula behaves well - Add batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator which clears all ratings (manual and generated) before upserting sourceOdds, so futures odds always drive the simulation rather than being silently overridden by existing Barthag ratings from Simulator Setup - Add clearSourceOddsForParticipants to zero out both tables for participants excluded from a bulk import - Add "Clear existing odds" checkbox to the bulk import card; applies client-side on match and server-side on submit - Fix missing sportsSeasonId filter in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator pre-clear UPDATE (could have wiped ratings across other seasons) - Fix race condition: run batchSaveSourceOdds then batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator sequentially so the simulator inputs table always ends in the correct cleared state - Fix Math.round in convertFuturesToElo collapsing Barthag-scale ratings to 0 or 1; Elo callers already round after clamping - Handle all-identical-odds edge case in convertFuturesToElo (assign midpoint instead of throwing) - Add missingRatingStrategy: worstKnownMinus to ncaaw_bracket manifest so fallbackRatingDelta is live config, not dead - Log warning in resolveRatings when only 1 participant has odds - Reset clearExisting checkbox after applyMatches Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 01:06:16 -07:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97, missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 0.01 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["rating"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "seed", "region"],
derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "ratings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
nba_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, seasonGames: 82 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
nhl_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 1000, seasonGames: 82, overtimeRate: 0.23 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
nfl_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, seasonGames: 17, homeFieldElo: 48 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
},
afl_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 450, seasonGames: 23 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins"] },
Make the AFL simulator read the bracket that was actually drawn An AFL club seeded into an Elimination Final is awarded 15 fantasy points the moment the bracket is generated — afl_10's entryFloor: 7 — and cannot finish worse than the 7th-8th tier. Its EV still read 13. AFLSimulator was stateless with respect to the live bracket. It read only participants, sourceElo and the regular-season standings, then re-projected the whole ladder and re-seeded 1-10 from Elo on every one of its 10,000 iterations. So a team with a locked Elimination Final berth was re-drawn into the Wildcard Round, or out of the finals entirely, in a slice of them — and there it scores 0. Even with the ladder complete the Math.random() tiebreaker reshuffled every club tied on ladder points, which in the AFL is most of the middle of the table. Games already played were re-played the same way, so a completed Wildcard win was worth 50% of nothing. Mixing zeroes into a distribution whose floor is 15 is what produced 13. afl_10 is the only template that defines entryFloor at all, which is why this surfaced here and not on LLWS, whose floors only exist once a team has won something. The simulator now mirrors llws-simulator's bracket-aware mode: - readAflBracketSeeds reads the 10 seeds from the slots generateAFL10Bracket writes them into. The two Elimination Final participant2 slots are TBD by design and are never read as seeds, leaving exactly 10 named slots. No draw at all falls back to the ladder projection; a partially seeded, duplicated or unknown draw throws rather than silently discarding the draw and every recorded result with it. - makePlayGame replays a completed match from its recorded result whenever both recorded teams are the two the simulation routed into that game, so an already-played result sticks across all iterations. - simAFLFinals labels each game with the round and match number generateAFL10Bracket and advanceAFLWinner use, so a result is looked up against the game it was played in. Its routing was already correct. EV >= the banked floor now holds by construction, with no clamping: a team seeded into an Elimination Final is in that game in every iteration. Column sums stay exactly 1.0 and the 340-point total-EV invariant is unchanged, since teams outside the bracket simply score nothing. Fixing the simulator alone would not have held. processMatchResult calls updateProbabilitiesAfterResult on every result, and its ICM branch re-derives each still-alive participant's whole distribution from P(1st) alone, knowing nothing about the bracket — so the next finals result would have put the EV straight back under the floor. That branch was built for futures-odds seasons. It now runs only when the season's EVs did not come from a bracket-aware simulator; when they did, that simulator is re-run instead, since it already knows the completed matches. Both conditions matter: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to knocked-out teams, so a new manifest `bracketAware` flag limits this to AFL and LLWS. A failed re-run leaves probabilities untouched rather than falling back to the ICM path that is being replaced. The finalized-participant pinning loop now runs after that recalculation rather than before. A simulation run rewrites every participant in the season, the finalized ones included; a finalized placement is a fact, not a projection, so it is written last and wins. Tests: seeds clear the entry floors their seeding banked, a Qualifying Final entrant is structurally absent from the 7th-8th tier, the bracket's draw beats Elo (the weakest club seeded 1, the strongest seeded 10), completed Wildcard and Qualifying Finals are replayed with the winner banking its floor, teams outside the bracket are zeroed, and the column sums and 340 total survive. The bracket fixtures deliberately seed the ten weakest clubs, because seeding the strongest ten lets the ladder projection reproduce much the same field by accident. Six of the seven were confirmed to fail against the previous behavior. Plus the probability-updater branch in each direction, its failure path, and the pin ordering. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:42:31 +00:00
// The bracket is optional — before one exists the ladder is projected from Elo — but once
// it is drawn the simulator seeds from it and honors completed results.
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
epl_standings: {
Fix EPL simulator parity config (#421)
2026-05-13 15:02:23 -07:00
defaultConfig: {
...BASE_CONFIG,
Fix simulator correctness bugs and reduce test iteration counts (#61) ## Summary - **Bug fix**: EPL Elo/odds fallback was gated on \`dbEloMap.size === 0\` — if any team had a direct \`sourceElo\`, teams with only \`sourceOdds\` were never populated and the simulator threw "Missing Elo" instead of using their odds data - **Iterations**: WorldCupSimulator default 50k→10k; manifest \`defaultConfig\` for \`world_cup\` and \`epl_standings\` now explicitly override \`BASE_CONFIG\` with 10k so the production fallback matches; test iterations reduced (WorldCup 500→100, EPL 10k→500) to fix timeout failures on slower CI - **Cleanup**: Extracted \`runKnockoutRound\` out of the 10k-iteration simulation loop; replaced two hot-loop \`toSorted()\` calls on 2-element arrays with a conditional string comparison; removed local \`normalizeProbabilities\` in favour of the shared \`normalizeSimulationResultColumns\` ## Test plan - [ ] \`npm run test:run\` — all simulator unit tests pass without timeout - [ ] Typecheck passes (\`npm run typecheck\`) - [ ] EPL simulate with mixed Elo+odds data no longer throws 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/61
2026-05-31 17:39:43 +00:00
iterations: 10_000,
Fix EPL simulator parity config (#421)
2026-05-13 15:02:23 -07:00
seasonGames: 38,
parityFactor: 400,
matchParityFactor: 400,
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
baseDrawRate: 0.26,
drawDecay: 0.002,
},
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedTablePoints"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
},
snooker_bracket: {
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, eloDivisor: 400 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["worldRanking", "seed"],
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
tennis_qualifying_points: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400, fallbackElo: 1500 },
requiredInputs: [],
optionalInputs: ["worldRanking"],
setupSections: ["participants", "surfaceElo", "events"],
},
mlb_bracket: {
Make MLB projected wins actually drive the simulation Entering projected wins for an in-progress MLB season did not behave as expected: the entered numbers came back changed, and the simulation appeared to ignore them in favour of whatever Elo was already stored. Four separate defects were involved. Projections are now stored and shown verbatim. The Elo Ratings page never kept the number typed into it — the field was a display derived from Elo, so a pasted 95 rendered as 95.1 the moment it was applied (wins to Elo rounds to an integer Elo) and drifted again after each run, because a run re-resolves that Elo through the input policy. The loader now reads back the stored projection and the paste flow keeps the pasted value as-is; the derived round-trip survives only as a prefill for seasons that have never had a projection saved. A stale Elo no longer silently outranks a projection. baseEloPriority takes the first available base source, and the simulator page's bulk CSV wrote projectedWins without stamping metadata.sourceEloMethod, so the non-destructive upsert left the old Elo in place as a trusted direct value and it won the race — the projection was stored and then ignored on every run. The CSV path now stamps the flag like the Elo Ratings page does, the metadata upsert merges rather than replaces so a flag-only write keeps unrelated keys, and Base Elo Source is editable per season for the case where a genuine hand-entered Elo should still lose to projections. Projected wins now act as a projected final total. The value was baked into a flat season-long rate (projectedWins / 162) applied to every remaining game, so a team at 60-50 projected for 95 finished around 90.5 and the projection was never reached mid-season. seedingWinRateFor spreads the difference over the games still to play, which is a no-op pre-season where the two rates coincide; projectedWinsWeight blends it back toward the Elo-implied rate. Playoff-parity compression is restored for Elo-rated teams. eloToRDif scaled by RDIF_DIVISOR, making it the exact algebraic inverse of winRateFromRDif, so any team with an Elo skipped the compression every hardcoded-rdif team gets: a 95-win projection became RDif +686 and played playoff games at .586 instead of the documented ~.517. It now scales by SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE, landing at ~+140 alongside the Dodgers' hardcoded +137. Also fixes the preview table's "missing a required input" marker, which flagged every projection-configured participant because a generated Elo or rating is deliberately hidden from getParticipantSimulatorInputs. It now consults the resolved values, so it agrees with readiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQSEmmojmqmGdJttgzqCWK
2026-08-29 05:31:15 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, seasonGames: 162, projectedWinsWeight: 1, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
},
wnba_bracket: {
claude/probability-config-review-1tdolw (#119) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/119
2026-06-30 23:24:48 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, seasonGames: 44, srsEloScale: 30 },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
},
world_cup: {
claude/clever-archimedes-dvye42 (#110) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/110
2026-06-26 05:16:54 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "futuresOdds", "events"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
darts_bracket: {
Fix simulator correctness bugs and reduce test iteration counts (#61) ## Summary - **Bug fix**: EPL Elo/odds fallback was gated on \`dbEloMap.size === 0\` — if any team had a direct \`sourceElo\`, teams with only \`sourceOdds\` were never populated and the simulator threw "Missing Elo" instead of using their odds data - **Iterations**: WorldCupSimulator default 50k→10k; manifest \`defaultConfig\` for \`world_cup\` and \`epl_standings\` now explicitly override \`BASE_CONFIG\` with 10k so the production fallback matches; test iterations reduced (WorldCup 500→100, EPL 10k→500) to fix timeout failures on slower CI - **Cleanup**: Extracted \`runKnockoutRound\` out of the 10k-iteration simulation loop; replaced two hot-loop \`toSorted()\` calls on 2-element arrays with a conditional string comparison; removed local \`normalizeProbabilities\` in favour of the shared \`normalizeSimulationResultColumns\` ## Test plan - [ ] \`npm run test:run\` — all simulator unit tests pass without timeout - [ ] Typecheck passes (\`npm run typecheck\`) - [ ] EPL simulate with mixed Elo+odds data no longer throws 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/61
2026-05-31 17:39:43 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400 },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo", "worldRanking"],
optionalInputs: ["seed"],
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
cs2_major_qualifying_points: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, fieldSize: 32, guaranteedCount: 12 },
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["worldRanking", "metadata"],
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "cs2Setup", "events"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
ncaa_football_bracket: {
claude/probability-config-review-1tdolw (#119) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/119
2026-06-30 23:24:48 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, bracketSize: 12, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.4 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
},
llws_bracket: {
Address review findings in LLWS simulator Four fixes from code review of the previous commit. 1. Preserve the futures board's dispersion (llws-simulator.ts). convertFuturesToElo finishes by rescaling any field onto a fixed 1250-1750 Elo span, discarding how spread out the board actually is: a board with a 22%-priced favorite and one with a 6%-priced favorite both came out 500 Elo wide. On a tight board that inflated the favorite from 6% to 13% -- worse than the raw-futures model it replaced (RMSE 0.025 vs 0.005), so the previous commit was a regression in that regime. buildLLWSElos now maps decompressed strengths by their log-ratio to the field's geometric mean, so Elo span tracks real dispersion. Re-swept the parity factor across three board shapes rather than one: 550 minimizes total error. Simulated vs priced favorite, with RMSE: wide 21.8% -> 20.7% (0.0055), elo span 1355-1682 top-heavy 28.2% -> 25.6% (0.0085), elo span 1354-1733 tight 6.0% -> 5.8% (0.0026), elo span 1484-1518 2. Rate an unpriced team at the field's median, not 1500. DEFAULT_ELO is the midpoint of the Elo output range, not of the field; on a typical board it ranked an unpriced team ~6th of 20, so blanking a team's odds promoted it. buildLLWSElos now returns the priced field's median alongside the ratings (ranks 11th of 20 on the same board). 3. Pick the bracket event deterministically. scoringEvents.findFirst with no ordering returned an arbitrary row when a season had more than one llws_20 playoff event; landing on a stale one silently reverted to a randomized draw that ignored all recorded results. Now takes the most recent, matching world-cup-simulator.ts. 4. Fail on a partially seeded bracket instead of discarding it. readBracketSlots returned null on any single missing participant, throwing away the draw and every completed result with no warning. Since playoff_matches participant columns are ON DELETE SET NULL, removing and re-adding one participant mid-tournament was enough to put eliminated teams back in contention. It now distinguishes "generated but not seeded" (0 slots filled -> randomized draw) from "partially seeded" (throws). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01X5vQZMPeokzfMqHQjq1RDZ
2026-08-21 22:08:04 +00:00
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 550, usTeamCount: 10, internationalTeamCount: 10 },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
optionalInputs: ["metadata"],
Make LLWS simulator bracket-aware and calibrate its futures model The LLWS simulator was overestimating favorites and ignoring games that had already been played. Two separate causes: 1. Championship futures were used directly as single-game strength (p1 / (p1 + p2)). A future already compounds the ~6 wins needed to take the title, so this made every individual game as lopsided as the whole tournament and re-compounded that edge round after round. Against a representative 20-team board the favorite priced at 21.8% simulated at 44.9%, and the longest shot fell to ~0%. Futures are now decompressed to single-game Elo via convertFuturesToElo, the same pipeline the other bracket simulators use, and games are played with eloWinProbabilityWithParity. The parity factor was calibrated by sweeping it until a randomized-draw simulation reproduces the board it was fed: at 1000 the favorite simulates at 21.8% and field-wide RMSE drops from 0.062 to 0.003. It is overridable per season via config. 2. The simulator never read playoff_matches, so it re-ran the tournament from an empty bracket every time and shuffled the draw at random each iteration. A recorded loss changed nothing. It now loads the seeded llws_20 bracket, places teams in their real slots, and replays completed games from their recorded result instead of re-simulating them, so an eliminated team correctly drops to zero. When no bracket exists (or it has no participants seeded) it falls back to the previous randomized-draw behavior, and a seeded bracket is authoritative about which side a team is on, so externalId is only required on the pre-bracket path. Guards: a recorded result is only honored when its two participants are the ones the simulation routed into that game, so a corrupt or out-of-order row cannot desynchronize the rest of the bracket; brackets seeding an unknown or duplicated participant now fail loudly. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01X5vQZMPeokzfMqHQjq1RDZ
2026-08-21 21:09:47 +00:00
// The bracket is optional — without one the draw is randomized — but once it
// exists the simulator reads the real draw and honors completed results from it.
setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
Make the AFL simulator read the bracket that was actually drawn An AFL club seeded into an Elimination Final is awarded 15 fantasy points the moment the bracket is generated — afl_10's entryFloor: 7 — and cannot finish worse than the 7th-8th tier. Its EV still read 13. AFLSimulator was stateless with respect to the live bracket. It read only participants, sourceElo and the regular-season standings, then re-projected the whole ladder and re-seeded 1-10 from Elo on every one of its 10,000 iterations. So a team with a locked Elimination Final berth was re-drawn into the Wildcard Round, or out of the finals entirely, in a slice of them — and there it scores 0. Even with the ladder complete the Math.random() tiebreaker reshuffled every club tied on ladder points, which in the AFL is most of the middle of the table. Games already played were re-played the same way, so a completed Wildcard win was worth 50% of nothing. Mixing zeroes into a distribution whose floor is 15 is what produced 13. afl_10 is the only template that defines entryFloor at all, which is why this surfaced here and not on LLWS, whose floors only exist once a team has won something. The simulator now mirrors llws-simulator's bracket-aware mode: - readAflBracketSeeds reads the 10 seeds from the slots generateAFL10Bracket writes them into. The two Elimination Final participant2 slots are TBD by design and are never read as seeds, leaving exactly 10 named slots. No draw at all falls back to the ladder projection; a partially seeded, duplicated or unknown draw throws rather than silently discarding the draw and every recorded result with it. - makePlayGame replays a completed match from its recorded result whenever both recorded teams are the two the simulation routed into that game, so an already-played result sticks across all iterations. - simAFLFinals labels each game with the round and match number generateAFL10Bracket and advanceAFLWinner use, so a result is looked up against the game it was played in. Its routing was already correct. EV >= the banked floor now holds by construction, with no clamping: a team seeded into an Elimination Final is in that game in every iteration. Column sums stay exactly 1.0 and the 340-point total-EV invariant is unchanged, since teams outside the bracket simply score nothing. Fixing the simulator alone would not have held. processMatchResult calls updateProbabilitiesAfterResult on every result, and its ICM branch re-derives each still-alive participant's whole distribution from P(1st) alone, knowing nothing about the bracket — so the next finals result would have put the EV straight back under the floor. That branch was built for futures-odds seasons. It now runs only when the season's EVs did not come from a bracket-aware simulator; when they did, that simulator is re-run instead, since it already knows the completed matches. Both conditions matter: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to knocked-out teams, so a new manifest `bracketAware` flag limits this to AFL and LLWS. A failed re-run leaves probabilities untouched rather than falling back to the ICM path that is being replaced. The finalized-participant pinning loop now runs after that recalculation rather than before. A simulation run rewrites every participant in the season, the finalized ones included; a finalized placement is a fact, not a projection, so it is written last and wins. Tests: seeds clear the entry floors their seeding banked, a Qualifying Final entrant is structurally absent from the 7th-8th tier, the bracket's draw beats Elo (the weakest club seeded 1, the strongest seeded 10), completed Wildcard and Qualifying Finals are replayed with the winner banking its floor, teams outside the bracket are zeroed, and the column sums and 340 total survive. The bracket fixtures deliberately seed the ten weakest clubs, because seeding the strongest ten lets the ladder projection reproduce much the same field by accident. Six of the seven were confirmed to fail against the previous behavior. Plus the probability-updater branch in each direction, its failure path, and the pin ordering. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:42:31 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
college_hockey_bracket: {
claude/clever-archimedes-dvye42 (#110) Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/110
2026-06-26 05:16:54 +00:00
// College hockey blends odds into Elo internally (and also uses NPI rank,
// which the central resolver can't represent). oddsWeight 0 makes the central
// resolver leave a present base Elo untouched (no double-count), while still
// letting odds resolve a participant's Elo when they are the only source — so
// readiness and the sim's own internal odds blend both keep working.
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, bracketSize: 16, parityFactor: 850, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0 } },
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
},
brackt: {
defaultConfig: { iterations: 20_000 },
requiredInputs: [],
optionalInputs: [],
setupSections: ["participants"],
},
Add NLL box lacrosse simulator implementation plan and preseason-draftability guidance (#417) * docs: plan NLL preseason simulator * Add NLL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo simulator 14-team regular season (18 games) projects top-8 via Elo + decaying projectedWins prior (adjusts for games already played). Playoff bracket: QF single-game (1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5), SF and Finals best-of-3. Three runtime modes: bracket-aware → known-seed → regular-season projection. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 14:22:34 -07:00
nll_bracket: {
defaultConfig: {
...BASE_CONFIG,
seasonGames: 18,
parityFactor: 400,
bracketSize: 8,
playoffTeams: 8,
regularSeasonTeamCount: 14,
homeFieldElo: 0,
regularSeasonMode: "project_remaining_games",
regularSeasonNoise: 0.9,
},
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds", "seed"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
2026-08-29 02:49:17 +00:00
bracketAware: true,
Add NLL box lacrosse simulator implementation plan and preseason-draftability guidance (#417) * docs: plan NLL preseason simulator * Add NLL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo simulator 14-team regular season (18 games) projects top-8 via Elo + decaying projectedWins prior (adjusts for games already played). Playoff bracket: QF single-game (1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5), SF and Finals best-of-3. Three runtime modes: bracket-aware → known-seed → regular-season projection. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 14:22:34 -07:00
},
Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket) (#422) * Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket) Adds Major League Soccer as a draftable sport with a full-season Monte Carlo simulator. Models both preseason regular-season projection (34 games across Eastern and Western conferences) and the MLS Cup Playoffs bracket, including the Wild Card (single game + PKs), Round 1 best-of-3 series, Conference Semis/Finals (single game), and MLS Cup. P1–P8 mapping: MLS Cup winner, finalist, Conference Finals losers, Conference Semifinals losers. Conference assignment reads from regularSeasonStandings.conference or falls back to the region simulator input ("Eastern"/"Western"). Admin inputs: projectedTablePoints (primary, max 102 for 34×3), with derivation chain to sourceElo via existing input-policy; sourceOdds as alternative. No hardcoded team data — all inputs are admin-managed per season. - database/schema.ts: add mls_bracket to simulatorTypeEnum - drizzle/0104_chief_boom_boom.sql: migration for the new enum value - mls-simulator.ts: MLSSimulator + exported pure helpers for testability - registry.ts / manifest.ts / simulator-config.ts: register mls_bracket - mls-simulator.test.ts: 38 unit tests covering all helpers and sync checks https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa * Fix MLS simulator: config loading, sourceOdds fallback, normalization Three issues found in code review comparing against EPL and NFL simulators: 1. Load simulator config from DB via getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig so admins can override iterations, seasonGames, parityFactor, drawRates per season without code changes. Previously all constants were hardcoded. 2. Add sourceOdds → convertFuturesToElo fallback when no sourceElo is present. EPL and NFL both do this; MLS was throwing immediately instead of attempting the odds conversion that the manifest declares as optional. 3. Call normalizeSimulationResultColumns before returning results, matching EPL's local normalization pattern for consistency (runner also normalizes globally, but EPL calls it locally too). https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa * Polish MLS simulator: configNumber zero, logger warning, Map lookup Three small fixes from secondary code review: 1. configNumber: allow value >= 0 (not just > 0) so admins can legitimately set baseDrawRate or drawDecay to 0 without the value being silently discarded and replaced with the default. 2. Add logger.warn when a participant is excluded from simulation due to a missing Elo rating, matching the NLL bracket-aware pattern. Gives admins a visible signal instead of a silent exclusion. 3. getBySeeds: build a Map once instead of calling Array.find() per seed. Eliminates 4M linear scans across 50k iterations for a 9- element array — trivially fast either way, but Map is the right tool. https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 12:45:53 -07:00
mls_bracket: {
defaultConfig: {
...BASE_CONFIG,
seasonGames: 34,
parityFactor: 400,
matchParityFactor: 400,
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
baseDrawRate: 0.26,
drawDecay: 0.002,
playoffTeamsPerConference: 9,
},
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedTablePoints", "seed", "region"],
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds"] },
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
},
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
};
export const SIMULATOR_MANIFEST: Record<SimulatorType, SimulatorManifestProfile> =
Object.fromEntries(
SIMULATOR_TYPES.map((simulatorType) => {
const info = getSimulatorInfo(simulatorType);
const profile = PROFILES[simulatorType];
return [
simulatorType,
{
simulatorType,
displayName: info?.name ?? simulatorType,
description: info?.description ?? "",
...profile,
minParticipantInputs: profile.minParticipantInputs ?? 1,
},
];
})
) as Record<SimulatorType, SimulatorManifestProfile>;
export function getManifestSimulatorProfile(
simulatorType: SimulatorType
): SimulatorManifestProfile {
return SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType];
}
export function simulatorInputLabel(key: SimulatorInputKey): string {
const labels: Record<SimulatorInputKey, string> = {
sourceOdds: "futures odds",
sourceElo: "Elo rating",
worldRanking: "ranking",
rating: "rating",
projectedWins: "projected wins",
projectedTablePoints: "projected table points",
seed: "seed",
region: "region",
metadata: "metadata",
};
return labels[key];
}
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