brackt/app/services/simulations/registry.ts

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User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
/**
* Simulator Registry
*
* Maps a sport's simulatorType to the appropriate Simulator implementation.
* Set simulatorType on the sport record in the admin UI.
* Add new simulators here as new sports are supported.
*/
import type { Simulator } from "./types";
import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator";
import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator";
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator";
import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator";
import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator";
import { AFLSimulator } from "./afl-simulator";
import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator";
import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator";
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248) Fixes #123 * Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket) - New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13). ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths: Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B (pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations). - darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry. - world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values (migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it. - Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save. - DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals). - 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration. https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName - Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration - Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it - Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots; removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder - Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced) - Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted - Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test - Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule) - Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort) https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
import { DartsSimulator } from "./darts-simulator";
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260) * Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with: - 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3) + Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5) - Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season - Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank - Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3) - Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation - Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings - Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement - Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table - 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav, which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the redundant sport-specific pages. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer, snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy- initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility). Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000 iterations to eliminate flakiness. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard - cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across all events instead of just the target event - cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix all remaining code review issues - cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string - cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only simulating the remaining stages during live events - admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast - cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic; remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars - cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted() - cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import - cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730). With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of the time in CI despite 1000 iterations. Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
import { CSMajorSimulator } from "./cs-major-simulator";
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225) * Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 - New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners (weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series. Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available. - New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API, mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits. - New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line, headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference". - Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections (divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render. - DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum. - 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold 500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate). Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator";
import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator";
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242) * Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127 - New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule) - `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering - `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column - Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action - `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings - `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals - Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally - Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game - `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug) - Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings - Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader - League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only - Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000. Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator";
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
"f1_standings",
"indycar_standings",
"golf_qualifying_points",
"playoff_bracket",
"ucl_bracket",
"ncaam_bracket",
"ncaaw_bracket",
"nba_bracket",
"nhl_bracket",
"afl_bracket",
"snooker_bracket",
"tennis_qualifying_points",
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225) * Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 - New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners (weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series. Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available. - New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API, mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits. - New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line, headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference". - Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections (divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render. - DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum. - 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold 500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate). Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
"mlb_bracket",
"wnba_bracket",
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242) * Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127 - New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule) - `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering - `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column - Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action - `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings - `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals - Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally - Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game - `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug) - Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings - Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader - League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only - Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000. Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
"world_cup",
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248) Fixes #123 * Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket) - New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13). ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths: Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B (pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations). - darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry. - world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values (migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it. - Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save. - DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals). - 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration. https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName - Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration - Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it - Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots; removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder - Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced) - Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted - Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test - Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule) - Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort) https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
"darts_bracket",
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260) * Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with: - 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3) + Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5) - Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season - Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank - Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3) - Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation - Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings - Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement - Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table - 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav, which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the redundant sport-specific pages. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer, snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy- initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility). Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000 iterations to eliminate flakiness. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard - cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across all events instead of just the target event - cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix all remaining code review issues - cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string - cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only simulating the remaining stages during live events - admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast - cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic; remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars - cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted() - cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import - cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730). With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of the time in CI despite 1000 iterations. Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
"cs2_major_qualifying_points",
] as const;
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
// ─── Race points tables ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/** F1 points: positions 110. */
const F1_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
1: 25, 2: 18, 3: 15, 4: 12, 5: 10, 6: 8, 7: 6, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1,
};
/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 126. */
const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
1: 50, 2: 40, 3: 35, 4: 32, 5: 30, 6: 28, 7: 26, 8: 24, 9: 22, 10: 20,
11: 19, 12: 18, 13: 17, 14: 16, 15: 15, 16: 14, 17: 13, 18: 12, 19: 11, 20: 10,
21: 9, 22: 8, 23: 7, 24: 6, 25: 5, 26: 5,
};
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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export interface SimulatorInfo {
name: string;
description: string;
}
const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simulator }> = {
f1_standings: {
info: { name: "F1 Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current F1 standings and futures odds" },
create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1_standings_model"),
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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},
indycar_standings: {
info: { name: "IndyCar Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current IndyCar standings and futures odds" },
create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar_standings_model"),
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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},
golf_qualifying_points: {
Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223) * Add golf QP simulator with Plackett-Luce model, fixes #120 - New `participant_golf_skills` table (migration 0061) for SG: Total and per-major American odds per player/season - New `app/models/golf-skills.ts` with getGolfSkillsMap, getGolfSkillsForSeason, batchUpsertGolfSkills - Full `GolfSimulator` implementation replacing the TODO stub: Plackett-Luce ranking model (PL_BETA=1.5, FIELD_SIZE=156), 10k Monte Carlo iterations, awards QP by finishing position, ranks by total QP across all 4 majors - New admin route `sports-seasons/:id/golf-skills` with bulk CSV import, fuzzy name matching, per-player SG + per-major odds inputs; saves skills and auto-runs simulation on submit - Simulator dropdown on sport admin sorted alphabetically; renamed to "Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo" - Golf Skills button shown on sports season admin when simulator type is golf_qualifying_points - Extract normalizeName/diceCoefficient to shared `app/lib/fuzzy-match.ts`, removing duplication from surface-elo and golf-skills routes - Parallelize 4 DB queries in GolfSimulator.simulate() with Promise.all - O(1) field array removal via swap-to-end + pop (was O(N) splice) - Fix source tag: performance_model (not elo_simulation) for SG-based model - 23 unit tests covering americanToImplied, getMajorOddsKey, resolveSkill, simulateMajor, and Monte Carlo calibration properties Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix oxlint errors: no-non-null-assertion and eqeqeq Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
info: { name: "Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates remaining majors using a Plackett-Luce model with SG: Total ratings. Awards QP by finishing position; ranks players by total QP across all 4 majors." },
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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create: () => new GolfSimulator(),
},
playoff_bracket: {
info: { name: "Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates playoff bracket outcomes using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new BracketSimulator(),
},
ucl_bracket: {
info: { name: "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" },
create: () => new UCLSimulator(),
},
ncaam_bracket: {
info: { name: "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using KenPom net ratings" },
create: () => new NCAAMSimulator(),
},
ncaaw_bracket: {
info: { name: "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using Barttorvik Barthag ratings" },
create: () => new NCAAWSimulator(),
},
nba_bracket: {
info: { name: "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new NBASimulator(),
},
nhl_bracket: {
info: { name: "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new NHLSimulator(),
},
afl_bracket: {
info: { name: "AFL Season + Finals Monte Carlo", description: "Projects AFL regular season standings via Elo, then simulates the 10-team finals series (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season." },
create: () => new AFLSimulator(),
},
snooker_bracket: {
info: { name: "Snooker World Championship Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 32-player World Championship bracket using frame-by-frame Bernoulli win probability and direct Elo ratings. Pre-bracket path simulates qualifying (ranks 17-48) and randomly draws qualifiers vs top 16 seeds." },
create: () => new SnookerSimulator(),
},
tennis_qualifying_points: {
info: { name: "Tennis Grand Slam Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (128-player seeded bracket) using surface-specific Elo ratings. Accumulates qualifying points per round (tie-split applied) and ranks players by total QP across the season." },
create: () => new TennisSimulator(),
},
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225) * Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 - New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners (weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series. Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available. - New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API, mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits. - New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line, headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference". - Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections (divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render. - DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum. - 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold 500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate). Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
mlb_bracket: {
info: { name: "MLB Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates MLB division races + full playoff bracket (WC best-of-3, DS best-of-5, LCS/WS best-of-7) using Elo ratings calibrated from FanGraphs projected wins" },
create: () => new MLBSimulator(),
},
wnba_bracket: {
info: { name: "WNBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Projects WNBA regular season seedings and simulates full playoff bracket (R1 best-of-3, Semis best-of-5, Finals best-of-7) using SRS-derived Elo ratings. SRS values sourced from basketball-reference.com." },
create: () => new WNBASimulator(),
},
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242) * Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127 - New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule) - `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering - `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column - Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action - `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings - `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals - Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally - Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game - `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug) - Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings - Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader - League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only - Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000. Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
world_cup: {
info: { name: "FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the full 48-team World Cup: round-robin group stage (12 groups), best-8 third-place selection, R32→R16→QF→SF→3rd place game→Final. Uses blended Elo + futures odds." },
create: () => new WorldCupSimulator(),
},
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248) Fixes #123 * Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket) - New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13). ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths: Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B (pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations). - darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry. - world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values (migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it. - Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save. - DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals). - 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration. https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName - Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration - Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it - Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots; removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder - Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced) - Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted - Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test - Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule) - Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort) https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
darts_bracket: {
info: { name: "PDC World Darts Championship Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 128-player World Darts Championship bracket using set-level Bernoulli win probability and Elo ratings. Top 32 seeds placed in fixed positions; remaining 96 players randomly drawn per simulation." },
create: () => new DartsSimulator(),
},
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260) * Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with: - 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3) + Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5) - Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season - Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank - Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3) - Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation - Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings - Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement - Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table - 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav, which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the redundant sport-specific pages. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer, snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy- initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility). Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000 iterations to eliminate flakiness. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard - cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across all events instead of just the target event - cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix all remaining code review issues - cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string - cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only simulating the remaining stages during live events - admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast - cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic; remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars - cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted() - cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import - cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR * Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730). With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of the time in CI despite 1000 iterations. Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin. https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
cs2_major_qualifying_points: {
info: { name: "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 916) are sub-ranked by W-L record." },
create: () => new CSMajorSimulator(),
},
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
};
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
const entry = REGISTRY[simulatorType];
if (!entry) {
throw new Error(
`No simulator registered for type: "${simulatorType}". ` +
`Add a simulator to app/services/simulations/registry.ts.`
);
}
return entry.create();
}
export function getSimulatorInfo(simulatorType: SimulatorType): SimulatorInfo | null {
return REGISTRY[simulatorType]?.info ?? null;
}