Merge pull request 'llws ev' (#144) from claude/llws-ev-calculation-bug-30xpxg into main

app/components/scoring/NbaBracketLayout.tsx

@@ -108,6 +108,8 @@ export function NbaBracketLayout({
           ownershipMap={ownershipMap}
           userParticipantIds={userParticipantIds}
           firstScoringRoundIdx={scoringRoundIdx}
+          feeders={feeders}
+          template={template}
         />
       </div>
     </>

app/components/scoring/__tests__/NbaBracketLayout.test.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { render, within } from "@testing-library/react";
+import { NbaBracketLayout } from "../NbaBracketLayout";
+import { buildFeederMap } from "~/lib/bracket-layout";
+import type { BracketTemplate } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
+import type { BracketMatch } from "../BracketTreeView";
+
+/**
+ * NbaBracketLayout renders a desktop view and a mobile pager side by side, hidden from
+ * each other by Tailwind breakpoints. Both need `feeders` and `template` — without them
+ * bracketGeometry falls back to index-derived positions and an unplayed slot reads "TBD"
+ * where the feeder graph would name the game it is waiting on.
+ */
+
+const TEMPLATE: BracketTemplate = {
+  id: "test_conf_4",
+  name: "Two-conference test bracket",
+  totalTeams: 4,
+  scoringStartsAtRound: "Final",
+  rounds: [
+    { name: "Semis", matchCount: 2, feedsInto: "Final", isScoring: false },
+    { name: "Final", matchCount: 1, feedsInto: null, isScoring: true },
+  ],
+  conferenceGroups: [
+    { name: "East", roundMatchNumbers: { Semis: [1] } },
+    { name: "West", roundMatchNumbers: { Semis: [2] } },
+  ],
+};
+
+const ROUNDS = ["Semis", "Final"];
+
+function match(
+  round: string,
+  matchNumber: number,
+  overrides: Partial<BracketMatch> = {}
+): BracketMatch {
+  return {
+    id: `${round}-${matchNumber}`,
+    round,
+    matchNumber,
+    participant1Id: null,
+    participant2Id: null,
+    winnerId: null,
+    loserId: null,
+    isComplete: false,
+    participant1Score: null,
+    participant2Score: null,
+    ...overrides,
+  } as BracketMatch;
+}
+
+/** Semis are played; the Final's two slots are still empty. */
+const MATCHES_BY_ROUND = new Map<string, BracketMatch[]>([
+  [
+    "Semis",
+    [
+      match("Semis", 1, { participant1Id: "p1", participant2Id: "p2" }),
+      match("Semis", 2, { participant1Id: "p3", participant2Id: "p4" }),
+    ],
+  ],
+  ["Final", [match("Final", 1)]],
+]);
+
+function renderLayout(withGraph: boolean) {
+  const { container } = render(
+    <NbaBracketLayout
+      matches={[...MATCHES_BY_ROUND.values()].flat()}
+      rounds={ROUNDS}
+      matchesByRound={MATCHES_BY_ROUND}
+      ownershipMap={new Map()}
+      userParticipantIds={new Set()}
+      conferenceGroups={TEMPLATE.conferenceGroups ?? []}
+      scoringRoundIdx={1}
+      feeders={withGraph ? buildFeederMap(TEMPLATE) : undefined}
+      template={withGraph ? TEMPLATE : undefined}
+    />
+  );
+
+  // Both panes render in jsdom — media queries are class-based, not applied — so scope
+  // each assertion to the pane it is about.
+  const mobile = container.querySelector<HTMLElement>(".md\\:hidden");
+  const desktop = container.querySelector<HTMLElement>(".md\\:flex");
+  if (!mobile || !desktop) throw new Error("Expected both a mobile and a desktop pane");
+  return { mobile, desktop };
+}
+
+describe("NbaBracketLayout", () => {
+  it("names the feeding game in the mobile pager", () => {
+    // Only slots filled by advancement get a label; a directly seeded slot with no
+    // participant still reads "TBD", which is why this asserts on the Final's slots.
+    const { mobile } = renderLayout(true);
+
+    expect(within(mobile).getAllByText(/Winner of/).length).toBe(2);
+  });
+
+  it("shows the mobile pager the same slot labels as the desktop view", () => {
+    const { mobile, desktop } = renderLayout(true);
+
+    const labels = (pane: HTMLElement) =>
+      within(pane)
+        .getAllByText(/Winner of/)
+        .map((el) => el.textContent)
+        .toSorted();
+
+    expect(labels(mobile)).toEqual(labels(desktop));
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to TBD when the feeder graph is unavailable", () => {
+    // Guards the assertions above: without feeders/template there is nothing to name a
+    // slot with, which is exactly the state the mobile pane was stuck in.
+    const { mobile } = renderLayout(false);
+
+    expect(within(mobile).queryByText(/Winner of/)).toBeNull();
+    expect(within(mobile).getAllByText("TBD").length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/bracket-template-lookup.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+import { describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason,
+  getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons,
+} from "../bracket-template";
+
+/**
+ * A sports season can own several scoring events — a bracket plus schedule events, or a
+ * re-created bracket alongside a stale one. Resolving the template from an arbitrary row
+ * is not harmless: calculateBracketPoints falls back to the flat 5th–8th average when the
+ * template id is null, so losing "llws_20" makes a team locked into 5th–6th and one
+ * locked into 7th–8th both score 20.
+ */
+
+/**
+ * Minimal db stub. Applies the same filter and ordering the real query does, so the
+ * assertions exercise the helper's row-picking rather than re-stating the query.
+ */
+function makeDb(
+  rows: Array<{ sportsSeasonId: string; bracketTemplateId: string | null; createdAt: Date }>
+) {
+  const findMany = vi.fn(async () =>
+    rows
+      .filter((row) => row.bracketTemplateId !== null)
+      .toSorted((a, b) => b.createdAt.getTime() - a.createdAt.getTime())
+  );
+  return { db: { query: { scoringEvents: { findMany } } } as any, findMany };
+}
+
+describe("getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason", () => {
+  it("ignores a non-bracket event and returns the bracket event's template", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-07-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBe("llws_20");
+  });
+
+  it("takes the most recent bracket event when a stale one is still around", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "simple_16", createdAt: new Date("2026-06-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBe("llws_20");
+  });
+
+  it("returns null when the season has no bracket event", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe("getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons", () => {
+  it("resolves each season independently in one query", async () => {
+    const { db, findMany } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss2", bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-02") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss3", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-03") },
+    ]);
+
+    const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(["ss1", "ss2", "ss3"], db);
+
+    expect(resolved.get("ss1")).toBe("llws_20");
+    expect(resolved.get("ss2")).toBe("afl_10");
+    expect(resolved.get("ss3")).toBeNull();
+    expect(findMany).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+  });
+
+  it("gives every requested season an entry so callers can cache the miss", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([]);
+
+    const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(["ss1", "ss2"], db);
+
+    expect([...resolved.entries()]).toEqual([
+      ["ss1", null],
+      ["ss2", null],
+    ]);
+  });
+
+  it("does not query at all for an empty season list", async () => {
+    const { db, findMany } = makeDb([]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([], db)).resolves.toEqual(new Map());
+    expect(findMany).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/team-projected-score.test.ts

@@ -80,6 +80,9 @@ function makeDb(
       },
       scoringEvents: {
         findFirst: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue({ bracketTemplateId: null }),
+        // getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons filters to events that carry a
+        // template, so "no bracket template" is an empty result, not a null row.
+        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
       },
       seasonParticipantResults: {
         findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(seasonResults),

app/models/bracket-template.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+import { and, desc, inArray, isNotNull } from "drizzle-orm";
+
+/**
+ * Resolve which bracket template a sports season's placements should be scored against.
+ *
+ * A sports season can own several scoring events — a bracket plus schedule events, or a
+ * re-created bracket alongside a stale one — and only some of them carry a
+ * bracketTemplateId. Picking an arbitrary row is not harmless: calculateBracketPoints
+ * falls back to the standard single 5th–8th tier when the template id is null, which
+ * silently collapses the two-tier templates (llws_20, afl_10) so a team locked into
+ * 5th–6th and one locked into 7th–8th both score the flat 5–8 average. The 3rd/4th
+ * distinction that llws_20 and fifa_48 have goes the same way.
+ *
+ * So: only events that actually carry a template are considered, most recent first —
+ * matching the "a re-created event wins over a stale one" rule the LLWS simulator uses
+ * when it picks its bracket event.
+ *
+ * Every requested season gets an entry, null when it has no bracket event, so callers
+ * can cache the negative result too.
+ */
+export async function getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(
+  sportsSeasonIds: string[],
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<Map<string, string | null>> {
+  const resolved = new Map<string, string | null>(
+    sportsSeasonIds.map((id) => [id, null])
+  );
+  if (sportsSeasonIds.length === 0) return resolved;
+
+  const db = providedDb || database();
+
+  const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
+    where: and(
+      inArray(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonIds),
+      isNotNull(schema.scoringEvents.bracketTemplateId)
+    ),
+    columns: { sportsSeasonId: true, bracketTemplateId: true },
+    // createdAt can tie when a bracket is generated in the same transaction as a
+    // sibling event, so id breaks the tie and keeps the choice deterministic.
+    orderBy: [desc(schema.scoringEvents.createdAt), desc(schema.scoringEvents.id)],
+  });
+
+  for (const event of events) {
+    // Ordered newest-first, so the first row seen for a season is the one to keep.
+    // The isNotNull filter means bracketTemplateId is set, but a mocked or partial row
+    // could still carry null — skip those rather than caching a null as a real answer.
+    if (resolved.get(event.sportsSeasonId) === null && event.bracketTemplateId) {
+      resolved.set(event.sportsSeasonId, event.bracketTemplateId);
+    }
+  }
+
+  return resolved;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Single-season form of getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons.
+ */
+export async function getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(
+  sportsSeasonId: string,
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<string | null> {
+  const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([sportsSeasonId], providedDb);
+  return resolved.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
+}

app/models/draft-pick.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   calculateBracketPoints,
   calculateSharedPlacementPoints,
 } from "./scoring-rules";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons } from "./bracket-template";
 
 export async function createDraftPick(data: {
   seasonId: string;
@@ -175,18 +176,10 @@ export async function getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints(
   }
 
   // Batch-fetch bracket template IDs (one per sports season)
-  const bracketTemplateMap = new Map<string, string | null>();
-  if (bracketSeasonIds.size > 0) {
-    const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
-      where: inArray(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, [...bracketSeasonIds]),
-      columns: { sportsSeasonId: true, bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    for (const ev of events) {
-      if (!bracketTemplateMap.has(ev.sportsSeasonId)) {
-        bracketTemplateMap.set(ev.sportsSeasonId, ev.bracketTemplateId ?? null);
-      }
-    }
-  }
+  const bracketTemplateMap =
+    bracketSeasonIds.size > 0
+      ? await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([...bracketSeasonIds], db)
+      : new Map<string, string | null>();
 
   // Batch-fetch QP totals for qualifying_points participants
   const qpMap = new Map<string, number>(); // participantId → totalQP

app/models/participant-result.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { eq, and, inArray } from "drizzle-orm";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 
@@ -104,6 +104,33 @@ export async function deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId(
     .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantResults.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
 }
 
+/**
+ * Delete the results of specific participants within one sports season.
+ *
+ * The season-wide delete above is too blunt for a single bracket: results are keyed by
+ * sports season, not by event, so wiping the season takes every other event's placements
+ * with it. Scoping to the participants a bracket actually holds lets reprocess-bracket
+ * rebuild that bracket from scratch while leaving the rest of the season alone.
+ *
+ * No-ops on an empty id list — `inArray` with no values is not a valid SQL predicate.
+ */
+export async function deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants(
+  sportsSeasonId: string,
+  participantIds: string[],
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<void> {
+  if (participantIds.length === 0) return;
+  const db = providedDb || database();
+  await db
+    .delete(schema.seasonParticipantResults)
+    .where(
+      and(
+        eq(schema.seasonParticipantResults.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
+        inArray(schema.seasonParticipantResults.participantId, participantIds)
+      )
+    );
+}
+
 /**
  * Set result for a participant in a sports season
  * Points are calculated on-demand based on each fantasy league's scoring rules

app/models/scoring-calculator.ts

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import { doesLoserAdvance, findPlayoffMatchesByEventId } from "~/models/playoff-
 import { getUserDisplayName } from "~/models/user";
 import { findDiscordIdsByUserIds } from "~/models/account";
 import { createDailySnapshot } from "~/models/standings";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason } from "~/models/bracket-template";
 import { recordMatchScoreEvents } from "~/models/team-score-events";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { getEventResults } from "./event-result";
@@ -1465,11 +1466,7 @@ export async function calculateTeamScore(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }
@@ -1578,11 +1575,7 @@ export async function calculateTeamProjectedScore(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }

app/models/standings.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import type { TeamStanding, TeamStandingSnapshot, TeamStandingWithChange } from
 import { calculateBracketPoints, calculateFantasyPoints } from "~/models/scoring-rules";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { getParticipantEV } from "./participant-expected-value";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason } from "./bracket-template";
 import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
 
 // Re-export types from shared types file
@@ -163,11 +164,7 @@ export async function getTeamScoreBreakdown(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }

app/routes/__tests__/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+import { describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+
+/**
+ * The Expected Values admin page renders EV from the stored probability columns.
+ *
+ * It used to carry its own hardcoded scoring table (100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20), which
+ * flattened positions 5–8 to 20 points each. For a standard single-elimination bracket
+ * that was invisible — all four quarterfinal losers share one tier worth
+ * avg(25,25,15,15) = 20 anyway — but for the templates that split 5–8 into two tiers
+ * (llws_20, afl_10) it reported a team locked into 5th–6th and a team locked into
+ * 7th–8th as the same 20 points. These pin it to the shared DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES.
+ */
+
+vi.mock("../admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.server", () => ({
+  loader: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+import { evFromProbs } from "../admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values";
+
+const ZERO = {
+  probFirst: "0", probSecond: "0", probThird: "0", probFourth: "0",
+  probFifth: "0", probSixth: "0", probSeventh: "0", probEighth: "0",
+};
+
+describe("evFromProbs", () => {
+  it("gives a team locked into the 5th–6th tier 25 points, not 20", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFifth: "0.5", probSixth: "0.5" })).toBe(25);
+  });
+
+  it("gives a team locked into the 7th–8th tier 15 points, not 20", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSeventh: "0.5", probEighth: "0.5" })).toBe(15);
+  });
+
+  it("still gives a single 5th–8th tier (4 QF losers) 20 points", () => {
+    const ev = evFromProbs({
+      ...ZERO,
+      probFifth: "0.25", probSixth: "0.25", probSeventh: "0.25", probEighth: "0.25",
+    });
+    expect(ev).toBe(20);
+  });
+
+  it("keeps 3rd and 4th distinct rather than a flat 45 each", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probThird: "1" })).toBe(50);
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFourth: "1" })).toBe(40);
+  });
+
+  it("preserves the 340 total-EV invariant across a full set of unit columns", () => {
+    const perPosition = [
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFirst: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSecond: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probThird: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFourth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFifth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSixth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSeventh: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probEighth: "1" }),
+    ];
+    expect(perPosition.reduce((sum, ev) => sum + ev, 0)).toBe(340);
+  });
+
+  it("returns 0 for a participant with no probability mass", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs(ZERO)).toBe(0);
+  });
+});

app/routes/__tests__/admin.sports-seasons.bracket.generate.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,203 @@
+/**
+ * generate-bracket banks the floors a seeding guarantees before anyone plays (an AFL
+ * top-4 seed cannot finish below the 5th-6th tier). Those floors only reach
+ * teamStandings.totalPoints through a standings recalculation, so the action has to be
+ * sure one ran — markEliminatedAndAnnounce runs one for its Discord announcement in some
+ * cases but not others.
+ */
+
+import { beforeEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+import { generateBracketFromTemplate } from "~/models/playoff-match";
+import {
+  findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId,
+  setParticipantResult,
+} from "~/models/participant-result";
+import {
+  applyBracketEntryFloors,
+  recalculateAffectedLeagues,
+} from "~/models/scoring-calculator";
+import { getScoringEventById, updateScoringEvent } from "~/models/scoring-event";
+import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/season-participant";
+import { action } from "../admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server";
+
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({ database: vi.fn(() => ({})) }));
+vi.mock("~/models/scoring-event", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  getScoringEventById: vi.fn(),
+  updateScoringEvent: vi.fn(),
+  isReadOnlySibling: vi.fn(() => false),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/playoff-match", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  generateBracketFromTemplate: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/participant-result", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId: vi.fn(),
+  setParticipantResult: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/scoring-calculator", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  applyBracketEntryFloors: vi.fn(),
+  recalculateAffectedLeagues: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/season-participant", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+const params = { id: "season-1", eventId: "event-1" };
+
+const EVENT = {
+  id: "event-1",
+  name: "AFL Finals",
+  sportsSeasonId: "season-1",
+  isQualifyingEvent: false,
+  bracketTemplateId: "afl_10",
+};
+
+/** afl_10 takes exactly 10 seeded participants. */
+const SEEDED = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, i) => `seed-${i + 1}`);
+
+function generateRequest(): Request {
+  const body = new FormData();
+  body.set("intent", "generate-bracket");
+  body.set("templateId", "afl_10");
+  SEEDED.forEach((id, i) => body.set(`participant${i}`, id));
+  return new Request("http://localhost/generate", { method: "POST", body });
+}
+
+const run = (request: Request) =>
+  (action as unknown as (args: { request: Request; params: typeof params }) => Promise<{
+    error?: string;
+    success?: string;
+  }>)({ request, params });
+
+/**
+ * @param extras participants in the season beyond the 10 seeded into the bracket —
+ *   these are the ones generate-bracket marks eliminated.
+ * @param withExistingResults ids that already carry a result row, so
+ *   markEliminatedAndAnnounce treats them as not newly eliminated.
+ */
+function setSeason(extras: string[], withExistingResults: string[] = []) {
+  vi.mocked(findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId).mockResolvedValue(
+    [...SEEDED, ...extras].map((id) => ({ id })) as unknown as Awaited<
+      ReturnType<typeof findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId>
+    >
+  );
+  vi.mocked(findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).mockResolvedValue(
+    withExistingResults.map((participantId) => ({ participantId })) as unknown as Awaited<
+      ReturnType<typeof findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId>
+    >
+  );
+}
+
+describe("generate-bracket entry-floor standings recalculation", () => {
+  beforeEach(() => {
+    vi.clearAllMocks();
+    vi.mocked(getScoringEventById).mockResolvedValue(
+      EVENT as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof getScoringEventById>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(generateBracketFromTemplate).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof generateBracketFromTemplate>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(updateScoringEvent).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof updateScoringEvent>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(setParticipantResult).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof setParticipantResult>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(recalculateAffectedLeagues).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof recalculateAffectedLeagues>>
+    );
+    // afl_10 seeds 1-4 into the Qualifying Finals, whose entry floor is the 5th-6th tier.
+    vi.mocked(applyBracketEntryFloors).mockResolvedValue(4);
+  });
+
+  it("recalculates when every eliminated team already had a result row", async () => {
+    // The second run of a generation: the first wrote position 0 for the non-bracket
+    // participants, so nobody is *newly* eliminated and the announcement is skipped.
+    // The floors banked moments ago would never reach the standings.
+    setSeason(["extra-1"], ["extra-1"]);
+
+    const result = await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(result.success).toBeDefined();
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+      "season-1",
+      expect.anything(),
+      expect.objectContaining({ skipDiscord: true })
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("recalculates for a qualifying event, which never announces eliminations", async () => {
+    vi.mocked(getScoringEventById).mockResolvedValue(
+      { ...EVENT, isQualifyingEvent: true } as unknown as Awaited<
+        ReturnType<typeof getScoringEventById>
+      >
+    );
+    setSeason(["extra-1"]);
+
+    await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+      "season-1",
+      expect.anything(),
+      expect.objectContaining({ skipDiscord: true })
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("recalculates when the bracket field is the whole season", async () => {
+    setSeason([]);
+
+    await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+  });
+
+  it("recalculates when the elimination announcement threw", async () => {
+    // The announcement is best-effort and its failure is swallowed — but a failed recalc
+    // is exactly when the floors still need one.
+    setSeason(["extra-1"]);
+    vi.mocked(recalculateAffectedLeagues)
+      .mockRejectedValueOnce(new Error("discord down"))
+      .mockResolvedValue(undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof recalculateAffectedLeagues>>);
+
+    const result = await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(result.success).toBeDefined();
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(2);
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenLastCalledWith(
+      "season-1",
+      expect.anything(),
+      expect.objectContaining({ skipDiscord: true })
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("does not recalculate twice when the announcement already did", async () => {
+    setSeason(["extra-1"]);
+
+    await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    // The announcing call, not the floor fallback.
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+      "season-1",
+      expect.anything(),
+      expect.objectContaining({ eliminatedParticipantIds: ["extra-1"] })
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("does not recalculate at all when no floors were banked", async () => {
+    // A template that guarantees nothing at seeding: no floors, nobody to eliminate,
+    // so there is nothing for a recalculation to pick up.
+    vi.mocked(applyBracketEntryFloors).mockResolvedValue(0);
+    setSeason([]);
+
+    await run(generateRequest());
+
+    expect(recalculateAffectedLeagues).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

app/routes/__tests__/admin.sports-seasons.bracket.reprocess.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,208 @@
+/**
+ * reprocess-bracket rebuilds a bracket's placements from scratch. What it wipes first
+ * decides whether the clear-bracket → regenerate → reprocess repair path actually works,
+ * and whether it takes the rest of the season's placements down with it.
+ */
+
+import { beforeEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+import { findPlayoffMatchesByEventId } from "~/models/playoff-match";
+import {
+  deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId,
+  deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants,
+  setParticipantResult,
+} from "~/models/participant-result";
+import {
+  applyBracketEntryFloors,
+  processMatchResult,
+  processQualifyingBracketEvent,
+  recalculateAffectedLeagues,
+} from "~/models/scoring-calculator";
+import { getScoringEventById } from "~/models/scoring-event";
+import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/season-participant";
+import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
+import { action } from "../admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server";
+
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({ database: vi.fn(() => ({})) }));
+vi.mock("~/models/scoring-event", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  getScoringEventById: vi.fn(),
+  updateScoringEvent: vi.fn(),
+  isReadOnlySibling: vi.fn(() => false),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/playoff-match", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  findPlayoffMatchesByEventId: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/participant-result", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId: vi.fn(),
+  deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants: vi.fn(),
+  setParticipantResult: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/scoring-calculator", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  applyBracketEntryFloors: vi.fn(),
+  processMatchResult: vi.fn(),
+  recalculateAffectedLeagues: vi.fn(),
+  processQualifyingBracketEvent: vi.fn(),
+  finalizeQualifyingPoints: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/season-participant", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId: vi.fn(),
+}));
+vi.mock("~/models/sports-season", async (importOriginal) => ({
+  ...(await importOriginal<object>()),
+  findSportsSeasonById: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+const params = { id: "season-1", eventId: "event-1" };
+
+const EVENT = {
+  id: "event-1",
+  name: "AFL Finals",
+  sportsSeasonId: "season-1",
+  isQualifyingEvent: false,
+  isPrimary: false,
+  tournamentId: null,
+  bracketTemplateId: "afl_10",
+};
+
+function reprocessRequest(): Request {
+  const body = new FormData();
+  body.set("intent", "reprocess-bracket");
+  return new Request("http://localhost/reprocess", { method: "POST", body });
+}
+
+/** A seeded, unplayed bracket slot. */
+function slot(matchNumber: number, participant1Id: string, participant2Id: string) {
+  return {
+    id: `m-${matchNumber}`,
+    round: "Qualifying Finals",
+    matchNumber,
+    participant1Id,
+    participant2Id,
+    winnerId: null,
+    loserId: null,
+    isComplete: false,
+    isScoring: true,
+  };
+}
+
+const run = (request: Request) =>
+  (action as unknown as (args: { request: Request; params: typeof params }) => Promise<{
+    error?: string;
+    success?: string;
+  }>)({ request, params });
+
+function setEvent(overrides: Partial<typeof EVENT> = {}) {
+  vi.mocked(getScoringEventById).mockResolvedValue(
+    { ...EVENT, ...overrides } as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof getScoringEventById>>
+  );
+}
+
+function setMatches(matches: ReturnType<typeof slot>[]) {
+  vi.mocked(findPlayoffMatchesByEventId).mockResolvedValue(
+    matches as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof findPlayoffMatchesByEventId>>
+  );
+}
+
+describe("reprocess-bracket", () => {
+  beforeEach(() => {
+    vi.clearAllMocks();
+    setEvent();
+    vi.mocked(applyBracketEntryFloors).mockResolvedValue(4);
+    vi.mocked(findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId).mockResolvedValue(
+      [] as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(setParticipantResult).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof setParticipantResult>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(recalculateAffectedLeagues).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof recalculateAffectedLeagues>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(processMatchResult).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof processMatchResult>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(processQualifyingBracketEvent).mockResolvedValue(
+      undefined as unknown as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof processQualifyingBracketEvent>>
+    );
+    vi.mocked(findSportsSeasonById).mockResolvedValue(
+      { qualifyingPointsFinalized: false } as unknown as Awaited<
+        ReturnType<typeof findSportsSeasonById>
+      >
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("clears placements even when no match has been played", async () => {
+    // The clear-bracket → regenerate → reprocess repair path lands here: the freshly
+    // re-seeded bracket has nothing completed, yet the discarded bracket's finalized
+    // placements are exactly what has to go. Skipping the wipe leaves them permanently,
+    // because upsertParticipantResult refuses to un-finalize a result.
+    setMatches([slot(1, "p1", "p2"), slot(2, "p3", "p4")]);
+
+    const result = await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    expect(result.success).toBeDefined();
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+    const [sportsSeasonId, ids] = vi.mocked(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).mock.calls[0];
+    expect(sportsSeasonId).toBe("season-1");
+    expect([...ids].toSorted()).toEqual(["p1", "p2", "p3", "p4"]);
+  });
+
+  it("scopes the wipe to this bracket, never the whole season", async () => {
+    // A season-wide delete would take every other event's placements with it, with only
+    // this bracket's replay able to rebuild them.
+    setMatches([slot(1, "p1", "p2")]);
+
+    await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+    const [, ids] = vi.mocked(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).mock.calls[0];
+    expect(ids).not.toContain("p3");
+  });
+
+  it("passes each participant once when a team appears in more than one slot", async () => {
+    setMatches([slot(1, "p1", "p2"), slot(2, "p1", "p3")]);
+
+    await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    const [, ids] = vi.mocked(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).mock.calls[0];
+    expect(ids).toHaveLength(3);
+    expect([...ids].toSorted()).toEqual(["p1", "p2", "p3"]);
+  });
+
+  it("skips empty slots rather than passing nulls through", async () => {
+    setMatches([
+      { ...slot(1, "p1", "p2"), participant2Id: null as unknown as string },
+    ]);
+
+    await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    const [, ids] = vi.mocked(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).mock.calls[0];
+    expect(ids).toEqual(["p1"]);
+  });
+
+  it("still takes the season-wide delete for a qualifying event", async () => {
+    // Qualifying seasons have no legitimate per-major fantasy placements — those come
+    // from finalizeQualifyingPoints across all majors — so that path wipes the season
+    // on purpose and rebuilds QP from the bracket.
+    setEvent({ isQualifyingEvent: true });
+    setMatches([slot(1, "p1", "p2")]);
+
+    await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).toHaveBeenCalledWith("season-1", {});
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+
+  it("rejects an event with no bracket rather than wiping anything", async () => {
+    setMatches([]);
+
+    const result = await run(reprocessRequest());
+
+    expect(result.error).toContain("No bracket to reprocess");
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+    expect(deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts

@@ -44,6 +44,7 @@ import {
   setParticipantResult,
   findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId,
   deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId,
+  deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants,
 } from "~/models/participant-result";
 import { findSeasonSportsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/season-sport";
 import { createDailySnapshot } from "~/models/standings";
@@ -171,7 +172,7 @@ async function scoreQualifyingBracket(
 /**
  * Mark the given participants as eliminated (finalPosition = 0) and, for fantasy
  * (non-qualifying) events, announce the teams newly eliminated by this run to the
- * affected leagues' Discord channels. Returns the number of participants marked.
+ * affected leagues' Discord channels.
  *
  * "Newly eliminated" = participants with no prior result row, so re-running a
  * generation step never re-announces the same teams. The announcement is a
@@ -179,11 +180,18 @@ async function scoreQualifyingBracket(
  * the eliminations themselves are already committed. eventId is deliberately
  * omitted from the recalc call so the announcement doesn't pull in unrelated
  * completed matches as "Scored Matches".
+ *
+ * Returns the number of participants marked alongside whether a standings recalculation
+ * actually ran. The caller banks entry floors before calling this and needs them to
+ * reach teamStandings.totalPoints; it cannot infer that from the participant count,
+ * because the recalc is skipped for qualifying events, when every eliminated team
+ * already had a result row (the second run of a generation), and when the announcement
+ * threw. `recalculated` reports the fact rather than making the caller re-derive it.
  */
 async function markEliminatedAndAnnounce(
   event: { id: string; name: string | null; sportsSeasonId: string; isQualifyingEvent: boolean },
   participantIds: string[]
-): Promise<number> {
+): Promise<{ markedCount: number; recalculated: boolean }> {
   const existingResults = await findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId(event.sportsSeasonId);
   const alreadyHadResult = new Set(existingResults.map((r) => r.participantId));
   const newlyEliminatedIds = participantIds.filter((id) => !alreadyHadResult.has(id));
@@ -192,6 +200,8 @@ async function markEliminatedAndAnnounce(
     await setParticipantResult(participantId, event.sportsSeasonId, 0);
   }
 
+  let recalculated = false;
+
   // QPs (e.g. tennis/CS2 majors) don't get elimination announcements.
   if (!event.isQualifyingEvent && newlyEliminatedIds.length > 0) {
     try {
@@ -199,12 +209,13 @@ async function markEliminatedAndAnnounce(
         eventName: event.name ?? undefined,
         eliminatedParticipantIds: newlyEliminatedIds,
       });
+      recalculated = true;
     } catch (err) {
       logger.error("[Eliminations] Discord announcement failed:", err);
     }
   }
 
-  return participantIds.length;
+  return { markedCount: participantIds.length, recalculated };
 }
 
 export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
@@ -423,14 +434,17 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
         const toEliminate = allParticipants
           .filter((p) => !participantsInBracket.has(p.id))
           .map((p) => p.id);
-        const eliminatedCount = await markEliminatedAndAnnounce(event, toEliminate);
-        logger.log(`[BracketGeneration] Marked ${eliminatedCount} participants as eliminated`);
+        const { markedCount, recalculated } = await markEliminatedAndAnnounce(event, toEliminate);
+        logger.log(`[BracketGeneration] Marked ${markedCount} participants as eliminated`);
 
-        // markEliminatedAndAnnounce recalculates standings only when it actually
-        // eliminated somebody. When the bracket field is the whole season (nothing to
-        // eliminate) the entry floors above would never reach teamStandings.totalPoints,
-        // so recalculate here. skipDiscord: seeding floors are not a result to announce.
-        if (toEliminate.length === 0 && entryFloorCount > 0) {
+        // The floors banked above only reach teamStandings.totalPoints via a recalc, and
+        // markEliminatedAndAnnounce runs one for its announcement in some cases but not
+        // others: not for a qualifying event, not when every eliminated team already had
+        // a result row (the second run of a generation, since the first wrote 0 for all
+        // of them), not when there was nobody to eliminate, and not when the announcement
+        // threw. Drive off what it reports rather than re-deriving it from toEliminate.
+        // skipDiscord: seeding floors are not a result to announce.
+        if (entryFloorCount > 0 && !recalculated) {
           await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, database(), {
             eventName: event.name ?? undefined,
             skipDiscord: true,
@@ -910,19 +924,31 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
         return { error: "No bracket to reprocess" };
       }
 
-      // Delete ALL results for this sports season and rebuild from scratch.
-      // Only deleting partial rows leaves stale finalized rows that block
-      // the "never un-finalize" guard in upsertParticipantResult.
+      // Wipe this bracket's participants' results and rebuild from scratch. Deleting
+      // only the partial rows would leave stale finalized ones, which the "never
+      // un-finalize" guard in upsertParticipantResult then refuses to correct.
       //
-      // seasonParticipantResults is keyed by sports season, not by event, so this
-      // wipes every event's placements in the season and only the replay below can
-      // rebuild them (the same hazard clear-bracket documents). With nothing to
-      // replay there is nothing to rebuild from, so skip it entirely: applying entry
-      // floors and re-marking eliminations below is additive and needs no wipe.
+      // Scoped to the participants this bracket actually holds, not the whole season:
+      // seasonParticipantResults is keyed by sports season, not by event, so a
+      // season-wide delete takes every other event's placements with it and only this
+      // bracket's replay could rebuild them (the hazard clear-bracket documents).
+      //
+      // Unconditional, because zero completed matches is precisely the clear-bracket →
+      // regenerate → reprocess repair path: the discarded bracket's finalized
+      // placements are exactly what needs clearing, and there is always something to
+      // rebuild from — the entry floors below, then the replay.
       const db = database();
-      if (completed.length > 0) {
-        await deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId(event.sportsSeasonId, db);
+      // Reused further down to decide who is *not* in the bracket and so eliminated.
+      const bracketParticipantIds = new Set<string>();
+      for (const match of matches) {
+        if (match.participant1Id) bracketParticipantIds.add(match.participant1Id);
+        if (match.participant2Id) bracketParticipantIds.add(match.participant2Id);
       }
+      await deleteParticipantResultsForParticipants(
+        event.sportsSeasonId,
+        [...bracketParticipantIds],
+        db
+      );
 
       // Re-bank the seeding-derived floors the delete above wipes (e.g. the AFL
       // top-4's 5th-6th tier). Done before the replay so real match results overwrite
@@ -968,11 +994,6 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       // Mark participants NOT in any bracket match as eliminated (finalPosition = 0).
       // This covers teams that didn't make the playoffs/play-in tournament.
       const allParticipants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
-      const bracketParticipantIds = new Set<string>();
-      for (const match of matches) {
-        if (match.participant1Id) bracketParticipantIds.add(match.participant1Id);
-        if (match.participant2Id) bracketParticipantIds.add(match.participant2Id);
-      }
       let eliminatedCount = 0;
       for (const participant of allParticipants) {
         if (!bracketParticipantIds.has(participant.id)) {
@@ -1178,7 +1199,10 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       const toEliminate = allParticipants
         .filter((p) => !uniqueParticipants.has(p.id))
         .map((p) => p.id);
-      const eliminatedCount = await markEliminatedAndAnnounce(groupsEvent, toEliminate);
+      const { markedCount: eliminatedCount } = await markEliminatedAndAnnounce(
+        groupsEvent,
+        toEliminate
+      );
 
       return {
         success: `Groups and knockout bracket structure created successfully${eliminatedCount > 0 ? ` (${eliminatedCount} participant(s) not in any group marked as eliminated)` : ""}`,

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.server.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import {
   batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
   getAllParticipantEVsForSeason
 } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
 
 export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
@@ -27,17 +28,6 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   };
 }
 
-const scoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
   const formData = await request.formData();
 
@@ -58,7 +48,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
         probSeventh: parseFloat(formData.get(`probSeventh_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
         probEighth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probEighth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
       },
-      scoringRules,
+      scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
       source: "manual" as const,
     }));
 

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.tsx

@@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ import {
   TableRow,
 } from "~/components/ui/table";
 import { ArrowLeft, Calculator } from "lucide-react";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
+import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
 
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Expected Values — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
@@ -26,9 +28,18 @@ export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
 
 export { loader };
 
-// DEFAULT scoring values — must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in the simulate route.
-// Scoring: 1st=100, 2nd=70, 3rd/4th (FF losers)=45 each, 5th–8th (E8 losers)=20 each.
-// Sum = 100+70+45+45+20+20+20+20 = 340.
+// EV is shown on the same reference scale the runner persists it with: a sports season
+// is shared across leagues with different scoring, so DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES is the
+// common scale and each league re-derives its own EV from the stored probabilities
+// (see getPersistenceContext in services/simulations/runner.ts).
+//
+// Scoring: 1st=100, 2nd=70, 3rd=50, 4th=40, 5th/6th=25 each, 7th/8th=15 each.
+// Sum = 100+70+50+40+25+25+15+15 = 340.
+//
+// The 5th–8th values must stay distinct rather than collapsing to a flat 20: templates
+// that split that zone into two tiers (llws_20, afl_10) put a team locked into 5th–6th
+// at probFifth=probSixth=0.5 (EV 25) and one locked into 7th–8th at
+// probSeventh=probEighth=0.5 (EV 15). A flat table reports both as 20.
 //
 // Total EV invariant: Σ EV across all participants = Σ scoring values = 340,
 // because each probability column sums to 1.0 across all participants.
@@ -36,20 +47,23 @@ export { loader };
 //   1. Stale EV records from a prior simulation run (fix: re-run simulation, which now
 //      zeros non-bracket participants automatically)
 //   2. DB precision truncation (numeric(6,4) = 4dp; max drift ≈ ±1 for 68 teams)
-const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const;
-
-function evFromProbs(ev: {
+export function evFromProbs(ev: {
   probFirst: string; probSecond: string; probThird: string; probFourth: string;
   probFifth: string; probSixth: string; probSeventh: string; probEighth: string;
 }): number {
-  return parseFloat(ev.probFirst) * SCORING[0]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSecond) * SCORING[1]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probThird) * SCORING[2]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probFourth) * SCORING[3]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probFifth) * SCORING[4]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSixth) * SCORING[5]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSeventh) * SCORING[6]
-    + parseFloat(ev.probEighth) * SCORING[7];
+  return calculateEV(
+    {
+      probFirst: parseFloat(ev.probFirst),
+      probSecond: parseFloat(ev.probSecond),
+      probThird: parseFloat(ev.probThird),
+      probFourth: parseFloat(ev.probFourth),
+      probFifth: parseFloat(ev.probFifth),
+      probSixth: parseFloat(ev.probSixth),
+      probSeventh: parseFloat(ev.probSeventh),
+      probEighth: parseFloat(ev.probEighth),
+    },
+    DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES
+  );
 }
 
 function fmt(val: string | number) {

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.golf-skills.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,8 @@ import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
 import { getGolfSkillsForSeason, batchUpsertGolfSkills } from '~/models/golf-skills';
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
 import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
 import { database } from '~/database/context';
 import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
@@ -28,17 +29,6 @@ import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react';
 import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle, UserPlus } from 'lucide-react';
 import { normalizeName, diceCoefficient } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
 
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Golf Skills — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? 'Sports Season'} - Brackt Admin` }];
 }

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.surface-elo.tsx

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ import {
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
 import { getSurfaceElosForSeason, batchUpsertSurfaceElos } from '~/models/surface-elo';
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
 import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
 import { database } from '~/database/context';
 import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
@@ -30,17 +31,6 @@ import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react';
 import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle, UserPlus } from 'lucide-react';
 import { normalizeName, diceCoefficient } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
 
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Surface Elo — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
 }

app/services/probability-updater.ts

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import type { ProbabilityDistribution } from "./ev-calculator";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
 
 /**
  * Result of probability update operation
@@ -137,18 +138,9 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
         .map(r => [r.participantId, r.finalPosition ?? 0])
     );
 
-    // Update finished participants
-    // Use default scoring rules (we only care about setting probabilities, not EV for finished)
-    const defaultScoringRules = {
-      pointsFor1st: 100,
-      pointsFor2nd: 70,
-      pointsFor3rd: 50,
-      pointsFor4th: 40,
-      pointsFor5th: 25,
-      pointsFor6th: 25,
-      pointsFor7th: 15,
-      pointsFor8th: 15,
-    };
+    // Update finished participants. The shared default table is used because we only
+    // care about setting probabilities here, not the EV — each league re-derives its own
+    // EV from the stored probabilities in calculateTeamProjectedScore.
 
     // Sequential: upsertParticipantEV calls syncVorpForSeason internally, which
     // reads and rewrites every seasonParticipants row for this sportsSeasonId.
@@ -162,7 +154,7 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
           participantId,
           sportsSeasonId,
           probabilities,
-          scoringRules: defaultScoringRules,
+          scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
           source: 'manual', // Result is from actual outcome
         });
 
@@ -216,7 +208,7 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
               participantId,
               sportsSeasonId,
               probabilities,
-              scoringRules: defaultScoringRules,
+              scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
               source: 'futures_odds', // Recalculated from remaining odds
             });
 

app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts

@@ -767,6 +767,75 @@ describe("LLWSSimulator", () => {
       expect(results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
     });
 
+    /**
+     * Play out the entire U.S. side, so two of its teams are locked into a scoring tier:
+     * us-7 loses Elimination Round 4 (the 7th-8th tier) and us-9 loses the Elimination
+     * Final (the 5th-6th tier). Every game feeding those two is recorded, which is what
+     * makes the results honorable — makePlayGame only replays a result when the teams
+     * the simulation routed into the game are the pair the result was recorded between.
+     *
+     * Slot order per side is ids[0..7] into the four Opening Round games and ids[8..9]
+     * as the byes, so the U.S. draw is us-1 v us-2, us-3 v us-4, us-5 v us-6,
+     * us-7 v us-8, with us-9 and us-10 entering at Winners Round 2.
+     */
+    function usSidePlayedOut(): PlayoffMatchRow[] {
+      let matches = seededBracket();
+      const play = (round: string, matchNumber: number, winnerId: string, loserId: string) => {
+        matches = completeMatch(matches, round, matchNumber, winnerId, loserId);
+      };
+
+      // Winners bracket
+      play("Opening Round", 1, "us-1", "us-2");
+      play("Opening Round", 2, "us-3", "us-4");
+      play("Opening Round", 3, "us-5", "us-6");
+      play("Opening Round", 4, "us-7", "us-8");
+      play("Winners Round 2", 1, "us-9", "us-1");   // bye us-9 v OP1 winner
+      play("Winners Round 2", 2, "us-10", "us-3");  // bye us-10 v OP2 winner
+      play("Winners Semifinals", 1, "us-5", "us-9");
+      play("Winners Semifinals", 2, "us-10", "us-7");
+      play("Winners Final", 1, "us-5", "us-10");
+
+      // Elimination bracket, including the deliberate cross-overs
+      play("Elimination Round 1", 1, "us-4", "us-6");  // OP2 loser v OP3 loser
+      play("Elimination Round 1", 2, "us-2", "us-8");  // OP1 loser v OP4 loser
+      play("Elimination Round 2", 1, "us-1", "us-4");
+      play("Elimination Round 2", 2, "us-3", "us-2");
+      play("Elimination Round 3", 1, "us-9", "us-3");
+      play("Elimination Round 3", 2, "us-7", "us-1");
+      play("Elimination Round 4", 1, "us-9", "us-7");  // us-7 out: 7th-8th tier
+      play("Elimination Final", 1, "us-10", "us-9");   // us-9 out: 5th-6th tier
+
+      return matches;
+    }
+
+    it("puts a team locked into the 5th-6th tier at exactly 50/50 across those two spots", async () => {
+      setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), favouredEvRows, usSidePlayedOut());
+      const results = await new LLWSSimulator(2_000).simulate("season-1");
+      const locked = probsFor(results, "us-9");
+
+      // The tier is two tied positions, so its probability splits evenly across them.
+      // Under DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES that is 0.5 x 25 + 0.5 x 25 = 25 points of EV —
+      // the 5th-6th tier value, not the flat 5th-8th average of 20.
+      expect(locked.probFifth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probSixth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probSeventh).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probEighth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probFirst + locked.probSecond + locked.probThird + locked.probFourth).toBe(0);
+    });
+
+    it("puts a team locked into the 7th-8th tier at exactly 50/50 across those two spots", async () => {
+      setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), favouredEvRows, usSidePlayedOut());
+      const results = await new LLWSSimulator(2_000).simulate("season-1");
+      const locked = probsFor(results, "us-7");
+
+      // 0.5 x 15 + 0.5 x 15 = 15 points of EV, again distinct from the flat 20.
+      expect(locked.probSeventh).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probEighth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probFifth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probSixth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probFirst + locked.probSecond + locked.probThird + locked.probFourth).toBe(0);
+    });
+
   });
 
   // ── Result-honoring rules ─────────────────────────────────────────────────