* Add golf QP simulator with Plackett-Luce model, fixes#120
- New `participant_golf_skills` table (migration 0061) for SG: Total and
per-major American odds per player/season
- New `app/models/golf-skills.ts` with getGolfSkillsMap, getGolfSkillsForSeason,
batchUpsertGolfSkills
- Full `GolfSimulator` implementation replacing the TODO stub: Plackett-Luce
ranking model (PL_BETA=1.5, FIELD_SIZE=156), 10k Monte Carlo iterations,
awards QP by finishing position, ranks by total QP across all 4 majors
- New admin route `sports-seasons/:id/golf-skills` with bulk CSV import,
fuzzy name matching, per-player SG + per-major odds inputs; saves skills
and auto-runs simulation on submit
- Simulator dropdown on sport admin sorted alphabetically; renamed to
"Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo"
- Golf Skills button shown on sports season admin when simulator type is
golf_qualifying_points
- Extract normalizeName/diceCoefficient to shared `app/lib/fuzzy-match.ts`,
removing duplication from surface-elo and golf-skills routes
- Parallelize 4 DB queries in GolfSimulator.simulate() with Promise.all
- O(1) field array removal via swap-to-end + pop (was O(N) splice)
- Fix source tag: performance_model (not elo_simulation) for SG-based model
- 23 unit tests covering americanToImplied, getMajorOddsKey, resolveSkill,
simulateMajor, and Monte Carlo calibration properties
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint errors: no-non-null-assertion and eqeqeq
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add app/lib/logger.ts: dev passes through to console; prod routes errors
to Sentry.captureException and warnings to Sentry.captureMessage, with
extra context preserved. Uses captureMessage (not captureException) for
string-only args to avoid fabricated stack traces.
- Add server/logger.ts: dev passes through; prod silences log/info but
keeps warn/error on stderr (Sentry not initialized in that process).
- Replace all console.* calls across 44 app files and 4 server files.
- Upgrade no-console from warn → error in oxlint; exempt logger files and
scripts/** via overrides.
- Add typescript/no-inferrable-types rule; fix violations in services and
simulators. Exempt test files (intentional string widening for switch/if
tests would break under literal type inference).
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Closes#115
- Add `NHLSimulator` using NHL's divisional bracket format (top 3 per
division + 2 wildcards per conference, best-of-7 series, parity
factor 800). Elo ratings and seeding probabilities sourced from
elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 as of March 18, 2026.
- Add `nhl_bracket` to `simulatorTypeEnum` with migration.
- Register `NHLSimulator` in the simulator registry.
- Fix simulator type dropdown in admin to auto-generate from the
registry instead of a hardcoded list, so new simulators appear
automatically without a separate UI change.
Code review fixes applied to the simulator:
- Narrow `weightedPick` key type to the five seeding probability fields
(was `keyof NhlTeamData`, allowing `"elo"` which would silently
corrupt results)
- Remove uniform-random fallback in `weightedPick` — zero-weight draws
now return `undefined` and are skipped, preventing eliminated teams
from becoming wildcards
- Exclude unrecognized participants entirely (with a console warning)
instead of silently routing them into the Eastern wildcard pool
- Replace the confusing for-of loop over both conferences (with unused
`champ` variable and `!`-suppressed unitialized vars) with two
explicit sequential East/West blocks
- Track `effectiveN` for skipped degenerate draws so probability
denominators stay accurate; throw if all iterations are skipped
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add nba_bracket SelectItem to simulator type dropdown in admin sport edit page
- Add 0046 to _journal.json (it was missing, causing Drizzle to never run the ALTER TYPE on prod)
- Add remediation migration 0047 with IF NOT EXISTS to safely add nba_bracket enum value on next deploy
- Improve error message in updateSport action to surface actual DB error instead of always blaming the slug
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the duplicated F1Simulator (which was copy-pasted for IndyCar) with a
single AutoRacingSimulator that accepts a race points table at construction time.
Registry entries for f1_standings and indycar_standings remain separate, each
wired to the correct scoring system (F1: top-10, IndyCar: top-26 positions).
Also imports SIMULATOR_TYPES from registry into the admin route to eliminate the
duplicate hardcoded array, and updates stale comments mentioning F1/IndyCar.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.
- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios
Fixes#113
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Every route now exports a meta function so the browser title bar reflects
the current page. Static pages use fixed titles; dynamic pages pull names
from loader data with a sensible fallback (e.g. league name, sport season
name, team name).
Titles follow the pattern "Page Name - Brackt" for user-facing routes and
"Page Name - Brackt Admin" for admin routes.
Fixes#74
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator
- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field
Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.
- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
`ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
