e507f82508
Championship futures odds rate mid-season drivers by likelihood to win the title, which understates a driver like Hamilton (2nd in standings) because the odds reflect the difficulty of closing a gap — not where he'll likely finish. The simulator was using those odds as-is for all remaining race win probabilities, making the current standings irrelevant to EV. Fix: blend each driver's odds-derived strength with their share of total current championship points, weighted by season progress (completedRaces / totalRaces). Pre-season remains pure futures-odds; mid-season is a 50/50 blend; late-season standings dominate. Additionally scale PARTICIPANT_VOLATILITY down by up to 70% as the season progresses to prevent unrealistic swings when few races remain. Applies equally to F1 and IndyCar via AutoRacingSimulator. https://claude.ai/code/session_01FyG28zxsjSrgr8aKYuy6xY |
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| .. | ||
| __tests__ | ||
| match-sync | ||
| simulations | ||
| standings-sync | ||
| bracket-simulator.ts | ||
| brackt.server.ts | ||
| discord.ts | ||
| draft-autostart.ts | ||
| draft-discord.server.ts | ||
| draft-email.server.ts | ||
| ev-calculator.ts | ||
| icm-calculator.ts | ||
| probability-engine.ts | ||
| probability-updater.ts | ||
| sync-tournament-results.ts | ||