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/ * *
* Simulator Registry
*
* Maps a sport ' s simulatorType to the appropriate Simulator implementation .
* Set simulatorType on the sport record in the admin UI .
* Add new simulators here as new sports are supported .
* /
import type { Simulator } from "./types" ;
import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator" ;
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import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator" ;
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import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator" ;
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import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator" ;
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator" ;
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator" ;
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import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator" ;
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import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator" ;
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import { AFLSimulator } from "./afl-simulator" ;
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import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator" ;
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator" ;
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
import { DartsSimulator } from "./darts-simulator" ;
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
import { CSMajorSimulator } from "./cs-major-simulator" ;
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator" ;
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import { NFLSimulator } from "./nfl-simulator" ;
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import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator" ;
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator" ;
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator" ;
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import { LLWSSimulator } from "./llws-simulator" ;
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2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
"f1_standings" ,
"indycar_standings" ,
"golf_qualifying_points" ,
"playoff_bracket" ,
"ucl_bracket" ,
"ncaam_bracket" ,
"ncaaw_bracket" ,
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"nba_bracket" ,
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00
"nhl_bracket" ,
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"nfl_bracket" ,
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"afl_bracket" ,
2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
"snooker_bracket" ,
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
"tennis_qualifying_points" ,
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
"mlb_bracket" ,
2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
"wnba_bracket" ,
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
"world_cup" ,
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
"darts_bracket" ,
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
"cs2_major_qualifying_points" ,
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
"ncaa_football_bracket" ,
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"llws_bracket" ,
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] as const ;
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES [ number ] ;
// ─── Race points tables ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/** F1 points: positions 1– 10. */
const F1_RACE_POINTS : Record < number , number > = {
1 : 25 , 2 : 18 , 3 : 15 , 4 : 12 , 5 : 10 , 6 : 8 , 7 : 6 , 8 : 4 , 9 : 2 , 10 : 1 ,
} ;
/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 1– 26. */
const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS : Record < number , number > = {
1 : 50 , 2 : 40 , 3 : 35 , 4 : 32 , 5 : 30 , 6 : 28 , 7 : 26 , 8 : 24 , 9 : 22 , 10 : 20 ,
11 : 19 , 12 : 18 , 13 : 17 , 14 : 16 , 15 : 15 , 16 : 14 , 17 : 13 , 18 : 12 , 19 : 11 , 20 : 10 ,
21 : 9 , 22 : 8 , 23 : 7 , 24 : 6 , 25 : 5 , 26 : 5 ,
} ;
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export interface SimulatorInfo {
name : string ;
description : string ;
}
const REGISTRY : Record < SimulatorType , { info : SimulatorInfo ; create : ( ) = > Simulator } > = {
f1_standings : {
info : { name : "F1 Standings Model" , description : "Simulates remaining races using current F1 standings and futures odds" } ,
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create : ( ) = > new AutoRacingSimulator ( F1_RACE_POINTS , "f1_standings_model" ) ,
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} ,
indycar_standings : {
info : { name : "IndyCar Standings Model" , description : "Simulates remaining races using current IndyCar standings and futures odds" } ,
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create : ( ) = > new AutoRacingSimulator ( INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS , "indycar_standings_model" ) ,
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} ,
golf_qualifying_points : {
Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223)
* Add golf QP simulator with Plackett-Luce model, fixes #120
- New `participant_golf_skills` table (migration 0061) for SG: Total and
per-major American odds per player/season
- New `app/models/golf-skills.ts` with getGolfSkillsMap, getGolfSkillsForSeason,
batchUpsertGolfSkills
- Full `GolfSimulator` implementation replacing the TODO stub: Plackett-Luce
ranking model (PL_BETA=1.5, FIELD_SIZE=156), 10k Monte Carlo iterations,
awards QP by finishing position, ranks by total QP across all 4 majors
- New admin route `sports-seasons/:id/golf-skills` with bulk CSV import,
fuzzy name matching, per-player SG + per-major odds inputs; saves skills
and auto-runs simulation on submit
- Simulator dropdown on sport admin sorted alphabetically; renamed to
"Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo"
- Golf Skills button shown on sports season admin when simulator type is
golf_qualifying_points
- Extract normalizeName/diceCoefficient to shared `app/lib/fuzzy-match.ts`,
removing duplication from surface-elo and golf-skills routes
- Parallelize 4 DB queries in GolfSimulator.simulate() with Promise.all
- O(1) field array removal via swap-to-end + pop (was O(N) splice)
- Fix source tag: performance_model (not elo_simulation) for SG-based model
- 23 unit tests covering americanToImplied, getMajorOddsKey, resolveSkill,
simulateMajor, and Monte Carlo calibration properties
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint errors: no-non-null-assertion and eqeqeq
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
info : { name : "Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates remaining majors using a Plackett-Luce model with SG: Total ratings. Awards QP by finishing position; ranks players by total QP across all 4 majors." } ,
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create : ( ) = > new GolfSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
playoff_bracket : {
info : { name : "Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates playoff bracket outcomes using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new BracketSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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ucl_bracket : {
info : { name : "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" } ,
create : ( ) = > new UCLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
ncaam_bracket : {
info : { name : "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using KenPom net ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NCAAMSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
ncaaw_bracket : {
info : { name : "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using Barttorvik Barthag ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NCAAWSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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nba_bracket : {
info : { name : "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NBASimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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nhl_bracket : {
info : { name : "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NHLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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nfl_bracket : {
info : {
name : "NFL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Projects NFL regular season standings (via nfelo Elo ratings) to determine the 14-team playoff field, then simulates the full bracket (Wild Card → Divisional → Conference Championship → Super Bowl). Elo ratings maintained via admin sourceElo field." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new NFLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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afl_bracket : {
info : { name : "AFL Season + Finals Monte Carlo" , description : "Projects AFL regular season standings via Elo, then simulates the 10-team finals series (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season." } ,
create : ( ) = > new AFLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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snooker_bracket : {
info : { name : "Snooker World Championship Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 32-player World Championship bracket using frame-by-frame Bernoulli win probability and direct Elo ratings. Pre-bracket path simulates qualifying (ranks 17-48) and randomly draws qualifiers vs top 16 seeds." } ,
create : ( ) = > new SnookerSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
tennis_qualifying_points : {
info : { name : "Tennis Grand Slam Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (128-player seeded bracket) using surface-specific Elo ratings. Accumulates qualifying points per round (tie-split applied) and ranks players by total QP across the season." } ,
create : ( ) = > new TennisSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
mlb_bracket : {
info : { name : "MLB Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates MLB division races + full playoff bracket (WC best-of-3, DS best-of-5, LCS/WS best-of-7) using Elo ratings calibrated from FanGraphs projected wins" } ,
create : ( ) = > new MLBSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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wnba_bracket : {
info : { name : "WNBA Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Projects WNBA regular season seedings and simulates full playoff bracket (R1 best-of-3, Semis best-of-5, Finals best-of-7) using SRS-derived Elo ratings. SRS values sourced from basketball-reference.com." } ,
create : ( ) = > new WNBASimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
world_cup : {
info : { name : "FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the full 48-team World Cup: round-robin group stage (12 groups), best-8 third-place selection, R32→R16→QF→SF→3rd place game→Final. Uses blended Elo + futures odds." } ,
create : ( ) = > new WorldCupSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
darts_bracket : {
info : { name : "PDC World Darts Championship Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 128-player World Darts Championship bracket using set-level Bernoulli win probability and Elo ratings. Top 32 seeds placed in fixed positions; remaining 96 players randomly drawn per simulation." } ,
create : ( ) = > new DartsSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
cs2_major_qualifying_points : {
info : { name : "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 9– 16) are sub-ranked by W-L record." } ,
create : ( ) = > new CSMajorSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
ncaa_football_bracket : {
info : { name : "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 1– 4 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." } ,
create : ( ) = > new NCAAFootballSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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llws_bracket : {
info : {
name : "LLWS Bracket Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: pool play round-robin (5 teams/pool, top 2 advance) → 4-team double-elimination bracket per side (US & International) → consolation game (3rd/4th) → World Series. Uses championship futures odds for all win probabilities. Set externalId to 'US'/'Intl' (randomized pools) or 'US:A'/'US:B'/'Intl:A'/'Intl:B' (fixed pools)." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new LLWSSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
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} ;
export function getSimulator ( simulatorType : SimulatorType ) : Simulator {
const entry = REGISTRY [ simulatorType ] ;
if ( ! entry ) {
throw new Error (
` No simulator registered for type: " ${ simulatorType } ". ` +
` Add a simulator to app/services/simulations/registry.ts. `
) ;
}
return entry . create ( ) ;
}
export function getSimulatorInfo ( simulatorType : SimulatorType ) : SimulatorInfo | null {
return REGISTRY [ simulatorType ] ? . info ? ? null ;
}