brackt/app/models/simulator.ts

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Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
import { and, eq, inArray, isNotNull, sql } from "drizzle-orm";
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
import { database } from "~/database/context";
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
import {
getManifestSimulatorProfile,
simulatorInputLabel,
type SimulatorInputKey,
type SimulatorManifestProfile,
} from "~/services/simulations/manifest";
import {
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
getSimulatorInputPolicy,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
ratingRequirementLabel,
resolveRatings,
resolveSourceElos,
sourceEloRequirementLabel,
} from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
import { SIMULATOR_TYPES, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
export interface SimulatorProfile extends SimulatorManifestProfile {
isActive: boolean;
}
export interface SportsSeasonSimulatorConfig {
sportsSeasonId: string;
simulatorType: SimulatorType;
config: Record<string, unknown>;
profile: SimulatorProfile;
}
export interface ParticipantSimulatorInput {
participantId: string;
sportsSeasonId: string;
sourceOdds: number | null;
sourceElo: number | null;
worldRanking: number | null;
rating: number | null;
projectedWins: number | null;
projectedTablePoints: number | null;
seed: number | null;
region: string | null;
metadata: Record<string, unknown> | null;
}
export interface UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput {
participantId: string;
sportsSeasonId: string;
sourceOdds?: number | null;
sourceElo?: number | null;
worldRanking?: number | null;
rating?: number | null;
projectedWins?: number | null;
projectedTablePoints?: number | null;
seed?: number | null;
region?: string | null;
metadata?: Record<string, unknown> | null;
}
export interface SimulatorReadiness {
status: "ready" | "not_ready";
canRun: boolean;
participantCount: number;
participantInputCount: number;
derivedInputCount: number;
fallbackInputCount: number;
missingInputs: string[];
warnings: string[];
}
export interface SportsSeasonSimulatorSummary {
sportsSeasonId: string;
seasonName: string;
year: number;
seasonStatus: string;
simulationStatus: string;
fantasySeasonId: string | null;
fantasySeasonName: string | null;
leagueName: string | null;
sportName: string;
sportSlug: string;
simulatorType: SimulatorType;
simulatorName: string;
participantCount: number;
participantInputCount: number;
lastSimulatedDate: string | null;
readiness: SimulatorReadiness;
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
/** Whether this simulator exposes a Futures Odds setup section. */
supportsFuturesOdds: boolean;
/** Number of participants that currently have stored futures odds. */
oddsParticipantCount: number;
Unify simulator strength on a single blended Elo Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability blend approach. Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts): - SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight (0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures override, between = weighted blend (method "blend"). - Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper. Simulators consume the single resolved Elo: - UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal, convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed. - UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly. - College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid double-counting; the simulator is unchanged. Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4, college hockey 0; global default 0.3). UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight" control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend ("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count. Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced. Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-26 01:39:12 +00:00
/** Weight (01) the season's policy gives futures odds when blending into Elo. */
oddsWeight: number;
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
}
function parseDecimal(value: string | null | undefined): number | null {
if (value === null || value === undefined) return null;
const parsed = Number(value);
return Number.isFinite(parsed) ? parsed : null;
}
function isSimulatorType(value: string | null | undefined): value is SimulatorType {
return typeof value === "string" && (SIMULATOR_TYPES as readonly string[]).includes(value);
}
function mergeProfile(
simulatorType: SimulatorType,
dbProfile?: typeof schema.simulatorProfiles.$inferSelect | null
): SimulatorProfile {
const manifest = getManifestSimulatorProfile(simulatorType);
if (!dbProfile) return { ...manifest, isActive: true };
return {
...manifest,
displayName: dbProfile.displayName,
description: dbProfile.description ?? manifest.description,
defaultConfig: {
...manifest.defaultConfig,
...dbProfile.defaultConfig,
},
isActive: dbProfile.isActive,
};
}
function hasInputValue(input: ParticipantSimulatorInput, key: SimulatorInputKey): boolean {
const value = input[key];
if (value === null || value === undefined) return false;
if (typeof value === "string") return value.trim().length > 0;
if (typeof value === "object") return Object.keys(value).length > 0;
return true;
}
function isFallbackMethod(method: string): boolean {
return method === "fallbackElo" || method === "fallbackRating" || method === "averageKnown" || method === "worstKnownMinus";
}
Unify simulator strength on a single blended Elo Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability blend approach. Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts): - SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight (0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures override, between = weighted blend (method "blend"). - Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper. Simulators consume the single resolved Elo: - UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal, convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed. - UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly. - College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid double-counting; the simulator is unchanged. Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4, college hockey 0; global default 0.3). UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight" control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend ("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count. Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced. Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-26 01:39:12 +00:00
const GENERATED_RATING_METHODS = ["sourceOdds", "blend", "fallbackRating", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
const GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS = ["projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds", "blend", "fallbackElo", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
function isGeneratedRatingMethod(method: unknown): boolean {
return typeof method === "string" && GENERATED_RATING_METHODS.includes(method as (typeof GENERATED_RATING_METHODS)[number]);
}
2026-05-13 15:02:23 -07:00
function isGeneratedSourceEloMethod(method: unknown): boolean {
return typeof method === "string" && GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS.includes(method as (typeof GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS)[number]);
}
function isGeneratedRatingInput(input: typeof schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.$inferSelect | undefined): boolean {
return isGeneratedRatingMethod(input?.metadata?.ratingMethod);
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
}
2026-05-13 15:02:23 -07:00
function isGeneratedSourceEloInput(input: typeof schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.$inferSelect | undefined): boolean {
return isGeneratedSourceEloMethod(input?.metadata?.sourceEloMethod);
}
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
function inputRequirementLabel(
key: SimulatorInputKey,
profile: SimulatorManifestProfile
): string {
if (key === "sourceElo" && profile.derivableInputs?.sourceElo?.length) {
return sourceEloRequirementLabel(profile);
}
if (key === "rating" && profile.derivableInputs?.rating?.length) {
return ratingRequirementLabel(profile);
}
return simulatorInputLabel(key);
}
export async function getSimulatorProfile(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Promise<SimulatorProfile> {
const db = database();
const dbProfile = await db.query.simulatorProfiles.findFirst({
where: eq(schema.simulatorProfiles.simulatorType, simulatorType),
});
return mergeProfile(simulatorType, dbProfile);
}
export async function upsertSimulatorProfile(
profile: Pick<SimulatorProfile, "simulatorType" | "displayName" | "description" | "defaultConfig"> & {
inputSchema?: Record<string, unknown>;
isActive?: boolean;
}
): Promise<void> {
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
await db
.insert(schema.simulatorProfiles)
.values({
simulatorType: profile.simulatorType,
displayName: profile.displayName,
description: profile.description,
defaultConfig: profile.defaultConfig,
inputSchema: profile.inputSchema ?? {},
isActive: profile.isActive ?? true,
createdAt: now,
updatedAt: now,
})
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: schema.simulatorProfiles.simulatorType,
set: {
displayName: sql`excluded.display_name`,
description: sql`excluded.description`,
defaultConfig: sql`excluded.default_config`,
inputSchema: sql`excluded.input_schema`,
isActive: sql`excluded.is_active`,
updatedAt: now,
},
});
}
export async function getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(
sportsSeasonId: string
): Promise<SportsSeasonSimulatorConfig | null> {
const db = database();
const season = await db.query.sportsSeasons.findFirst({
where: eq(schema.sportsSeasons.id, sportsSeasonId),
with: {
sport: true,
simulatorConfig: true,
},
});
const simulatorType = season?.simulatorConfig?.simulatorType ?? season?.sport?.simulatorType;
if (!season || !isSimulatorType(simulatorType)) return null;
const profile = await getSimulatorProfile(simulatorType);
const config = {
...profile.defaultConfig,
...season.simulatorConfig?.config,
};
return {
sportsSeasonId,
simulatorType,
config,
profile,
};
}
export async function upsertSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(input: {
sportsSeasonId: string;
simulatorType: SimulatorType;
config?: Record<string, unknown>;
}): Promise<void> {
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
await db
.insert(schema.sportsSeasonSimulatorConfigs)
.values({
sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
simulatorType: input.simulatorType,
config: input.config ?? {},
createdAt: now,
updatedAt: now,
})
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: schema.sportsSeasonSimulatorConfigs.sportsSeasonId,
set: {
simulatorType: sql`excluded.simulator_type`,
config: sql`excluded.config`,
updatedAt: now,
},
});
}
export async function getParticipantSimulatorInputs(
sportsSeasonId: string
): Promise<ParticipantSimulatorInput[]> {
const db = database();
const [seasonParticipants, simulatorInputs, legacyEvs] = await Promise.all([
db.query.seasonParticipants.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
columns: { id: true },
}),
db.query.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
}),
db.query.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
columns: {
participantId: true,
sourceOdds: true,
sourceElo: true,
worldRanking: true,
},
}),
]);
const simulatorByParticipant = new Map(simulatorInputs.map((row) => [row.participantId, row]));
const legacyByParticipant = new Map(legacyEvs.map((row) => [row.participantId, row]));
return seasonParticipants.map((participant) => {
const input = simulatorByParticipant.get(participant.id);
const legacy = legacyByParticipant.get(participant.id);
return {
participantId: participant.id,
sportsSeasonId,
sourceOdds: input?.sourceOdds ?? legacy?.sourceOdds ?? null,
2026-05-13 15:02:23 -07:00
sourceElo: input
? isGeneratedSourceEloInput(input) ? null : input.sourceElo
: legacy?.sourceElo ?? null,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
worldRanking: input?.worldRanking ?? legacy?.worldRanking ?? null,
rating: isGeneratedRatingInput(input) ? null : parseDecimal(input?.rating),
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
projectedWins: parseDecimal(input?.projectedWins),
projectedTablePoints: parseDecimal(input?.projectedTablePoints),
seed: input?.seed ?? null,
region: input?.region ?? null,
metadata: input?.metadata ?? null,
};
});
}
function generatedRatingMethodSql() {
return sql`${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}->>'ratingMethod' in ('sourceOdds', 'fallbackRating', 'averageKnown', 'worstKnownMinus')`;
}
export async function batchSaveParticipantSimulatorSourceOdds(
inputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceOdds: number }>
): Promise<void> {
if (inputs.length === 0) return;
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
const seasonIds = [...new Set(inputs.map((input) => input.sportsSeasonId))];
await db.transaction(async (tx) => {
await tx
.update(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
.set({
rating: null,
metadata: sql`coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod'`,
updatedAt: now,
})
.where(
and(
inArray(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId, seasonIds),
generatedRatingMethodSql()
)
);
await tx
.insert(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
.values(
inputs.map((input) => ({
participantId: input.participantId,
sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
sourceOdds: input.sourceOdds,
createdAt: now,
updatedAt: now,
}))
)
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: [
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.participantId,
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId,
],
set: {
sourceOdds: sql`excluded.source_odds`,
rating: sql`case when ${generatedRatingMethodSql()} then null else ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.rating} end`,
metadata: sql`case when ${generatedRatingMethodSql()} then coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod' else ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata} end`,
updatedAt: now,
},
});
});
}
Fix NCAAW futures odds simulation and admin import UX (#420) - Revert ncaaw-simulator to Barthag win probability formula; set realistic rating bounds (ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97) so derived ratings stay in the range where the formula behaves well - Add batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator which clears all ratings (manual and generated) before upserting sourceOdds, so futures odds always drive the simulation rather than being silently overridden by existing Barthag ratings from Simulator Setup - Add clearSourceOddsForParticipants to zero out both tables for participants excluded from a bulk import - Add "Clear existing odds" checkbox to the bulk import card; applies client-side on match and server-side on submit - Fix missing sportsSeasonId filter in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator pre-clear UPDATE (could have wiped ratings across other seasons) - Fix race condition: run batchSaveSourceOdds then batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator sequentially so the simulator inputs table always ends in the correct cleared state - Fix Math.round in convertFuturesToElo collapsing Barthag-scale ratings to 0 or 1; Elo callers already round after clamping - Handle all-identical-odds edge case in convertFuturesToElo (assign midpoint instead of throwing) - Add missingRatingStrategy: worstKnownMinus to ncaaw_bracket manifest so fallbackRatingDelta is live config, not dead - Log warning in resolveRatings when only 1 participant has odds - Reset clearExisting checkbox after applyMatches Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 01:06:16 -07:00
export async function batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator(
inputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceOdds: number }>
): Promise<void> {
if (inputs.length === 0) return;
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
// Persist the odds non-destructively. Whether these odds override a stored
// Elo/rating is now governed by the season's configurable source priority
// (see resolveSourceElos / SimulatorInputPolicy.sourceEloPriority), so we no
// longer null out manually entered Elo here — that policy decides at run time.
await db
.insert(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
.values(
inputs.map((input) => ({
participantId: input.participantId,
sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
sourceOdds: input.sourceOdds,
createdAt: now,
Fix NCAAW futures odds simulation and admin import UX (#420) - Revert ncaaw-simulator to Barthag win probability formula; set realistic rating bounds (ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97) so derived ratings stay in the range where the formula behaves well - Add batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator which clears all ratings (manual and generated) before upserting sourceOdds, so futures odds always drive the simulation rather than being silently overridden by existing Barthag ratings from Simulator Setup - Add clearSourceOddsForParticipants to zero out both tables for participants excluded from a bulk import - Add "Clear existing odds" checkbox to the bulk import card; applies client-side on match and server-side on submit - Fix missing sportsSeasonId filter in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator pre-clear UPDATE (could have wiped ratings across other seasons) - Fix race condition: run batchSaveSourceOdds then batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator sequentially so the simulator inputs table always ends in the correct cleared state - Fix Math.round in convertFuturesToElo collapsing Barthag-scale ratings to 0 or 1; Elo callers already round after clamping - Handle all-identical-odds edge case in convertFuturesToElo (assign midpoint instead of throwing) - Add missingRatingStrategy: worstKnownMinus to ncaaw_bracket manifest so fallbackRatingDelta is live config, not dead - Log warning in resolveRatings when only 1 participant has odds - Reset clearExisting checkbox after applyMatches Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 01:06:16 -07:00
updatedAt: now,
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
}))
)
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: [
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.participantId,
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId,
],
set: {
sourceOdds: sql`excluded.source_odds`,
updatedAt: now,
},
});
Fix NCAAW futures odds simulation and admin import UX (#420) - Revert ncaaw-simulator to Barthag win probability formula; set realistic rating bounds (ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97) so derived ratings stay in the range where the formula behaves well - Add batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator which clears all ratings (manual and generated) before upserting sourceOdds, so futures odds always drive the simulation rather than being silently overridden by existing Barthag ratings from Simulator Setup - Add clearSourceOddsForParticipants to zero out both tables for participants excluded from a bulk import - Add "Clear existing odds" checkbox to the bulk import card; applies client-side on match and server-side on submit - Fix missing sportsSeasonId filter in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator pre-clear UPDATE (could have wiped ratings across other seasons) - Fix race condition: run batchSaveSourceOdds then batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator sequentially so the simulator inputs table always ends in the correct cleared state - Fix Math.round in convertFuturesToElo collapsing Barthag-scale ratings to 0 or 1; Elo callers already round after clamping - Handle all-identical-odds edge case in convertFuturesToElo (assign midpoint instead of throwing) - Add missingRatingStrategy: worstKnownMinus to ncaaw_bracket manifest so fallbackRatingDelta is live config, not dead - Log warning in resolveRatings when only 1 participant has odds - Reset clearExisting checkbox after applyMatches Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 01:06:16 -07:00
}
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
export async function batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs(
inputs: UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput[]
): Promise<void> {
if (inputs.length === 0) return;
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
await db.transaction(async (tx) => {
await tx
.insert(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
.values(
inputs.map((input) => ({
participantId: input.participantId,
sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
sourceOdds: input.sourceOdds ?? null,
sourceElo: input.sourceElo ?? null,
worldRanking: input.worldRanking ?? null,
rating: input.rating?.toString() ?? null,
projectedWins: input.projectedWins?.toString() ?? null,
projectedTablePoints: input.projectedTablePoints?.toString() ?? null,
seed: input.seed ?? null,
region: input.region ?? null,
metadata: input.metadata ?? null,
createdAt: now,
updatedAt: now,
}))
)
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: [
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.participantId,
schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId,
],
set: {
sourceOdds: sql`excluded.source_odds`,
sourceElo: sql`excluded.source_elo`,
worldRanking: sql`excluded.world_ranking`,
rating: sql`excluded.rating`,
projectedWins: sql`excluded.projected_wins`,
projectedTablePoints: sql`excluded.projected_table_points`,
seed: sql`excluded.seed`,
region: sql`excluded.region`,
metadata: sql`excluded.metadata`,
updatedAt: sql`excluded.updated_at`,
},
});
// Compatibility bridge: keep legacy simulator metadata columns populated until
// every simulator has been migrated to season_participant_simulator_inputs.
await tx
.insert(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
.values(
inputs.map((input) => ({
participantId: input.participantId,
sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
probFirst: "0",
probSecond: "0",
probThird: "0",
probFourth: "0",
probFifth: "0",
probSixth: "0",
probSeventh: "0",
probEighth: "0",
expectedValue: "0",
source: input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined ? "futures_odds" as const : "elo_simulation" as const,
sourceOdds: input.sourceOdds ?? null,
sourceElo: input.sourceElo ?? null,
worldRanking: input.worldRanking ?? null,
calculatedAt: now,
updatedAt: now,
}))
)
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: [
schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId,
],
set: {
sourceOdds: sql`COALESCE(excluded.source_odds, ${schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds})`,
sourceElo: sql`COALESCE(excluded.source_elo, ${schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo})`,
worldRanking: sql`COALESCE(excluded.world_ranking, ${schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.worldRanking})`,
updatedAt: now,
},
});
});
}
export async function validateSimulatorReadiness(
sportsSeasonId: string
): Promise<SimulatorReadiness> {
const config = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
const inputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs(sportsSeasonId);
const missingInputs: string[] = [];
const warnings: string[] = [];
let derivedInputCount = 0;
let fallbackInputCount = 0;
if (!config) {
return {
status: "not_ready",
canRun: false,
participantCount: inputs.length,
participantInputCount: 0,
derivedInputCount,
fallbackInputCount,
missingInputs: ["simulator type"],
warnings,
};
}
const participantCount = inputs.length;
if (participantCount === 0) {
missingInputs.push("participants");
}
const requiredInputs = config.profile.requiredInputs;
const resolvedSourceElos = requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo")
? resolveSourceElos(inputs, config.profile, config.config)
: new Map();
const resolvedRatings = requiredInputs.includes("rating")
? resolveRatings(inputs, config.profile, config.config)
: new Map();
derivedInputCount =
[...resolvedSourceElos.values()].filter((input) => input.method !== "direct").length +
[...resolvedRatings.values()].filter((input) => input.method !== "direct").length;
fallbackInputCount =
[...resolvedSourceElos.values()].filter((input) => isFallbackMethod(input.method)).length +
[...resolvedRatings.values()].filter((input) => isFallbackMethod(input.method)).length;
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
function hasRequiredInput(input: ParticipantSimulatorInput, key: SimulatorInputKey): boolean {
if (hasInputValue(input, key)) return true;
if (key === "sourceElo") return resolvedSourceElos.has(input.participantId);
if (key === "rating") return resolvedRatings.has(input.participantId);
return false;
}
const participantInputCount = requiredInputs.length === 0
? participantCount
: inputs.filter((input) => requiredInputs.every((key) => hasRequiredInput(input, key))).length;
if (requiredInputs.length > 0 && participantInputCount < participantCount) {
for (const key of requiredInputs) {
const missingCount = inputs.filter((input) => !hasRequiredInput(input, key)).length;
if (missingCount > 0) {
missingInputs.push(`${inputRequirementLabel(key, config.profile)} for ${missingCount} participant(s)`);
}
}
}
if (derivedInputCount > 0) {
warnings.push(`Derived simulator inputs will be used for ${derivedInputCount} participant(s).`);
}
if (fallbackInputCount > 0) {
warnings.push(`Configured fallback simulator inputs will be used for ${fallbackInputCount} participant(s).`);
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
}
if (config.simulatorType === "cs2_major_qualifying_points") {
const missingRankCount = inputs.filter((input) => !hasInputValue(input, "worldRanking")).length;
if (missingRankCount > 0) {
warnings.push(
`CS2 will use rank 9999 for ${missingRankCount} participant(s) without world ranking; this is acceptable for deep-tail teams but less precise.`
);
}
}
if (config.profile.setupSections.includes("regularStandings")) {
warnings.push("Regular-season standings may be needed for in-season accuracy.");
}
if (config.profile.setupSections.includes("bracket")) {
warnings.push("Bracket-aware simulators use completed bracket results when available.");
}
const status = missingInputs.length === 0 ? "ready" : "not_ready";
return {
status,
canRun: status === "ready",
participantCount,
participantInputCount,
derivedInputCount,
fallbackInputCount,
missingInputs,
warnings,
};
}
export async function prepareSimulatorInputsForRun(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<void> {
const config = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
if (!config) return;
const inputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs(sportsSeasonId);
const resolvedSourceElos = config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo")
? resolveSourceElos(inputs, config.profile, config.config)
: new Map();
const resolvedRatings = config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("rating")
? resolveRatings(inputs, config.profile, config.config)
: new Map();
const rowsToUpsert: UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput[] = [];
for (const input of inputs) {
const resolvedElo = resolvedSourceElos.get(input.participantId);
const resolvedRating = resolvedRatings.get(input.participantId);
if (!resolvedElo && !resolvedRating) continue;
rowsToUpsert.push({
participantId: input.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
sourceOdds: input.sourceOdds,
sourceElo: resolvedElo?.sourceElo ?? input.sourceElo,
worldRanking: input.worldRanking,
rating: resolvedRating?.rating ?? input.rating,
projectedWins: input.projectedWins,
projectedTablePoints: input.projectedTablePoints,
seed: input.seed,
region: input.region,
metadata: {
...input.metadata,
...(resolvedElo ? { sourceEloMethod: resolvedElo.method } : {}),
...(resolvedRating ? { ratingMethod: resolvedRating.method } : {}),
},
});
}
await batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs(rowsToUpsert);
}
export async function listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries(): Promise<SportsSeasonSimulatorSummary[]> {
const db = database();
const seasons = await db.query.sportsSeasons.findMany({
with: {
sport: true,
fantasySeason: { with: { league: true } },
participants: { columns: { id: true } },
simulatorConfig: true,
},
});
const simulatorSeasons = seasons.filter((season) => {
const simulatorType = season.simulatorConfig?.simulatorType ?? season.sport.simulatorType;
if (!isSimulatorType(simulatorType)) return false;
// Brackt's public sports season is a draftable template. The runnable
// simulations are the per-league private Brackt seasons.
if (season.sport.slug === "brackt") return season.fantasySeasonId !== null;
return season.fantasySeasonId === null;
});
const seasonIds = simulatorSeasons.map((season) => season.id);
const snapshotRows = seasonIds.length > 0
? await db
.select({
sportsSeasonId: schema.participantEvSnapshots.sportsSeasonId,
lastSimulatedDate: sql<string>`max(${schema.participantEvSnapshots.snapshotDate})`,
})
.from(schema.participantEvSnapshots)
.where(inArray(schema.participantEvSnapshots.sportsSeasonId, seasonIds))
.groupBy(schema.participantEvSnapshots.sportsSeasonId)
: [];
const lastSnapshotBySeason = new Map(snapshotRows.map((row) => [row.sportsSeasonId, row.lastSimulatedDate]));
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
const oddsCountRows = seasonIds.length > 0
? await db
.select({
sportsSeasonId: schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId,
oddsCount: sql<number>`count(*)::int`,
})
.from(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
.where(
and(
inArray(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId, seasonIds),
isNotNull(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sourceOdds)
)
)
.groupBy(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.sportsSeasonId)
: [];
const oddsCountBySeason = new Map(oddsCountRows.map((row) => [row.sportsSeasonId, Number(row.oddsCount)]));
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
// Each season calls getSimulatorProfile + validateSimulatorReadiness (~4 queries each).
// Acceptable for an admin-only page; revisit if season counts grow past ~50.
const summaries = await Promise.all(
simulatorSeasons.map(async (season) => {
const simulatorType = (season.simulatorConfig?.simulatorType ?? season.sport.simulatorType) as SimulatorType;
const profile = await getSimulatorProfile(simulatorType);
const readiness = await validateSimulatorReadiness(season.id);
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
const mergedConfig = { ...profile.defaultConfig, ...(season.simulatorConfig?.config ?? {}) };
const policy = getSimulatorInputPolicy(mergedConfig);
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
return {
sportsSeasonId: season.id,
seasonName: season.name,
year: season.year,
seasonStatus: season.status,
simulationStatus: season.simulationStatus,
fantasySeasonId: season.fantasySeasonId,
fantasySeasonName: season.fantasySeason ? `${season.fantasySeason.year} Season` : null,
leagueName: season.fantasySeason?.league?.name ?? null,
sportName: season.sport.name,
sportSlug: season.sport.slug,
simulatorType,
simulatorName: profile.displayName,
participantCount: season.participants.length,
participantInputCount: readiness.participantInputCount,
lastSimulatedDate: lastSnapshotBySeason.get(season.id) ?? null,
readiness,
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
supportsFuturesOdds: profile.setupSections.includes("futuresOdds"),
oddsParticipantCount: oddsCountBySeason.get(season.id) ?? 0,
Unify simulator strength on a single blended Elo Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability blend approach. Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts): - SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight (0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures override, between = weighted blend (method "blend"). - Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper. Simulators consume the single resolved Elo: - UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal, convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed. - UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly. - College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid double-counting; the simulator is unchanged. Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4, college hockey 0; global default 0.3). UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight" control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend ("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count. Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced. Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-26 01:39:12 +00:00
oddsWeight: policy.oddsWeight,
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409) Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles, sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs), a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate → persist → snapshot → recalculate flow. Key additions: - manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/ optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections - input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds; supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies - runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants, snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings - /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run - /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input - NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs, falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated - Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo) only copied when explicitly requested Code-review fixes included in this commit: - source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined - sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the participant is already excluded from all resolved sources - Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel - save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it - Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N) - CSV description notes values must not contain commas - N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries - assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests - Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard, readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00
};
})
);
return summaries.toSorted((a, b) =>
a.sportName.localeCompare(b.sportName) ||
(a.leagueName ?? "").localeCompare(b.leagueName ?? "") ||
b.year - a.year ||
a.seasonName.localeCompare(b.seasonName)
);
}
export async function assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree(): Promise<void> {
const schemaValues = schema.simulatorTypeEnum.enumValues;
const missingFromSchema = SIMULATOR_TYPES.filter((type) => !schemaValues.includes(type));
const missingFromRegistry = schemaValues.filter((type) => !(SIMULATOR_TYPES as readonly string[]).includes(type));
if (missingFromSchema.length > 0 || missingFromRegistry.length > 0) {
throw new Error(
`Simulator registry/schema drift detected. ` +
`Missing from schema: ${missingFromSchema.join(", ") || "none"}. ` +
`Missing from registry: ${missingFromRegistry.join(", ") || "none"}.`
);
}
}