2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
/ * *
* Simulator Registry
*
* Maps a sport ' s simulatorType to the appropriate Simulator implementation .
* Set simulatorType on the sport record in the admin UI .
* Add new simulators here as new sports are supported .
* /
import type { Simulator } from "./types" ;
import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator" ;
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator" ;
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator" ;
2026-03-10 23:04:51 -07:00
import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator" ;
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator" ;
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator" ;
2026-03-16 21:43:39 -07:00
import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator" ;
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00
import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator" ;
2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
import { AFLSimulator } from "./afl-simulator" ;
2026-05-07 11:48:57 -07:00
import { EPLSimulator } from "./epl-simulator" ;
2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator" ;
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator" ;
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
import { DartsSimulator } from "./darts-simulator" ;
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
import { CSMajorSimulator } from "./cs-major-simulator" ;
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator" ;
2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
import { NFLSimulator } from "./nfl-simulator" ;
2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator" ;
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator" ;
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator" ;
2026-04-08 16:52:10 -04:00
import { LLWSSimulator } from "./llws-simulator" ;
2026-05-08 12:29:39 -07:00
import { CollegeHockeySimulator } from "./college-hockey-simulator" ;
2026-05-04 20:31:44 -07:00
import { BracktSimulator } from "./brackt-simulator" ;
2026-05-12 14:22:34 -07:00
import { NLLSimulator } from "./nll-simulator" ;
Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket) (#422)
* Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket)
Adds Major League Soccer as a draftable sport with a full-season Monte Carlo
simulator. Models both preseason regular-season projection (34 games across
Eastern and Western conferences) and the MLS Cup Playoffs bracket, including
the Wild Card (single game + PKs), Round 1 best-of-3 series, Conference
Semis/Finals (single game), and MLS Cup.
P1–P8 mapping: MLS Cup winner, finalist, Conference Finals losers, Conference
Semifinals losers. Conference assignment reads from regularSeasonStandings.conference
or falls back to the region simulator input ("Eastern"/"Western").
Admin inputs: projectedTablePoints (primary, max 102 for 34×3), with derivation
chain to sourceElo via existing input-policy; sourceOdds as alternative.
No hardcoded team data — all inputs are admin-managed per season.
- database/schema.ts: add mls_bracket to simulatorTypeEnum
- drizzle/0104_chief_boom_boom.sql: migration for the new enum value
- mls-simulator.ts: MLSSimulator + exported pure helpers for testability
- registry.ts / manifest.ts / simulator-config.ts: register mls_bracket
- mls-simulator.test.ts: 38 unit tests covering all helpers and sync checks
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Fix MLS simulator: config loading, sourceOdds fallback, normalization
Three issues found in code review comparing against EPL and NFL simulators:
1. Load simulator config from DB via getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig so
admins can override iterations, seasonGames, parityFactor, drawRates
per season without code changes. Previously all constants were hardcoded.
2. Add sourceOdds → convertFuturesToElo fallback when no sourceElo is
present. EPL and NFL both do this; MLS was throwing immediately instead
of attempting the odds conversion that the manifest declares as optional.
3. Call normalizeSimulationResultColumns before returning results, matching
EPL's local normalization pattern for consistency (runner also normalizes
globally, but EPL calls it locally too).
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Polish MLS simulator: configNumber zero, logger warning, Map lookup
Three small fixes from secondary code review:
1. configNumber: allow value >= 0 (not just > 0) so admins can
legitimately set baseDrawRate or drawDecay to 0 without the value
being silently discarded and replaced with the default.
2. Add logger.warn when a participant is excluded from simulation due
to a missing Elo rating, matching the NLL bracket-aware pattern.
Gives admins a visible signal instead of a silent exclusion.
3. getBySeeds: build a Map once instead of calling Array.find() per
seed. Eliminates 4M linear scans across 50k iterations for a 9-
element array — trivially fast either way, but Map is the right tool.
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 12:45:53 -07:00
import { MLSSimulator } from "./mls-simulator" ;
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
"f1_standings" ,
"indycar_standings" ,
"golf_qualifying_points" ,
"playoff_bracket" ,
"ucl_bracket" ,
"ncaam_bracket" ,
"ncaaw_bracket" ,
2026-03-16 21:43:39 -07:00
"nba_bracket" ,
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00
"nhl_bracket" ,
2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
"nfl_bracket" ,
2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
"afl_bracket" ,
2026-05-07 11:48:57 -07:00
"epl_standings" ,
2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
"snooker_bracket" ,
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
"tennis_qualifying_points" ,
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
"mlb_bracket" ,
2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
"wnba_bracket" ,
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
"world_cup" ,
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
"darts_bracket" ,
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
"cs2_major_qualifying_points" ,
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
"ncaa_football_bracket" ,
2026-04-08 16:52:10 -04:00
"llws_bracket" ,
2026-05-08 12:29:39 -07:00
"college_hockey_bracket" ,
2026-05-04 20:31:44 -07:00
"brackt" ,
2026-05-12 14:22:34 -07:00
"nll_bracket" ,
Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket) (#422)
* Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket)
Adds Major League Soccer as a draftable sport with a full-season Monte Carlo
simulator. Models both preseason regular-season projection (34 games across
Eastern and Western conferences) and the MLS Cup Playoffs bracket, including
the Wild Card (single game + PKs), Round 1 best-of-3 series, Conference
Semis/Finals (single game), and MLS Cup.
P1–P8 mapping: MLS Cup winner, finalist, Conference Finals losers, Conference
Semifinals losers. Conference assignment reads from regularSeasonStandings.conference
or falls back to the region simulator input ("Eastern"/"Western").
Admin inputs: projectedTablePoints (primary, max 102 for 34×3), with derivation
chain to sourceElo via existing input-policy; sourceOdds as alternative.
No hardcoded team data — all inputs are admin-managed per season.
- database/schema.ts: add mls_bracket to simulatorTypeEnum
- drizzle/0104_chief_boom_boom.sql: migration for the new enum value
- mls-simulator.ts: MLSSimulator + exported pure helpers for testability
- registry.ts / manifest.ts / simulator-config.ts: register mls_bracket
- mls-simulator.test.ts: 38 unit tests covering all helpers and sync checks
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Fix MLS simulator: config loading, sourceOdds fallback, normalization
Three issues found in code review comparing against EPL and NFL simulators:
1. Load simulator config from DB via getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig so
admins can override iterations, seasonGames, parityFactor, drawRates
per season without code changes. Previously all constants were hardcoded.
2. Add sourceOdds → convertFuturesToElo fallback when no sourceElo is
present. EPL and NFL both do this; MLS was throwing immediately instead
of attempting the odds conversion that the manifest declares as optional.
3. Call normalizeSimulationResultColumns before returning results, matching
EPL's local normalization pattern for consistency (runner also normalizes
globally, but EPL calls it locally too).
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Polish MLS simulator: configNumber zero, logger warning, Map lookup
Three small fixes from secondary code review:
1. configNumber: allow value >= 0 (not just > 0) so admins can
legitimately set baseDrawRate or drawDecay to 0 without the value
being silently discarded and replaced with the default.
2. Add logger.warn when a participant is excluded from simulation due
to a missing Elo rating, matching the NLL bracket-aware pattern.
Gives admins a visible signal instead of a silent exclusion.
3. getBySeeds: build a Map once instead of calling Array.find() per
seed. Eliminates 4M linear scans across 50k iterations for a 9-
element array — trivially fast either way, but Map is the right tool.
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 12:45:53 -07:00
"mls_bracket" ,
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
] as const ;
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES [ number ] ;
// ─── Race points tables ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
/** F1 points: positions 1– 10. */
const F1_RACE_POINTS : Record < number , number > = {
1 : 25 , 2 : 18 , 3 : 15 , 4 : 12 , 5 : 10 , 6 : 8 , 7 : 6 , 8 : 4 , 9 : 2 , 10 : 1 ,
} ;
/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 1– 26. */
const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS : Record < number , number > = {
1 : 50 , 2 : 40 , 3 : 35 , 4 : 32 , 5 : 30 , 6 : 28 , 7 : 26 , 8 : 24 , 9 : 22 , 10 : 20 ,
11 : 19 , 12 : 18 , 13 : 17 , 14 : 16 , 15 : 15 , 16 : 14 , 17 : 13 , 18 : 12 , 19 : 11 , 20 : 10 ,
21 : 9 , 22 : 8 , 23 : 7 , 24 : 6 , 25 : 5 , 26 : 5 ,
} ;
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
export interface SimulatorInfo {
name : string ;
description : string ;
}
const REGISTRY : Record < SimulatorType , { info : SimulatorInfo ; create : ( ) = > Simulator } > = {
f1_standings : {
info : { name : "F1 Standings Model" , description : "Simulates remaining races using current F1 standings and futures odds" } ,
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
create : ( ) = > new AutoRacingSimulator ( F1_RACE_POINTS , "f1_standings_model" ) ,
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
} ,
indycar_standings : {
info : { name : "IndyCar Standings Model" , description : "Simulates remaining races using current IndyCar standings and futures odds" } ,
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
create : ( ) = > new AutoRacingSimulator ( INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS , "indycar_standings_model" ) ,
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
} ,
golf_qualifying_points : {
Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223)
* Add golf QP simulator with Plackett-Luce model, fixes #120
- New `participant_golf_skills` table (migration 0061) for SG: Total and
per-major American odds per player/season
- New `app/models/golf-skills.ts` with getGolfSkillsMap, getGolfSkillsForSeason,
batchUpsertGolfSkills
- Full `GolfSimulator` implementation replacing the TODO stub: Plackett-Luce
ranking model (PL_BETA=1.5, FIELD_SIZE=156), 10k Monte Carlo iterations,
awards QP by finishing position, ranks by total QP across all 4 majors
- New admin route `sports-seasons/:id/golf-skills` with bulk CSV import,
fuzzy name matching, per-player SG + per-major odds inputs; saves skills
and auto-runs simulation on submit
- Simulator dropdown on sport admin sorted alphabetically; renamed to
"Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo"
- Golf Skills button shown on sports season admin when simulator type is
golf_qualifying_points
- Extract normalizeName/diceCoefficient to shared `app/lib/fuzzy-match.ts`,
removing duplication from surface-elo and golf-skills routes
- Parallelize 4 DB queries in GolfSimulator.simulate() with Promise.all
- O(1) field array removal via swap-to-end + pop (was O(N) splice)
- Fix source tag: performance_model (not elo_simulation) for SG-based model
- 23 unit tests covering americanToImplied, getMajorOddsKey, resolveSkill,
simulateMajor, and Monte Carlo calibration properties
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint errors: no-non-null-assertion and eqeqeq
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
info : { name : "Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates remaining majors using a Plackett-Luce model with SG: Total ratings. Awards QP by finishing position; ranks players by total QP across all 4 majors." } ,
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
create : ( ) = > new GolfSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
playoff_bracket : {
info : { name : "Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates playoff bracket outcomes using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new BracketSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-10 23:04:51 -07:00
ucl_bracket : {
info : { name : "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" } ,
create : ( ) = > new UCLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
ncaam_bracket : {
2026-05-12 22:26:25 -07:00
info : { name : "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates preseason field selection or the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket using season-scoped KenPom-like ratings" } ,
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
create : ( ) = > new NCAAMSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
ncaaw_bracket : {
2026-05-12 22:26:25 -07:00
info : { name : "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates preseason field selection or the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament bracket using season-scoped Barthag-like ratings" } ,
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
create : ( ) = > new NCAAWSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-16 21:43:39 -07:00
nba_bracket : {
info : { name : "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NBASimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00
nhl_bracket : {
info : { name : "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" } ,
create : ( ) = > new NHLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
nfl_bracket : {
info : {
name : "NFL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Projects NFL regular season standings (via nfelo Elo ratings) to determine the 14-team playoff field, then simulates the full bracket (Wild Card → Divisional → Conference Championship → Super Bowl). Elo ratings maintained via admin sourceElo field." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new NFLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
afl_bracket : {
info : { name : "AFL Season + Finals Monte Carlo" , description : "Projects AFL regular season standings via Elo, then simulates the 10-team finals series (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season." } ,
create : ( ) = > new AFLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-05-07 11:48:57 -07:00
epl_standings : {
info : { name : "EPL Season Standings Monte Carlo" , description : "Projects the English Premier League table using current standings and Elo/projected-points inputs. Simulates draws correctly and returns top-eight placement probabilities." } ,
create : ( ) = > new EPLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
snooker_bracket : {
info : { name : "Snooker World Championship Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 32-player World Championship bracket using frame-by-frame Bernoulli win probability and direct Elo ratings. Pre-bracket path simulates qualifying (ranks 17-48) and randomly draws qualifiers vs top 16 seeds." } ,
create : ( ) = > new SnookerSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
tennis_qualifying_points : {
info : { name : "Tennis Grand Slam Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (128-player seeded bracket) using surface-specific Elo ratings. Accumulates qualifying points per round (tie-split applied) and ranks players by total QP across the season." } ,
create : ( ) = > new TennisSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
mlb_bracket : {
info : { name : "MLB Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates MLB division races + full playoff bracket (WC best-of-3, DS best-of-5, LCS/WS best-of-7) using Elo ratings calibrated from FanGraphs projected wins" } ,
create : ( ) = > new MLBSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
wnba_bracket : {
info : { name : "WNBA Playoff Monte Carlo" , description : "Projects WNBA regular season seedings and simulates full playoff bracket (R1 best-of-3, Semis best-of-5, Finals best-of-7) using SRS-derived Elo ratings. SRS values sourced from basketball-reference.com." } ,
create : ( ) = > new WNBASimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
world_cup : {
info : { name : "FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the full 48-team World Cup: round-robin group stage (12 groups), best-8 third-place selection, R32→R16→QF→SF→3rd place game→Final. Uses blended Elo + futures odds." } ,
create : ( ) = > new WorldCupSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
darts_bracket : {
info : { name : "PDC World Darts Championship Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 128-player World Darts Championship bracket using set-level Bernoulli win probability and Elo ratings. Top 32 seeds placed in fixed positions; remaining 96 players randomly drawn per simulation." } ,
create : ( ) = > new DartsSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260)
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-05 13:40:05 -07:00
cs2_major_qualifying_points : {
info : { name : "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 9– 16) are sub-ranked by W-L record." } ,
create : ( ) = > new CSMajorSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
ncaa_football_bracket : {
info : { name : "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo" , description : "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 1– 4 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." } ,
create : ( ) = > new NCAAFootballSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-04-08 16:52:10 -04:00
llws_bracket : {
info : {
name : "LLWS Bracket Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: pool play round-robin (5 teams/pool, top 2 advance) → 4-team double-elimination bracket per side (US & International) → consolation game (3rd/4th) → World Series. Uses championship futures odds for all win probabilities. Set externalId to 'US'/'Intl' (randomized pools) or 'US:A'/'US:B'/'Intl:A'/'Intl:B' (fixed pools)." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new LLWSSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-05-08 12:29:39 -07:00
college_hockey_bracket : {
info : {
name : "Men's College Hockey Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Simulates the 16-team NCAA men's hockey tournament. Pre-bracket mode samples the field using admin-entered futures odds, NPI rank, and/or Elo; bracket mode honors the existing Frozen Four bracket and completed results." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new CollegeHockeySimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-05-04 20:31:44 -07:00
brackt : {
info : {
name : "Brackt Harville Model" ,
description : "Projects league manager standings from drafted non-Brackt EVs and simulates final league placement probabilities." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new BracktSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-05-12 14:22:34 -07:00
nll_bracket : {
info : {
name : "NLL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Projects NLL regular season standings via Elo (14 teams, 18 games) to determine the top-8 playoff field, then simulates the bracket (QF single-game; SF and Finals best-of-3). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new NLLSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket) (#422)
* Add MLS sport simulator (mls_bracket)
Adds Major League Soccer as a draftable sport with a full-season Monte Carlo
simulator. Models both preseason regular-season projection (34 games across
Eastern and Western conferences) and the MLS Cup Playoffs bracket, including
the Wild Card (single game + PKs), Round 1 best-of-3 series, Conference
Semis/Finals (single game), and MLS Cup.
P1–P8 mapping: MLS Cup winner, finalist, Conference Finals losers, Conference
Semifinals losers. Conference assignment reads from regularSeasonStandings.conference
or falls back to the region simulator input ("Eastern"/"Western").
Admin inputs: projectedTablePoints (primary, max 102 for 34×3), with derivation
chain to sourceElo via existing input-policy; sourceOdds as alternative.
No hardcoded team data — all inputs are admin-managed per season.
- database/schema.ts: add mls_bracket to simulatorTypeEnum
- drizzle/0104_chief_boom_boom.sql: migration for the new enum value
- mls-simulator.ts: MLSSimulator + exported pure helpers for testability
- registry.ts / manifest.ts / simulator-config.ts: register mls_bracket
- mls-simulator.test.ts: 38 unit tests covering all helpers and sync checks
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Fix MLS simulator: config loading, sourceOdds fallback, normalization
Three issues found in code review comparing against EPL and NFL simulators:
1. Load simulator config from DB via getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig so
admins can override iterations, seasonGames, parityFactor, drawRates
per season without code changes. Previously all constants were hardcoded.
2. Add sourceOdds → convertFuturesToElo fallback when no sourceElo is
present. EPL and NFL both do this; MLS was throwing immediately instead
of attempting the odds conversion that the manifest declares as optional.
3. Call normalizeSimulationResultColumns before returning results, matching
EPL's local normalization pattern for consistency (runner also normalizes
globally, but EPL calls it locally too).
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
* Polish MLS simulator: configNumber zero, logger warning, Map lookup
Three small fixes from secondary code review:
1. configNumber: allow value >= 0 (not just > 0) so admins can
legitimately set baseDrawRate or drawDecay to 0 without the value
being silently discarded and replaced with the default.
2. Add logger.warn when a participant is excluded from simulation due
to a missing Elo rating, matching the NLL bracket-aware pattern.
Gives admins a visible signal instead of a silent exclusion.
3. getBySeeds: build a Map once instead of calling Array.find() per
seed. Eliminates 4M linear scans across 50k iterations for a 9-
element array — trivially fast either way, but Map is the right tool.
https://claude.ai/code/session_015wkBJ3SYGcMGjsddKKGkwa
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 12:45:53 -07:00
mls_bracket : {
info : {
name : "MLS Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo" ,
description : "Projects MLS regular season standings per conference via Elo (30 teams, 34 games) to determine the 18-team playoff field (top 9 per conference), then simulates the full bracket: Wild Card (single game + PKs) → Round 1 (best-of-3) → Conference Semis (single game) → Conference Finals (single game) → MLS Cup." ,
} ,
create : ( ) = > new MLSSimulator ( ) ,
} ,
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
} ;
export function getSimulator ( simulatorType : SimulatorType ) : Simulator {
const entry = REGISTRY [ simulatorType ] ;
if ( ! entry ) {
throw new Error (
` No simulator registered for type: " ${ simulatorType } ". ` +
` Add a simulator to app/services/simulations/registry.ts. `
) ;
}
return entry . create ( ) ;
}
export function getSimulatorInfo ( simulatorType : SimulatorType ) : SimulatorInfo | null {
return REGISTRY [ simulatorType ] ? . info ? ? null ;
}