Unify simulator strength on a single blended Elo

Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength
source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts
to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every
simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability
blend approach.

Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts):
- SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base
  sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight
  (0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an
  odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures
  override, between = weighted blend (method "blend").
- Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper.

Simulators consume the single resolved Elo:
- UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal,
  convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the
  resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The
  optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed.
- UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable
  from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly.
- College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the
  central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid
  double-counting; the simulator is unchanged.

Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4,
college hockey 0; global default 0.3).

UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight"
control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend
("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count.

Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority
and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete
source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced.

Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that
previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT

app/models/simulator.ts

@@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ import {
 } from "~/services/simulations/manifest";
 import {
   getSimulatorInputPolicy,
-  prefersFuturesOdds,
   ratingRequirementLabel,
   resolveRatings,
   resolveSourceElos,
@@ -88,8 +87,8 @@ export interface SportsSeasonSimulatorSummary {
   supportsFuturesOdds: boolean;
   /** Number of participants that currently have stored futures odds. */
   oddsParticipantCount: number;
-  /** Whether the season's input policy makes futures odds override Elo/projections. */
+  /** Weight (0–1) the season's policy gives futures odds when blending into Elo. */
-  prefersFuturesOdds: boolean;
+  oddsWeight: number;
 }
 
 function parseDecimal(value: string | null | undefined): number | null {
@@ -133,8 +132,8 @@ function isFallbackMethod(method: string): boolean {
   return method === "fallbackElo" || method === "fallbackRating" || method === "averageKnown" || method === "worstKnownMinus";
 }
 
-const GENERATED_RATING_METHODS = ["sourceOdds", "fallbackRating", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
+const GENERATED_RATING_METHODS = ["sourceOdds", "blend", "fallbackRating", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
-const GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS = ["projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds", "fallbackElo", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
+const GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS = ["projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds", "blend", "fallbackElo", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
 
 function isGeneratedRatingMethod(method: unknown): boolean {
   return typeof method === "string" && GENERATED_RATING_METHODS.includes(method as (typeof GENERATED_RATING_METHODS)[number]);
@@ -697,7 +696,7 @@ export async function listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries(): Promise<SportsSeason
         readiness,
         supportsFuturesOdds: profile.setupSections.includes("futuresOdds"),
         oddsParticipantCount: oddsCountBySeason.get(season.id) ?? 0,
-        prefersFuturesOdds: prefersFuturesOdds(policy.sourceEloPriority),
+        oddsWeight: policy.oddsWeight,
       };
     })
   );

app/routes/admin.simulators.tsx

@@ -77,6 +77,12 @@ export async function action({ request }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<ActionData>
   };
 }
 
+function futuresBlendLabel(oddsWeight: number): string {
+  if (oddsWeight >= 1) return "overrides Elo";
+  if (oddsWeight <= 0) return "Elo only";
+  return `${Math.round(oddsWeight * 100)}% blend`;
+}
+
 function statusBadge(status: string) {
   if (status === "ready") return <Badge className="gap-1"><CheckCircle2 className="h-3 w-3" /> Ready</Badge>;
   return <Badge variant="secondary" className="gap-1"><XCircle className="h-3 w-3" /> Needs setup</Badge>;
@@ -247,9 +253,9 @@ export default function AdminSimulators({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
                     <TableCell className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
                       <div>{sim.participantInputCount}/{sim.participantCount}</div>
                       {sim.supportsFuturesOdds && (
-                        <Badge variant={sim.prefersFuturesOdds ? "default" : "outline"} className="mt-1 text-xs font-normal">
+                        <Badge variant={sim.oddsWeight > 0 ? "default" : "outline"} className="mt-1 text-xs font-normal">
                           {sim.oddsParticipantCount > 0
-                            ? `Futures: ${sim.oddsParticipantCount}${sim.prefersFuturesOdds ? " (overrides Elo)" : " (fallback)"}`
+                            ? `Futures: ${sim.oddsParticipantCount} · ${futuresBlendLabel(sim.oddsWeight)}`
                             : "No futures odds"}
                         </Badge>
                       )}

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.tsx

@@ -27,9 +27,6 @@ import {
 import { normalizeName } from "~/lib/fuzzy-match";
 import {
   getSimulatorInputPolicy,
-  prefersFuturesOdds,
-  ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
-  FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
   type MissingEloStrategy,
   type MissingRatingStrategy,
 } from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
@@ -212,10 +209,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<Act
         inputPolicy: {
           missingEloStrategy: parseMissingEloStrategy(formData.get("missingEloStrategy")),
           missingRatingStrategy: parseMissingRatingStrategy(formData.get("missingRatingStrategy")),
-          sourceEloPriority:
+          // Stored as-is; getSimulatorInputPolicy clamps to [0,1] on read.
-            formData.get("sourceStrategy") === "futuresFirst"
-              ? FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY
-              : ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
           oddsWeight: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "oddsWeight", currentPolicy.oddsWeight),
           fallbackElo: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackElo", currentPolicy.fallbackElo),
           fallbackEloDelta: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackEloDelta", currentPolicy.fallbackEloDelta),
@@ -373,27 +367,14 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
           <CardContent>
             <Form method="post" className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-5">
               <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="save-input-policy" />
-              <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-3">
+              <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-5">
-                <Label htmlFor="sourceStrategy">Futures vs. Elo</Label>
+                <Label htmlFor="oddsWeight">Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight (0–1)</Label>
-                <select
-                  id="sourceStrategy"
-                  name="sourceStrategy"
-                  className="h-9 w-full rounded-md border bg-background px-3 text-sm"
-                  defaultValue={prefersFuturesOdds(inputPolicy.sourceEloPriority) ? "futuresFirst" : "eloFirst"}
-                >
-                  <option value="eloFirst">Elo / projections first (futures odds are fallback)</option>
-                  <option value="futuresFirst">Futures odds first (override stored Elo / projections)</option>
-                </select>
-                <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
-                  Controls which signal wins when a participant has both. Futures-first makes freshly
-                  entered odds drive the run without discarding stored Elo.
-                </p>
-              </div>
-              <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-2">
-                <Label htmlFor="oddsWeight">Odds Blend Weight (0–1)</Label>
                 <Input id="oddsWeight" name="oddsWeight" type="number" step="0.05" min="0" max="1" defaultValue={inputPolicy.oddsWeight} />
                 <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
-                  For simulators that blend Elo and odds per match. 1.0 = pure odds; 0 = pure Elo.
+                  Every source (raw Elo, projections, futures odds) becomes an Elo, then they blend into
+                  the single Elo that feeds the simulator. This is the weight given to futures odds:
+                  <strong> 0</strong> = Elo / projections only, <strong>1</strong> = futures fully override,
+                  in between = blend (e.g. 0.3 = 70% Elo / 30% futures).
                 </p>
               </div>
               {config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") && (

app/services/simulations/__tests__/input-policy.test.ts

@@ -1,11 +1,9 @@
 import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 import {
   getSimulatorInputPolicy,
-  prefersFuturesOdds,
   resolveRatings,
   resolveSourceElos,
-  ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
+  DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY,
-  FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
 } from "../input-policy";
 import type { SimulatorManifestProfile } from "../manifest";
 
@@ -190,86 +188,95 @@ describe("simulator input policy", () => {
     expect(resolved.get("missing-tail")).toMatchObject({ rating: -10, method: "worstKnownMinus" });
   });
 
-  it("lets a futures-first priority override a stored direct Elo", () => {
+  it("blends base Elo and futures odds into a single Elo by oddsWeight", () => {
     const inputs = [
       { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: 1800, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
       { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: 1200, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
     ];
 
-    // Default (Elo-first): the stored direct Elo wins.
+    // oddsWeight 0: the stored base Elo wins outright.
-    const eloFirst = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {});
+    const eloOnly = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0 } });
-    expect(eloFirst.get("favorite")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1800, method: "direct" });
+    expect(eloOnly.get("favorite")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1800, method: "direct" });
 
-    // Futures-first: odds win even though a direct Elo is present.
+    // oddsWeight 1: futures fully override the base Elo.
-    const futuresFirst = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {
+    const oddsOnly = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 1 } });
-      inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY },
+    expect(oddsOnly.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
-    });
+    expect(oddsOnly.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
-    expect(futuresFirst.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+
-    expect(futuresFirst.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+    // Between: a blend that sits strictly between the base and the odds-derived Elo.
+    const oddsElo = oddsOnly.get("favorite")!.sourceElo;
+    const blended = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.5 } });
+    expect(blended.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("blend");
+    const blendedElo = blended.get("favorite")!.sourceElo;
+    expect(blendedElo).toBeGreaterThan(Math.min(1800, oddsElo));
+    expect(blendedElo).toBeLessThan(Math.max(1800, oddsElo));
+    expect(blendedElo).toBeCloseTo(Math.round(0.5 * 1800 + 0.5 * oddsElo), 0);
   });
 
-  it("lets a futures-first priority override stored projected wins", () => {
+  it("blends projected wins with futures odds when both are present", () => {
     const inputs = [
       { participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null },
       { participantId: "team-2", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: 20, projectedTablePoints: null },
     ];
 
-    // Default (Elo-first): projectedWins outranks odds.
+    // oddsWeight 0: projectedWins is the base.
-    expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82 }).get("team-1")?.method).toBe("projectedWins");
+    expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0 } }).get("team-1")?.method)
+      .toBe("projectedWins");
 
-    // Futures-first: odds win over projections.
+    // oddsWeight 1: futures override the projection.
-    const futuresFirst = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {
+    expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 1 } }).get("team-1")?.method)
-      seasonGames: 82,
+      .toBe("sourceOdds");
-      inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY },
+
-    });
+    // Between: blended.
-    expect(futuresFirst.get("team-1")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+    expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.4 } }).get("team-1")?.method)
+      .toBe("blend");
   });
 
-  it("lets a futures-first priority override a stored direct rating", () => {
+  it("blends a direct rating with futures odds by oddsWeight", () => {
     const ratingProfile = { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } } as Pick<SimulatorManifestProfile, "derivableInputs">;
     const inputs = [
       { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: 30, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
       { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: -5, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
     ];
 
-    // Default: direct rating wins.
+    // oddsWeight 0: direct rating wins.
-    expect(resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35 } }).get("favorite"))
+    expect(resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 0 } }).get("favorite"))
       .toMatchObject({ rating: 30, method: "direct" });
 
-    // Futures-first: odds win.
+    // oddsWeight 1: odds override the rating.
     expect(
       resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, {
-        inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY },
+        inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 1 },
       }).get("favorite")?.method
     ).toBe("sourceOdds");
+
+    // Between: blended.
+    expect(
+      resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, {
+        inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 0.5 },
+      }).get("favorite")?.method
+    ).toBe("blend");
   });
 
-  it("parses and clamps the input policy source priority and odds weight", () => {
+  it("parses and clamps the base Elo priority and odds weight", () => {
     const defaults = getSimulatorInputPolicy({});
-    expect(defaults.sourceEloPriority).toEqual(ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY);
+    expect(defaults.baseEloPriority).toEqual(DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY);
     expect(defaults.oddsWeight).toBe(0.3);
 
     // oddsWeight can be sourced from the top-level config or the input policy,
-    // and is clamped to [0, 1]; junk priority entries are dropped.
+    // and is clamped to [0, 1]; junk base-priority entries are dropped.
     expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ oddsWeight: 0.6 }).oddsWeight).toBe(0.6);
     expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 5 } }).oddsWeight).toBe(1);
     expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: -2 } }).oddsWeight).toBe(0);
     expect(
-      getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: ["sourceOdds", "bogus", "sourceElo"] } }).sourceEloPriority
+      getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds", "sourceElo"] } }).baseEloPriority
-    ).toEqual(["sourceOdds", "sourceElo"]);
+    ).toEqual(["projectedWins", "sourceElo"]);
     // An empty/all-invalid priority falls back to the default.
-    expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: ["nope"] } }).sourceEloPriority).toEqual(
+    expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["nope"] } }).baseEloPriority).toEqual(
-      ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY
+      DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY
     );
   });
 
-  it("detects whether a priority prefers futures odds", () => {
-    expect(prefersFuturesOdds(ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY)).toBe(false);
-    expect(prefersFuturesOdds(FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY)).toBe(true);
-    expect(prefersFuturesOdds(["projectedWins", "sourceElo"])).toBe(false);
-    expect(prefersFuturesOdds(["sourceOdds"])).toBe(true);
-  });
-
   it("uses NCAAW-style rating scale when deriving and falling back", () => {
     const resolved = resolveRatings(
       [

app/services/simulations/__tests__/manifest.test.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { SIMULATOR_MANIFEST } from "../manifest";
 import { SIMULATOR_TYPES } from "../registry";
-import { getSimulatorInputPolicy, prefersFuturesOdds } from "../input-policy";
+import { getSimulatorInputPolicy } from "../input-policy";
 import { assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree } from "~/models/simulator";
 
 describe("simulator manifest", () => {
@@ -41,19 +41,15 @@ describe("simulator manifest", () => {
     }
   });
 
-  it("defaults futures-centric simulators to a futures-override source priority", () => {
+  it("exposes the per-profile futures blend weight through the input policy", () => {
-    const futuresCentric = ["ncaam_bracket", "ncaaw_bracket", "world_cup", "ncaa_football_bracket", "college_hockey_bracket"] as const;
-    for (const simulatorType of futuresCentric) {
-      const policy = getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType].defaultConfig);
-      expect(prefersFuturesOdds(policy.sourceEloPriority)).toBe(true);
-    }
-  });
-
-  it("exposes the blended Elo/odds weight through the input policy", () => {
     expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.ncaa_football_bracket.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0.4);
     expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.world_cup.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0.3);
-    // A non-futures team sport keeps the Elo-first default.
+    expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.ucl_bracket.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0.3);
-    expect(prefersFuturesOdds(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.nba_bracket.defaultConfig).sourceEloPriority)).toBe(false);
+    // College hockey blends odds internally, so the central blend is disabled.
+    expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.college_hockey_bracket.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0);
+    // Every profile resolves to the default base-Elo priority unless overridden.
+    expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.nba_bracket.defaultConfig).baseEloPriority)
+      .toEqual(["sourceElo", "projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints"]);
   });
 
   it("keeps EPL projection and match parity as separate config knobs", () => {

app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts

@@ -143,42 +143,14 @@ describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
       }
     });
 
-    it("uses futures odds when sourceOdds present", async () => {
+    it("runs from the resolved Elo (futures already blended upstream)", async () => {
-      setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS, { includeOdds: true });
+      // sourceElo is the single resolved Elo; the sim no longer reads sourceOdds.
+      setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
       const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
       expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
       const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
       expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
     });
-
-    it("honors the oddsWeight context when odds and Elo disagree", async () => {
-      // team-12 has the worst Elo but by far the best futures odds.
-      function setupConflicting() {
-        const participants = makeParticipants(TEAM_IDS);
-        const evRows = TEAM_IDS.map((participantId, i) => ({
-          participantId,
-          sourceElo: 1700 - i * 50,
-          sourceOdds: i === 11 ? -100000 : 50000,
-        }));
-        mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
-          const callIndex = selectCallCount++;
-          const data = callIndex === 0 ? participants : evRows;
-          return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
-        });
-      }
-
-      setupConflicting();
-      const pureOdds = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1", { config: {}, oddsWeight: 1 });
-      selectCallCount = 0;
-      setupConflicting();
-      const pureElo = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1", { config: {}, oddsWeight: 0 });
-
-      const champByOdds = pureOdds.find((r) => r.participantId === "team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0;
-      const champByElo = pureElo.find((r) => r.participantId === "team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0;
-      // With the odds signal fully weighted, the odds-favored team wins far more
-      // often than when only its (worst) Elo drives the result.
-      expect(champByOdds).toBeGreaterThan(champByElo);
-    });
   });
 
   // ── Pre-bracket mode (>12 teams — probabilistic selection) ───────────────

app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts

@@ -6,54 +6,36 @@ export type MissingEloStrategy = "block" | "fallbackElo" | "averageKnown" | "wor
 export type MissingRatingStrategy = "block" | "fallbackRating" | "averageKnown" | "worstKnownMinus";
 
 /**
- * Sources a participant's strength input can be derived from, in the order the
+ * "Base" strength sources — the ways to produce a participant's underlying Elo
- * resolver should try them. `"sourceElo"` represents the simulator's primary
+ * before any futures-odds blend. These are *substitutes* (a season rarely has
- * direct input — a manually entered Elo for Elo-based sims, or the direct
+ * more than one), so they are tried in order and the first available one wins.
- * `rating` for rating-based sims. Placing `"sourceOdds"` ahead of `"sourceElo"`
+ * Futures odds are not in this list: they blend on top of the base Elo via
- * is how an admin makes futures odds override stored Elo/ratings.
+ * `oddsWeight`, rather than being one more interchangeable base.
  */
-export type SourceEloKey = "sourceElo" | "projectedWins" | "projectedTablePoints" | "sourceOdds";
+export type BaseEloKey = "sourceElo" | "projectedWins" | "projectedTablePoints";
 
-export const SOURCE_ELO_KEYS: readonly SourceEloKey[] = [
+export const BASE_ELO_KEYS: readonly BaseEloKey[] = [
-  "sourceElo",
-  "projectedWins",
-  "projectedTablePoints",
-  "sourceOdds",
-];
-
-/** Default priority: stored Elo/projections win, futures odds are the fallback. */
-export const ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY: SourceEloKey[] = [
-  "sourceElo",
-  "projectedWins",
-  "projectedTablePoints",
-  "sourceOdds",
-];
-
-/** Futures-override priority: freshly entered odds win over stored Elo/projections. */
-export const FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY: SourceEloKey[] = [
-  "sourceOdds",
   "sourceElo",
   "projectedWins",
   "projectedTablePoints",
 ];
 
-/** Whether a priority list prefers futures odds over the direct Elo/rating input. */
+/** Default order for choosing the base Elo: raw Elo, then projections. */
-export function prefersFuturesOdds(priority: SourceEloKey[]): boolean {
+export const DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY: BaseEloKey[] = [
-  const oddsIndex = priority.indexOf("sourceOdds");
+  "sourceElo",
-  const eloIndex = priority.indexOf("sourceElo");
+  "projectedWins",
-  if (oddsIndex === -1) return false;
+  "projectedTablePoints",
-  return eloIndex === -1 || oddsIndex < eloIndex;
+];
-}
 
 export interface SimulatorInputPolicy {
   missingEloStrategy: MissingEloStrategy;
   missingRatingStrategy: MissingRatingStrategy;
-  /** Ordered preference for deriving a participant's strength input. */
+  /** Order for choosing the base strength Elo from its substitutable sources. */
-  sourceEloPriority: SourceEloKey[];
+  baseEloPriority: BaseEloKey[];
   /**
-   * Weight (0–1) given to the futures-odds signal in simulators that blend Elo
+   * Weight (0–1) of the futures-odds-derived Elo when blending with the base Elo
-   * and odds (UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB, college hockey). The Elo
+   * into the single Elo that feeds every simulator. `0` = base only (Elo /
-   * signal gets `1 - oddsWeight`. Set to 1.0 to make futures fully override Elo.
+   * projections), `1` = futures fully override the base, in between = blend.
    */
   oddsWeight: number;
   fallbackElo: number;
@@ -78,13 +60,13 @@ export interface ParticipantInputForPolicy {
 export interface ResolvedSourceElo {
   participantId: string;
   sourceElo: number;
-  method: "direct" | "projectedWins" | "projectedTablePoints" | "sourceOdds" | MissingEloStrategy;
+  method: "direct" | "projectedWins" | "projectedTablePoints" | "sourceOdds" | "blend" | MissingEloStrategy;
 }
 
 export interface ResolvedRating {
   participantId: string;
   rating: number;
-  method: "direct" | "sourceOdds" | MissingRatingStrategy;
+  method: "direct" | "sourceOdds" | "blend" | MissingRatingStrategy;
 }
 
 const DEFAULT_ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.3;
@@ -92,7 +74,7 @@ const DEFAULT_ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.3;
 const DEFAULT_POLICY: SimulatorInputPolicy = {
   missingEloStrategy: "block",
   missingRatingStrategy: "block",
-  sourceEloPriority: ELO_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY,
+  baseEloPriority: DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY,
   oddsWeight: DEFAULT_ODDS_WEIGHT,
   fallbackElo: 1400,
   fallbackEloDelta: 25,
@@ -132,14 +114,14 @@ function projectionToElo(
   return clamp(Math.round(elo), policy.eloMin, policy.eloMax);
 }
 
-function parseSourceEloPriority(value: unknown, fallback: SourceEloKey[]): SourceEloKey[] {
+function parseBaseEloPriority(value: unknown, fallback: BaseEloKey[]): BaseEloKey[] {
   if (!Array.isArray(value)) return fallback;
-  const seen = new Set<SourceEloKey>();
+  const seen = new Set<BaseEloKey>();
-  const parsed: SourceEloKey[] = [];
+  const parsed: BaseEloKey[] = [];
   for (const entry of value) {
-    if (typeof entry === "string" && (SOURCE_ELO_KEYS as readonly string[]).includes(entry) && !seen.has(entry as SourceEloKey)) {
+    if (typeof entry === "string" && (BASE_ELO_KEYS as readonly string[]).includes(entry) && !seen.has(entry as BaseEloKey)) {
-      seen.add(entry as SourceEloKey);
+      seen.add(entry as BaseEloKey);
-      parsed.push(entry as SourceEloKey);
+      parsed.push(entry as BaseEloKey);
     }
   }
   return parsed.length > 0 ? parsed : fallback;
@@ -159,7 +141,7 @@ export function getSimulatorInputPolicy(config: Record<string, unknown>): Simula
       ratingStrategy === "fallbackRating" || ratingStrategy === "averageKnown" || ratingStrategy === "worstKnownMinus"
         ? ratingStrategy
         : "block",
-    sourceEloPriority: parseSourceEloPriority(rawPolicy.sourceEloPriority, DEFAULT_POLICY.sourceEloPriority),
+    baseEloPriority: parseBaseEloPriority(rawPolicy.baseEloPriority, DEFAULT_POLICY.baseEloPriority),
     // Allow oddsWeight to live either in inputPolicy (the unified knob) or at the
     // top level of config (legacy per-profile defaultConfig), preferring the policy.
     oddsWeight: clamp(
@@ -201,33 +183,26 @@ export function resolveSourceElos(
   const alternatives = new Set(profile.derivableInputs?.sourceElo ?? []);
   const parityFactor = optionalNumber(config.parityFactor, 400);
 
-  // Resolve each participant from the first source in the configured priority
+  // 1. Base Elo: the first available *substitutable* source per baseEloPriority.
-  // that (a) is permitted for this simulator and (b) has a value. The direct
+  //    `sourceElo` (raw) is always permitted; projections must be declared in
-  // `sourceElo` input is always permitted; the rest must be declared in the
+  //    the profile's derivableInputs.sourceElo.
-  // profile's `derivableInputs.sourceElo`. Reordering the priority so that
+  const baseElo = new Map<string, { elo: number; method: ResolvedSourceElo["method"] }>();
-  // `sourceOdds` precedes `sourceElo` makes freshly entered futures odds
+  for (const source of policy.baseEloPriority) {
-  // override a stale Elo (and projections) without destroying the stored value.
-  for (const source of policy.sourceEloPriority) {
     if (source !== "sourceElo" && !alternatives.has(source)) continue;
 
     if (source === "sourceElo") {
       for (const input of inputs) {
-        if (resolved.has(input.participantId)) continue;
+        if (baseElo.has(input.participantId)) continue;
         if (input.sourceElo !== null && input.sourceElo !== undefined) {
-          resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+          baseElo.set(input.participantId, { elo: input.sourceElo, method: "direct" });
-            participantId: input.participantId,
-            sourceElo: input.sourceElo,
-            method: "direct",
-          });
         }
       }
     } else if (source === "projectedWins") {
       const seasonGames = optionalNumber(config.seasonGames, Math.max(...inputs.map((input) => input.projectedWins ?? 0), 1));
       for (const input of inputs) {
-        if (resolved.has(input.participantId) || input.projectedWins === null || input.projectedWins === undefined) continue;
+        if (baseElo.has(input.participantId) || input.projectedWins === null || input.projectedWins === undefined) continue;
-        resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+        baseElo.set(input.participantId, {
-          participantId: input.participantId,
+          elo: projectionToElo(input.projectedWins, seasonGames, parityFactor, policy),
-          sourceElo: projectionToElo(input.projectedWins, seasonGames, parityFactor, policy),
           method: "projectedWins",
         });
       }
@@ -235,38 +210,68 @@ export function resolveSourceElos(
       const seasonGames = optionalNumber(config.seasonGames, 38);
       const maxPoints = optionalNumber(config.maxTablePoints, seasonGames * 3);
       for (const input of inputs) {
-        if (resolved.has(input.participantId) || input.projectedTablePoints === null || input.projectedTablePoints === undefined) continue;
+        if (baseElo.has(input.participantId) || input.projectedTablePoints === null || input.projectedTablePoints === undefined) continue;
-        resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+        baseElo.set(input.participantId, {
-          participantId: input.participantId,
+          elo: projectionToElo(input.projectedTablePoints, maxPoints, parityFactor, policy),
-          sourceElo: projectionToElo(input.projectedTablePoints, maxPoints, parityFactor, policy),
           method: "projectedTablePoints",
         });
       }
-    } else if (source === "sourceOdds") {
+    }
-      // Odds-derived Elo maps onto eloMin/eloMax via convertFuturesToElo; when
+  }
-      // mixed with direct Elo for other participants the two scales are not
+
-      // jointly calibrated. That mixed case is intentionally left as-is.
+  // 2. Odds-derived Elo (field-relative): only when futures odds are a permitted
+  //    source and at least two participants have odds (a spread is required).
+  const oddsElo = new Map<string, number>();
+  if (alternatives.has("sourceOdds")) {
     const oddsInputs = inputs
-        .filter((input) => !resolved.has(input.participantId) && input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined)
+      .filter((input) => input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined)
       .map((input) => ({ participantId: input.participantId, odds: input.sourceOdds as number }));
     if (oddsInputs.length === 1) {
       logger.warn(
         `resolveSourceElos: only 1 participant has sourceOdds (${oddsInputs[0].participantId}). ` +
-          `convertFuturesToElo requires at least 2 to derive a meaningful Elo spread — falling through to the next source.`
+        `convertFuturesToElo requires at least 2 to derive a meaningful Elo spread — ignoring the lone odds value.`
       );
     }
     if (oddsInputs.length >= 2) {
-        const converted = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInputs);
+      for (const [participantId, elo] of convertFuturesToElo(oddsInputs)) {
-        for (const [participantId, elo] of converted) {
+        oddsElo.set(participantId, elo);
-          resolved.set(participantId, {
+      }
-            participantId,
+    }
+  }
+
+  // 3. Blend base + odds into the single Elo that feeds the simulator.
+  const w = policy.oddsWeight;
+  for (const input of inputs) {
+    const base = baseElo.get(input.participantId);
+    const odds = oddsElo.get(input.participantId);
+    let elo: number;
+    let method: ResolvedSourceElo["method"];
+    if (base !== undefined && odds !== undefined) {
+      if (w <= 0) {
+        elo = base.elo;
+        method = base.method;
+      } else if (w >= 1) {
+        elo = odds;
+        method = "sourceOdds";
+      } else {
+        elo = (1 - w) * base.elo + w * odds;
+        method = "blend";
+      }
+    } else if (base !== undefined) {
+      elo = base.elo;
+      method = base.method;
+    } else if (odds !== undefined) {
+      elo = odds;
+      method = "sourceOdds";
+    } else {
+      continue;
+    }
+    resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+      participantId: input.participantId,
       sourceElo: clamp(Math.round(elo), policy.eloMin, policy.eloMax),
-            method: "sourceOdds",
+      method,
     });
   }
-      }
-    }
-  }
 
   const knownElos = [...resolved.values()].map((value) => value.sourceElo);
   const averageKnown = knownElos.length > 0
@@ -305,30 +310,25 @@ export function resolveRatings(
   const resolved = new Map<string, ResolvedRating>();
   const alternatives = new Set(profile.derivableInputs?.rating ?? []);
 
-  // Ratings share the configured priority list: the `"sourceElo"` slot stands
+  // Ratings follow the same single-value blend as Elo: the base is the direct
-  // for this simulator's direct strength input (here, `rating`), so ordering
+  // `rating`; futures odds (when permitted, scaled onto the rating range) blend
-  // `"sourceOdds"` ahead of `"sourceElo"` makes futures override the rating too.
+  // on top by oddsWeight. `0` = rating only, `1` = futures override.
-  // Projection sources do not apply to rating-based simulators and are skipped.
+  const baseRating = new Map<string, number>();
-  for (const source of policy.sourceEloPriority) {
-    if (source === "sourceElo") {
   for (const input of inputs) {
-        if (resolved.has(input.participantId)) continue;
     if (input.rating !== null && input.rating !== undefined) {
-          resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+      baseRating.set(input.participantId, input.rating);
-            participantId: input.participantId,
-            rating: input.rating,
-            method: "direct",
-          });
     }
   }
-    } else if (source === "sourceOdds" && alternatives.has("sourceOdds")) {
+
+  const oddsRating = new Map<string, number>();
+  if (alternatives.has("sourceOdds")) {
     const oddsInputs = inputs
-        .filter((input) => !resolved.has(input.participantId) && input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined)
+      .filter((input) => input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined)
       .map((input) => ({ participantId: input.participantId, odds: input.sourceOdds as number }));
     if (oddsInputs.length === 1) {
       logger.warn(
         `resolveRatings: only 1 participant has sourceOdds (${oddsInputs[0].participantId}). ` +
-          `convertFuturesToElo requires at least 2 to derive a meaningful rating — falling through to the next source.`
+        `convertFuturesToElo requires at least 2 to derive a meaningful rating — ignoring the lone odds value.`
       );
     }
     if (oddsInputs.length >= 2) {
@@ -338,15 +338,43 @@ export function resolveRatings(
         eloMax: policy.ratingMax,
       });
       for (const [participantId, rating] of converted) {
-          resolved.set(participantId, {
+        oddsRating.set(participantId, rating);
-            participantId,
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  const w = policy.oddsWeight;
+  for (const input of inputs) {
+    const base = baseRating.get(input.participantId);
+    const odds = oddsRating.get(input.participantId);
+    let rating: number;
+    let method: ResolvedRating["method"];
+    if (base !== undefined && odds !== undefined) {
+      if (w <= 0) {
+        rating = base;
+        method = "direct";
+      } else if (w >= 1) {
+        rating = odds;
+        method = "sourceOdds";
+      } else {
+        rating = (1 - w) * base + w * odds;
+        method = "blend";
+      }
+    } else if (base !== undefined) {
+      rating = base;
+      method = "direct";
+    } else if (odds !== undefined) {
+      rating = odds;
+      method = "sourceOdds";
+    } else {
+      continue;
+    }
+    resolved.set(input.participantId, {
+      participantId: input.participantId,
       rating: clamp(rating, policy.ratingMin, policy.ratingMax),
-            method: "sourceOdds",
+      method,
     });
   }
-      }
-    }
-  }
 
   const knownRatings = [...resolved.values()].map((value) => value.rating);
   const averageKnown = knownRatings.length > 0

app/services/simulations/manifest.ts

@@ -40,15 +40,6 @@ const BASE_CONFIG = {
   iterations: 50_000,
 };
 
-// Source-resolution priority that makes freshly entered futures odds win over a
-// stored Elo/rating (and projections). Used as the default for simulators where
-// futures odds are a deliberate, primary input (those exposing a Futures Odds
-// setup section). Admins can still override this per season in the Input Policy.
-// Kept as a local literal (not imported from input-policy) to avoid a circular
-// module dependency that would be evaluated before input-policy's consts exist.
-// Mirrors FUTURES_FIRST_SOURCE_PRIORITY in input-policy.ts.
-const FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY = ["sourceOdds", "sourceElo", "projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints"] as const;
-
 const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorType" | "displayName" | "description">> = {
   f1_standings: {
     defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, raceNoise: 0.5, participantVolatility: 1.5 },
@@ -75,20 +66,21 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
   },
   ucl_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, eloWeight: 0.7, oddsWeight: 0.3 },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, oddsWeight: 0.3 },
-    requiredInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
+    requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
-    optionalInputs: ["sourceElo"],
+    optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
+    derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
     setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
   },
   ncaam_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, ratingScaleFactor: 7.5, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, fallbackRatingDelta: 5, sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY } },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, ratingScaleFactor: 7.5, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, fallbackRatingDelta: 5 } },
     requiredInputs: ["rating"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "sourceElo", "seed", "region"],
     derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
     setupSections: ["participants", "ratings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
   },
   ncaaw_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97, missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 0.01, sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY } },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97, missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 0.01 } },
     requiredInputs: ["rating"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "seed", "region"],
     derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
@@ -165,7 +157,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
   },
   world_cup: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloWeight: 0.7, oddsWeight: 0.3, inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY, oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, oddsWeight: 0.3 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
     derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
@@ -184,7 +176,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "cs2Setup", "events"],
   },
   ncaa_football_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, bracketSize: 12, eloWeight: 0.6, oddsWeight: 0.4, inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY, oddsWeight: 0.4 } },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, bracketSize: 12, oddsWeight: 0.4 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
     derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
@@ -197,7 +189,10 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds"],
   },
   college_hockey_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, bracketSize: 16, parityFactor: 850, inputPolicy: { sourceEloPriority: FUTURES_FIRST_PRIORITY } },
+    // College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and also uses NPI
+    // rank, which the central resolver can't), so the central blend is disabled
+    // (oddsWeight 0) to avoid double-counting the odds.
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, bracketSize: 16, parityFactor: 850, oddsWeight: 0 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
     derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },

app/services/simulations/mlb-simulator.ts

@@ -73,12 +73,8 @@
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
-import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationContext } from "./types";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
-import {
-  convertAmericanOddsToProbability,
-  normalizeProbabilities,
-} from "~/services/probability-engine";
 import { getRegularSeasonStandings } from "~/models/regular-season-standings";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -103,12 +99,6 @@ const RDIF_DIVISOR = 8000;
  */
 const SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE = 1620;
 
-/**
- * Blend weights for RDif vs. Vegas futures odds when sourceOdds are available.
- */
-const RDIF_WEIGHT  = 0.7;
-const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - RDIF_WEIGHT;
-
 // ─── Team data (2026 pre-season — FanGraphs Depth Charts) ────────────────────
 //
 // rdif: Projected run differential from FanGraphs Depth Charts.
@@ -450,11 +440,7 @@ function simLeagueBracket(
 // ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
-  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
-    // RDif-vs-odds blend weight: configurable via the season input policy, with
-    // the historical 70/30 split as the default when invoked without context.
-    const oddsWeight = context?.oddsWeight ?? ODDS_WEIGHT;
-    const rdifWeight = 1 - oddsWeight;
     const db = database();
 
     // 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
@@ -525,33 +511,19 @@ export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
       );
     }
 
-    // ─── Futures odds blending ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    // ─── Strength from the resolved Elo ────────────────────────────────────────
+    // sourceElo is the single Elo produced by the input policy — already a blend
+    // of any raw Elo / projections / futures odds — so the simulator just reads it
+    // and no longer blends odds itself.
 
     const evRows = await db
       .select({
         participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
-        sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
         sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
       })
       .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
       .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
 
-    const oddsRows = evRows.filter(
-      (r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantIdSet.has(r.participantId)
-    );
-    const hasOdds = oddsRows.length > 0;
-
-    const normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
-    if (hasOdds) {
-      const rawProbs = oddsRows.map((r) =>
-        convertAmericanOddsToProbability(r.sourceOdds ?? 0)
-      );
-      const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(rawProbs);
-      oddsRows.forEach(({ participantId }, i) => {
-        normalizedOddsMap.set(participantId, normalized[i]);
-      });
-    }
-
     // Build a map of sourceElo-derived RDif values (overrides hardcoded TEAMS_DATA.rdif)
     // for playoff series win probability.
     const sourceEloRDifMap = new Map<string, number>();
@@ -579,20 +551,11 @@ export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
       rawWinRateMap.get(entry.id) ?? rawWinRateFromRDif(getEntryRDif(entry));
 
     /**
-     * Blended per-game win probability for team A over team B in a playoff series.
+     * Per-game win probability for team A over team B in a playoff series, from
-     * When odds are available: 70% RDif log5 + 30% vig-removed futures head-to-head.
+     * the (resolved-Elo-derived) run differential.
      */
-    const gameWinProb = (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry): number => {
+    const gameWinProb = (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry): number =>
-      const rdifProb = rdifWinProbability(effectiveRDif(a), effectiveRDif(b));
+      rdifWinProbability(effectiveRDif(a), effectiveRDif(b));
-      if (!hasOdds) return rdifProb;
-
-      const o1 = normalizedOddsMap.get(a.id);
-      const o2 = normalizedOddsMap.get(b.id);
-      // Fall back to RDif if either team lacks odds — avoids inflating one side to 100%.
-      if (o1 === null || o1 === undefined || o2 === null || o2 === undefined) return rdifProb;
-      const oddsProb = o1 + o2 > 0 ? o1 / (o1 + o2) : 0.5;
-      return rdifWeight * rdifProb + oddsWeight * oddsProb;
-    };
 
     // ─── Placement count maps ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
 

app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts

@@ -59,12 +59,8 @@
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
-import {
+import { eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
-  convertAmericanOddsToProbability,
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
-  convertFuturesToElo,
-  eloWinProbability,
-} from "~/services/probability-engine";
-import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationContext } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -72,15 +68,7 @@ const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
 const BRACKET_SIZE = 12;
 
 /**
- * Blend weights for per-game win probability when sourceOdds are present.
+ * Softmax temperature for Elo-based selection weights (pre-bracket mode).
- * Lower Elo weight than other sports (0.7) gives more influence to Vegas
- * championship odds, which are highly informative in college football.
- */
-const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6;
-const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
-
-/**
- * Softmax temperature for Elo-based selection weights (pre-bracket mode, no odds).
  * At T=100, a 200-point Elo gap produces ~7× weight difference — enough to strongly
  * favour the top teams while still giving bubble teams meaningful selection probability.
  */
@@ -90,37 +78,21 @@ const SELECTION_TEMP = 100;
 
 interface Team {
   participantId: string;
+  /** Single resolved Elo (already a blend of any raw Elo/FPI and futures odds). */
   elo: number;
-  /** Normalized futures win probability (0–1). Used for blending per-game win prob. */
+  /** Weight used for probabilistic CFP field selection (pre-bracket mode only). */
-  oddsProb: number;
-  /**
-   * Weight used for probabilistic CFP field selection (pre-bracket mode only).
-   * Derived from oddsProb when available; otherwise softmax on Elo.
-   */
   selectionWeight: number;
 }
 
 // ─── Helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-/**
+/** Win probability for team1 vs team2 from the single resolved Elo. */
- * Blended win probability for team1 vs team2.
+function gameWinProb(team1: Team, team2: Team): number {
- * Falls back to pure Elo when no futures data is present.
+  return eloWinProbability(team1.elo, team2.elo);
- */
-function blendedWinProb(team1: Team, team2: Team, oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT): number {
-  const eloProbValue = eloWinProbability(team1.elo, team2.elo);
-
-  if (team1.oddsProb === 0 && team2.oddsProb === 0) {
-    return eloProbValue;
-  }
-
-  const oddsSum = team1.oddsProb + team2.oddsProb;
-  const oddsProbValue = oddsSum > 0 ? team1.oddsProb / oddsSum : 0.5;
-
-  return (1 - oddsWeight) * eloProbValue + oddsWeight * oddsProbValue;
 }
 
-function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team, oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT): { winner: Team; loser: Team } {
+function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } {
-  const p1Wins = Math.random() < blendedWinProb(team1, team2, oddsWeight);
+  const p1Wins = Math.random() < gameWinProb(team1, team2);
   return p1Wins
     ? { winner: team1, loser: team2 }
     : { winner: team2, loser: team1 };
@@ -169,18 +141,18 @@ interface PlacementCounts {
  *   Semifinals:     qf1w vs qf2w, qf3w vs qf4w
  *   Championship:   sf1w vs sf2w
  */
-function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>, oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT): void {
+function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>): void {
   // ── First Round (seeds 5–12) ───────────────────────────────────────────────
-  const fr1 = simGame(teams[4], teams[11], oddsWeight); // 5 vs 12
+  const fr1 = simGame(teams[4], teams[11]); // 5 vs 12
-  const fr2 = simGame(teams[5], teams[10], oddsWeight); // 6 vs 11
+  const fr2 = simGame(teams[5], teams[10]); // 6 vs 11
-  const fr3 = simGame(teams[6], teams[9], oddsWeight);  // 7 vs 10
+  const fr3 = simGame(teams[6], teams[9]);  // 7 vs 10
-  const fr4 = simGame(teams[7], teams[8], oddsWeight);  // 8 vs 9
+  const fr4 = simGame(teams[7], teams[8]);  // 8 vs 9
 
   // ── Quarterfinals (seeds 1–4 get byes) ────────────────────────────────────
-  const qf1 = simGame(teams[0], fr4.winner, oddsWeight); // 1 vs 8/9 winner
+  const qf1 = simGame(teams[0], fr4.winner); // 1 vs 8/9 winner
-  const qf2 = simGame(teams[3], fr1.winner, oddsWeight); // 4 vs 5/12 winner
+  const qf2 = simGame(teams[3], fr1.winner); // 4 vs 5/12 winner
-  const qf3 = simGame(teams[2], fr2.winner, oddsWeight); // 3 vs 6/11 winner
+  const qf3 = simGame(teams[2], fr2.winner); // 3 vs 6/11 winner
-  const qf4 = simGame(teams[1], fr3.winner, oddsWeight); // 2 vs 7/10 winner
+  const qf4 = simGame(teams[1], fr3.winner); // 2 vs 7/10 winner
 
   const bump = (id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts) => {
     const entry = counts.get(id);
@@ -193,14 +165,14 @@ function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>, od
   bump(qf4.loser.participantId, "qfLoser");
 
   // ── Semifinals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  const sf1 = simGame(qf1.winner, qf2.winner, oddsWeight);
+  const sf1 = simGame(qf1.winner, qf2.winner);
-  const sf2 = simGame(qf3.winner, qf4.winner, oddsWeight);
+  const sf2 = simGame(qf3.winner, qf4.winner);
 
   bump(sf1.loser.participantId, "sfLoser");
   bump(sf2.loser.participantId, "sfLoser");
 
   // ── National Championship ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
-  const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner, oddsWeight);
+  const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner);
 
   bump(final.winner.participantId, "champion");
   bump(final.loser.participantId, "finalist");
@@ -209,12 +181,8 @@ function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>, od
 // ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
-  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
     const db = database();
-    // Elo-vs-odds blend weight: configurable via the season input policy, with
-    // the historical 60/40 split as the default when invoked without context.
-    const oddsWeight = context?.oddsWeight ?? ODDS_WEIGHT;
-
     // 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
     const participants = await db
       .select({ id: schema.seasonParticipants.id })
@@ -228,79 +196,35 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
       );
     }
 
-    // 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings and optional futures odds in a single query.
+    // 2. Load the resolved single Elo (the input policy already blended any
+    //    raw Elo/FPI and futures odds into sourceElo before the run).
     const evRows = await db
       .select({
         participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
         sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
-        sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
       })
       .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
       .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
 
-    // Build Elo and raw odds maps in a single pass.
     const eloFromDb = new Map<string, number>();
-    const rawOddsProbs = new Map<string, number>();
-
     for (const row of evRows) {
       if (row.sourceElo !== null) {
         eloFromDb.set(row.participantId, row.sourceElo);
       }
-      if (row.sourceOdds !== null) {
-        rawOddsProbs.set(row.participantId, convertAmericanOddsToProbability(row.sourceOdds));
-      }
     }
 
-    // 3. Build normalized odds probability map (vig removed).
+    // 3. Build team list; field-selection weight is a softmax on the resolved Elo.
-    const normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
-
-    if (rawOddsProbs.size > 0) {
-      const rawSum = [...rawOddsProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-      for (const [id, prob] of rawOddsProbs) {
-        normalizedOddsMap.set(id, rawSum > 0 ? prob / rawSum : 0);
-      }
-
-      // Backfill Elo from futures for any team missing sourceElo.
-      if (eloFromDb.size < participants.length) {
-        const oddsInput = evRows
-          .filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && !eloFromDb.has(r.participantId))
-          .map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
-
-        if (oddsInput.length > 0) {
-          const oddsEloMap = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
-          for (const [id, elo] of oddsEloMap) {
-            eloFromDb.set(id, elo);
-          }
-        }
-      }
-    }
-
-    // 4. Build team list with Elo, oddsProb, and selectionWeight.
-    const hasOdds = normalizedOddsMap.size > 0;
-
     const allTeams: Team[] = participants.map((p) => ({
       participantId: p.id,
       elo: eloFromDb.get(p.id) ?? 1500,
-      oddsProb: normalizedOddsMap.get(p.id) ?? 0,
       selectionWeight: 0, // computed below
     }));
 
-    if (hasOdds) {
+    const maxElo = Math.max(...allTeams.map((t) => t.elo));
-      // Selection weight = normalized championship implied probability.
-      // This encodes both "probability of making the field" and "strength once there."
-      for (const team of allTeams) {
-        team.selectionWeight = normalizedOddsMap.get(team.participantId) ?? 0;
-      }
-    } else {
-      // No odds: softmax on Elo so top-rated teams are strongly favoured.
-      const eloValues = allTeams.map((t) => t.elo);
-      const maxElo = Math.max(...eloValues);
-      // Subtract max for numerical stability before exp().
     const expWeights = allTeams.map((t) => Math.exp((t.elo - maxElo) / SELECTION_TEMP));
     const expSum = expWeights.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
     for (let i = 0; i < allTeams.length; i++) {
-        allTeams[i].selectionWeight = expWeights[i] / expSum;
+      allTeams[i].selectionWeight = expSum > 0 ? expWeights[i] / expSum : 1 / allTeams.length;
-      }
     }
 
     const preBracketMode = participants.length > BRACKET_SIZE;
@@ -321,7 +245,7 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
       const field = preBracketMode
         ? sampleBracketField(allTeams, BRACKET_SIZE)
         : (deterministicField ?? []);
-      simulateBracket(field, counts, oddsWeight);
+      simulateBracket(field, counts);
     }
 
     // 7. Convert counts to probability distributions.

app/services/simulations/runner.ts

@@ -16,7 +16,6 @@ import {
   prepareSimulatorInputsForRun,
   validateSimulatorReadiness,
 } from "~/models/simulator";
-import { getSimulatorInputPolicy } from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
 
 const ZERO_PROBS = {
   probFirst: 0,
@@ -106,10 +105,7 @@ export async function runSportsSeasonSimulation(
 
   try {
     const simulator = getSimulator(simulatorConfig.simulatorType);
-    const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId, {
+    const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
-      config: simulatorConfig.config,
-      oddsWeight: getSimulatorInputPolicy(simulatorConfig.config).oddsWeight,
-    });
 
     if (results.length === 0) {
       throw new Error("Simulation returned no results. Check that participants have simulator input data.");

app/services/simulations/types.ts

@@ -27,22 +27,13 @@ export interface SimulationResult {
   source: string;
 }
 
-/**
- * Optional run-time context handed to a simulator by the runner. Carries the
- * resolved season config and input policy so simulators can honor configurable
- * knobs (e.g. the Elo-vs-odds blend weight) without re-querying. It is optional
- * so simulators can still be invoked directly (e.g. in unit tests) with just a
- * season id, in which case they fall back to their built-in defaults.
- */
-export interface SimulationContext {
-  config: Record<string, unknown>;
-  /** Weight (0–1) for the futures-odds signal in blended simulators. */
-  oddsWeight: number;
-}
-
 /**
  * Common interface all sport simulators must implement.
+ *
+ * Simulators consume a single resolved Elo per participant (already blended from
+ * its sources — raw Elo, projections, futures odds — by the input policy and
+ * persisted before the run), so they need only the season id.
  */
 export interface Simulator {
-  simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]>;
+  simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]>;
 }

app/services/simulations/ucl-simulator.ts

@@ -37,20 +37,13 @@
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
-import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
+import { eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
-import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationContext } from "./types";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50000;
 
-/**
- * Weight given to the Elo-based win probability (derived from futures).
- * Remaining weight (1 - ELO_WEIGHT) goes to the normalized futures odds component.
- */
-const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
-const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
-
 // ─── Odds helper ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 /** Convert American odds to implied probability (with vig). Exported for testing. */
@@ -62,12 +55,8 @@ export function americanToImpliedProb(odds: number): number {
 // ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class UCLSimulator implements Simulator {
-  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
     const db = database();
-    // Elo-vs-odds blend weight: configurable via the season input policy, with
-    // the historical 70/30 split as the default when invoked without context.
-    const oddsWeight = context?.oddsWeight ?? ODDS_WEIGHT;
-    const eloWeight = 1 - oddsWeight;
 
     // 1. Find the bracket scoring event for this sports season.
     //    UCL has exactly one playoff_game event per season.
@@ -146,52 +135,26 @@ export class UCLSimulator implements Simulator {
       participantIds.push(m.participant1Id ?? "", m.participant2Id ?? "");
     }
     const participantSet = new Set(participantIds);
-    const fallbackProb = 1 / participantIds.length;
 
-    // 5. Load futures odds from participantExpectedValues.
+    // 5. Load the resolved single Elo (input policy already blended any raw Elo
+    //    and futures odds into sourceElo before the run).
     const evRows = await db
       .select({
         participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
-        sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
+        sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
       })
       .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
       .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
 
-    const evMap = new Map(evRows.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
+    // 6. Build the Elo map; teams without a resolved Elo fall back to 1500.
-
+    const eloMap = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 1500]));
-    // 6. Build Elo map via the futures → Elo pipeline.
+    for (const r of evRows) {
-    const hasOdds = evRows.some(
+      if (r.sourceElo !== null && r.sourceElo !== undefined && participantSet.has(r.participantId)) {
-      (r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId)
+        eloMap.set(r.participantId, r.sourceElo);
-    );
+      }
-
-    let eloMap: Map<string, number>;
-    if (hasOdds) {
-      const oddsInput = evRows
-        .filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId))
-        .map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
-      eloMap = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
-    } else {
-      // No odds stored — all teams get equal Elo (coin-flip bracket)
-      eloMap = new Map(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 1500]));
     }
 
-    // 7. Build normalized futures win-probability map (vig removed).
+    // 7. Build per-round lookup maps keyed by matchNumber for O(1) access in the hot loop.
-    //    Used as the second signal in the blended per-match probability.
-    const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
-    for (const id of participantIds) {
-      const ev = evMap.get(id);
-      rawProbs.set(
-        id,
-        ev !== undefined && ev.sourceOdds !== null && ev.sourceOdds !== undefined ? americanToImpliedProb(ev.sourceOdds) : fallbackProb
-      );
-    }
-    const rawSum = [...rawProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
-    const normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
-    for (const [id, prob] of rawProbs) {
-      normalizedOddsMap.set(id, prob / rawSum);
-    }
-
-    // 8. Build per-round lookup maps keyed by matchNumber for O(1) access in the hot loop.
     const r16ByNum = new Map(r16Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
     const qfByNum = new Map(qfMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
     const sfByNum = new Map(sfMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
@@ -199,17 +162,11 @@ export class UCLSimulator implements Simulator {
 
     // ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-    /** Blended Elo + normalized-odds win probability for p1 vs p2. */
+    /** Pure-Elo win probability for p1 vs p2 (single resolved Elo per team). */
     const blendedWinProb = (p1: string, p2: string): number => {
       const elo1 = eloMap.get(p1) ?? 1500;
       const elo2 = eloMap.get(p2) ?? 1500;
-      const eloProb = eloWinProbability(elo1, elo2);
+      return eloWinProbability(elo1, elo2);
-
-      const o1 = normalizedOddsMap.get(p1) ?? fallbackProb;
-      const o2 = normalizedOddsMap.get(p2) ?? fallbackProb;
-      const oddsProb = o1 + o2 > 0 ? o1 / (o1 + o2) : 0.5;
-
-      return eloWeight * eloProb + oddsWeight * oddsProb;
     };
 
     const simMatch = (p1: string, p2: string): { winner: string; loser: string } => {

app/services/simulations/world-cup-simulator.ts

@@ -38,13 +38,13 @@
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
-import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
+import { eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
 import { simulateEloSoccerMatch } from "./soccer-helpers";
 import { normalizeSimulationResultColumns } from "./simulation-probabilities";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { FIFA_48 } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
 import { FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE, assignThirdPlaceSlots } from "~/lib/fifa-2026-bracket";
-import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationContext } from "./types";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Name normalisation (same logic as elo-ratings bulk-import fuzzy match) ──
 
@@ -55,8 +55,6 @@ function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
 // ─── Parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10_000;
-const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
-const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
 
 /** Base draw rate when teams are evenly matched. Decays with Elo difference. */
 const BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.28;
@@ -274,14 +272,10 @@ function sortTeams(a: TeamStats, b: TeamStats): number {
 function simKnockout(
   teamA: string,
   teamB: string,
-  eloFn: (id: string) => number,
+  eloFn: (id: string) => number
-  normalizedProb: (id: string) => number,
-  oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT
 ): { winner: string; loser: string } {
-  const eloProb = eloWinProbability(eloFn(teamA), eloFn(teamB));
+  const winProb = eloWinProbability(eloFn(teamA), eloFn(teamB));
-  const oddsProb = normalizedProb(teamA);
+  const winner = Math.random() < winProb ? teamA : teamB;
-  const blended = (1 - oddsWeight) * eloProb + oddsWeight * (0.5 + (oddsProb - 0.5));
-  const winner = Math.random() < blended ? teamA : teamB;
   return { winner, loser: winner === teamA ? teamB : teamA };
 }
 
@@ -319,9 +313,7 @@ function runKnockoutRoundByNumber(
   roundName: string,
   matches: Map<number, KnockoutMatch>,
   completed: Map<string, { winnerId: string; loserId: string }>,
-  eloFn: (id: string) => number,
+  eloFn: (id: string) => number
-  normalizedProb: (id: string) => number,
-  oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT
 ): {
   winnersByNumber: Map<number, string>;
   losersByNumber: Map<number, string>;
@@ -350,7 +342,7 @@ function runKnockoutRoundByNumber(
       winnerId = fixed.winnerId;
       loserId = fixed.loserId;
     } else if (m.p1 && m.p2) {
-      const result = simKnockout(m.p1, m.p2, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
+      const result = simKnockout(m.p1, m.p2, eloFn);
       winnerId = result.winner;
       loserId = result.loser;
     } else if (m.p1 || m.p2) {
@@ -448,10 +440,7 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
     this.numSimulations = numSimulations;
   }
 
-  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
-    // Elo-vs-odds blend weight for knockout matches: configurable via the season
-    // input policy, defaulting to the historical 70/30 split without context.
-    const oddsWeight = context?.oddsWeight ?? ODDS_WEIGHT;
     const db = database();
 
     // 1. Load all participants for this season
@@ -466,20 +455,19 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
     const participantIds = participantRows.map((p) => p.id);
     const participantNames = new Map(participantRows.map((p) => [p.id, p.name]));
 
-    // 2. Load stored ratings (sourceElo from Elo page, sourceOdds from futures page)
+    // 2. Load the resolved single Elo (the input policy already blended any raw
+    //    Elo and futures odds into sourceElo before the run).
     const evRows = await db
       .select({
         participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
-        sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
         sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
       })
       .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
       .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
 
-    const evMap = new Map(evRows.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
     const participantSet = new Set(participantIds);
 
-    // 3. Build Elo map — priority: sourceElo (direct) > sourceOdds (converted) > hardcoded
+    // 3. Build the Elo map — resolved sourceElo, else hardcoded national-team Elo.
     const sourceEloMap = new Map<string, number>();
     for (const r of evRows) {
       if (r.sourceElo !== null && r.sourceElo !== undefined && participantSet.has(r.participantId)) {
@@ -487,47 +475,13 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
       }
     }
 
-    const hasOdds = evRows.some(
-      (r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId)
-    );
-
-    let eloFromOdds: Map<string, number>;
-    if (hasOdds) {
-      const oddsInput = evRows
-        .filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId))
-        .map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
-      eloFromOdds = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
-    } else {
-      eloFromOdds = new Map();
-    }
-
     const eloFn = (id: string): number => {
       if (sourceEloMap.has(id)) return sourceEloMap.get(id) ?? 1500;
-      if (eloFromOdds.has(id)) return eloFromOdds.get(id) ?? 1500;
       const name = participantNames.get(id) ?? "";
       return getTeamElo(name, 1500);
     };
 
-    // 4. Build normalized futures win-probability map (vig removed)
+    // 4. Resolve the bracket scoring event. Prefer a fifa_48 playoff event; if
-    const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
-    for (const id of participantIds) {
-      const ev = evMap.get(id);
-      if (ev?.sourceOdds !== null && ev?.sourceOdds !== undefined) {
-        rawProbs.set(id, Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) > 0
-          ? ev.sourceOdds > 0
-            ? 100 / (ev.sourceOdds + 100)
-            : Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) / (Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) + 100)
-          : 1 / participantIds.length);
-      } else {
-        rawProbs.set(id, 1 / participantIds.length);
-      }
-    }
-
-    const totalRawProb = [...rawProbs.values()].reduce((s, p) => s + p, 0);
-    const normalizedProb = (id: string): number =>
-      totalRawProb > 0 ? (rawProbs.get(id) ?? 0) / totalRawProb : 1 / participantIds.length;
-
-    // 5. Resolve the bracket scoring event. Prefer a fifa_48 playoff event; if
     //    several playoff_game events exist, take the most recent so a re-created
     //    event wins over a stale one.
     const playoffEvents = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
@@ -719,10 +673,10 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
       // ── Knockout rounds ──────────────────────────────────────────
       // R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Third Place Game + Final, advancing via the
       // canonical ceil(n/2) tree. Completed matches lock in real results.
-      const r32 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R32, buildR32(), completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
+      const r32 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R32, buildR32(), completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn);
-      const r16 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R16, r32.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
+      const r16 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R16, r32.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn);
-      const qf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(QF, r16.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
+      const qf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(QF, r16.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn);
-      const sf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(SF, qf.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
+      const sf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(SF, qf.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn);
 
       // QF losers (placements 5–8)
       for (const id of qf.losersByNumber.values()) {
@@ -739,7 +693,7 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
           counts.fourthPlace.set(fixed3pg.loserId, (counts.fourthPlace.get(fixed3pg.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
         } else {
           const { winner: thirdWinner, loser: thirdLoser } = simKnockout(
-            sf1Loser, sf2Loser, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight
+            sf1Loser, sf2Loser, eloFn
           );
           counts.thirdPlace.set(thirdWinner, (counts.thirdPlace.get(thirdWinner) ?? 0) + 1);
           counts.fourthPlace.set(thirdLoser, (counts.fourthPlace.get(thirdLoser) ?? 0) + 1);
@@ -756,7 +710,7 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
           counts.runnerUp.set(fixedFinal.loserId, (counts.runnerUp.get(fixedFinal.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
         } else {
           const { winner: champion, loser: runnerUp } = simKnockout(
-            sfWinner1, sfWinner2, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight
+            sfWinner1, sfWinner2, eloFn
           );
           counts.champion.set(champion, (counts.champion.get(champion) ?? 0) + 1);
           counts.runnerUp.set(runnerUp, (counts.runnerUp.get(runnerUp) ?? 0) + 1);