* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 - New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners (weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series. Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available. - New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API, mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits. - New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line, headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference". - Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections (divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render. - DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum. - 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold 500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate). Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Chris Parsons
GitHub
parent
286a9afbbe
commit
2e2d8db777
13 changed files with 1479 additions and 19 deletions
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@ -44,8 +44,8 @@ interface Props {
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participantEvs?: Record<string, string>;
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/** How many teams per conference qualify for playoffs (flat mode only). 0 = no line. */
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playoffSpots?: number;
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/** "flat" = single ranked list per conference (NBA). "nhl-divisions" = div top-3 + wild card. */
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displayMode?: "flat" | "nhl-divisions";
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/** "flat" = single ranked list per conference (NBA). "nhl-divisions" = div top-3 + wild card. "mlb-divisions" = same structure with 3 WC spots, uses "League" label. */
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displayMode?: "flat" | "nhl-divisions" | "mlb-divisions";
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}
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type RankMode = "conference" | "division" | "index";
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@ -84,16 +84,19 @@ function getRank(row: StandingRow, idx: number, mode: RankMode): number {
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// ─── Grouping ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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type ConferenceGroup = { conference: string; conferenceLabel: string; sections: TableSection[] };
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function buildFlatSections(
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standings: StandingRow[],
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playoffSpots: number
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): Array<{ conference: string; sections: TableSection[] }> {
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): ConferenceGroup[] {
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const hasConferences = standings.some((s) => s.conference);
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if (!hasConferences) {
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return [
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{
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conference: "",
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conferenceLabel: "Conference",
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sections: [
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{
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rows: [...standings].toSorted(
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@ -116,6 +119,7 @@ function buildFlatSections(
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return Array.from(confMap.entries()).map(([conference, rows]) => ({
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conference,
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conferenceLabel: "Conference",
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sections: [
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{
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rows: [...rows].toSorted(
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@ -131,9 +135,18 @@ function buildFlatSections(
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}));
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}
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function buildNhlSections(
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standings: StandingRow[]
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): Array<{ conference: string; sections: TableSection[] }> {
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/**
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* Shared builder for division-based display modes (NHL and MLB).
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* `divisionSpots`: how many teams per division qualify directly (3 for NHL, 1 for MLB).
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* `wcSpots`: how many wildcard slots exist per conference (2 for NHL, 3 for MLB).
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* `conferenceLabel`: the word shown after the conference name in the heading.
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*/
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function buildDivisionSections(
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standings: StandingRow[],
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divisionSpots: number,
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wcSpots: number,
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conferenceLabel: string
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): ConferenceGroup[] {
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const confMap = new Map<string, StandingRow[]>();
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for (const row of standings) {
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const conf = row.conference ?? "Other";
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@ -153,7 +166,7 @@ function buildNhlSections(
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.map(([name, divRows]) => ({
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name,
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qualifiers: divRows
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.filter((r) => (r.divisionRank ?? 99) <= 3)
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.filter((r) => (r.divisionRank ?? 99) <= divisionSpots)
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.toSorted((a, b) => (a.divisionRank ?? 99) - (b.divisionRank ?? 99)),
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}))
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.toSorted(
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@ -163,7 +176,7 @@ function buildNhlSections(
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);
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const wildCard = rows
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.filter((r) => (r.divisionRank ?? 99) > 3)
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.filter((r) => (r.divisionRank ?? 99) > divisionSpots)
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.toSorted(
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(a, b) =>
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(a.conferenceRank ?? a.leagueRank ?? 99) -
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@ -184,17 +197,25 @@ function buildNhlSections(
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heading: "Wild Card",
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rows: wildCard,
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rankMode: "index" as RankMode,
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playoffSpots: 2,
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playoffSpots: wcSpots,
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showDivisionLabel: true,
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},
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]
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: []),
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];
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return { conference, sections };
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return { conference, conferenceLabel, sections };
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});
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}
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function buildNhlSections(standings: StandingRow[]): ConferenceGroup[] {
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return buildDivisionSections(standings, 3, 2, "Conference");
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}
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function buildMlbSections(standings: StandingRow[]): ConferenceGroup[] {
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return buildDivisionSections(standings, 1, 3, "League");
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}
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// ─── Single table that renders all sections ───────────────────────────────────
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function StandingsTable({
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@ -394,6 +415,8 @@ export function RegularSeasonStandings({
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const groups =
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displayMode === "nhl-divisions"
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? buildNhlSections(standings)
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: displayMode === "mlb-divisions"
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? buildMlbSections(standings)
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: buildFlatSections(standings, playoffSpots);
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const tableProps = { teamOwnerships, userParticipantIds, showOtLosses, participantEvs, hasEvs };
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@ -418,7 +441,7 @@ export function RegularSeasonStandings({
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<div key={group.conference} className="mb-6 last:mb-0">
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{group.conference && (
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<h3 className="text-sm font-semibold text-muted-foreground uppercase tracking-wide mb-3">
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{group.conference} Conference
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{group.conference} {group.conferenceLabel}
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</h3>
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)}
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<StandingsTable sections={group.sections} {...tableProps} />
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@ -180,3 +180,106 @@ describe("RegularSeasonStandings", () => {
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expect(streakEl.className).toContain("destructive");
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});
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});
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// ─── mlb-divisions display mode ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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function makeAlDivisionRows() {
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return [
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// AL East — division winner (divisionRank=1) + 2 WC candidates (divisionRank=2,3)
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makeRow({ id: "r1", participantId: "p1", conference: "AL", division: "AL East", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 1, participant: { id: "p1", name: "Baltimore Orioles" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r2", participantId: "p2", conference: "AL", division: "AL East", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 4, participant: { id: "p2", name: "Boston Red Sox" } }),
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// AL Central — division winner
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makeRow({ id: "r3", participantId: "p3", conference: "AL", division: "AL Central", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 2, participant: { id: "p3", name: "Cleveland Guardians" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r4", participantId: "p4", conference: "AL", division: "AL Central", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 5, participant: { id: "p4", name: "Minnesota Twins" } }),
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// AL West — division winner
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makeRow({ id: "r5", participantId: "p5", conference: "AL", division: "AL West", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 3, participant: { id: "p5", name: "Houston Astros" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r6", participantId: "p6", conference: "AL", division: "AL West", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 6, participant: { id: "p6", name: "Seattle Mariners" } }),
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// NL East
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makeRow({ id: "r7", participantId: "p7", conference: "NL", division: "NL East", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 1, participant: { id: "p7", name: "Philadelphia Phillies" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r8", participantId: "p8", conference: "NL", division: "NL East", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 4, participant: { id: "p8", name: "Atlanta Braves" } }),
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// NL Central
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makeRow({ id: "r9", participantId: "p9", conference: "NL", division: "NL Central", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 2, participant: { id: "p9", name: "Milwaukee Brewers" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r10", participantId: "p10", conference: "NL", division: "NL Central", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 5, participant: { id: "p10", name: "Chicago Cubs" } }),
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// NL West
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makeRow({ id: "r11", participantId: "p11", conference: "NL", division: "NL West", divisionRank: 1, conferenceRank: 3, participant: { id: "p11", name: "Los Angeles Dodgers" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r12", participantId: "p12", conference: "NL", division: "NL West", divisionRank: 2, conferenceRank: 6, participant: { id: "p12", name: "San Diego Padres" } }),
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];
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}
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describe("RegularSeasonStandings mlb-divisions mode", () => {
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it("renders 'AL League' and 'NL League' headings (not Conference)", () => {
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render(
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<RegularSeasonStandings
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standings={makeAlDivisionRows()}
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teamOwnerships={NO_OWNERSHIPS}
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userParticipantIds={NO_USER_IDS}
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displayMode="mlb-divisions"
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/>
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);
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expect(screen.getByText(/AL League/i)).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.getByText(/NL League/i)).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.queryByText(/AL Conference/i)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.queryByText(/NL Conference/i)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
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});
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it("renders division section headings", () => {
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render(
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<RegularSeasonStandings
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standings={makeAlDivisionRows()}
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teamOwnerships={NO_OWNERSHIPS}
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userParticipantIds={NO_USER_IDS}
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displayMode="mlb-divisions"
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/>
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);
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expect(screen.getByText("AL East Division")).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.getByText("AL Central Division")).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.getByText("AL West Division")).toBeInTheDocument();
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});
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it("renders Wild Card section heading", () => {
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render(
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<RegularSeasonStandings
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standings={makeAlDivisionRows()}
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teamOwnerships={NO_OWNERSHIPS}
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userParticipantIds={NO_USER_IDS}
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displayMode="mlb-divisions"
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/>
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);
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expect(screen.getAllByText("Wild Card").length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
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});
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it("division section contains only the division winner (divisionRank=1)", () => {
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render(
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<RegularSeasonStandings
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standings={makeAlDivisionRows()}
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teamOwnerships={NO_OWNERSHIPS}
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userParticipantIds={NO_USER_IDS}
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displayMode="mlb-divisions"
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/>
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);
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// Division winners should be rendered
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expect(screen.getByText("Baltimore Orioles")).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.getByText("Cleveland Guardians")).toBeInTheDocument();
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expect(screen.getByText("Houston Astros")).toBeInTheDocument();
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// Wild card teams (rank > 1) also rendered in Wild Card section
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expect(screen.getByText("Boston Red Sox")).toBeInTheDocument();
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});
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it("shows 'Playoff Line' after 3 teams in the Wild Card section", () => {
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// Add enough WC teams to trigger the playoff line (need >3 in the WC section)
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const standings = [
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...makeAlDivisionRows(),
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makeRow({ id: "r13", participantId: "p13", conference: "AL", division: "AL East", divisionRank: 3, conferenceRank: 7, participant: { id: "p13", name: "Tampa Bay Rays" } }),
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makeRow({ id: "r14", participantId: "p14", conference: "AL", division: "AL Central", divisionRank: 3, conferenceRank: 8, participant: { id: "p14", name: "Detroit Tigers" } }),
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];
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render(
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<RegularSeasonStandings
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standings={standings}
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teamOwnerships={NO_OWNERSHIPS}
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userParticipantIds={NO_USER_IDS}
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displayMode="mlb-divisions"
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/>
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);
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expect(screen.getAllByText(/Playoff Line/i).length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
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});
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});
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@ -73,10 +73,13 @@ export default function SportSeasonDetail({
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const simulatorType = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType;
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const standingsDisplayMode =
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simulatorType === "nhl_bracket" ? "nhl-divisions" : "flat";
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simulatorType === "nhl_bracket" ? "nhl-divisions" :
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simulatorType === "mlb_bracket" ? "mlb-divisions" :
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"flat";
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// NBA: 10 teams make the postseason (6 auto-qualify + 4 play-in)
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// AFL: top 10 advance to the finals series (Wildcard + QF/EF + SF + PF + GF)
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// NHL: handled by the nhl-divisions mode (3 per div + 2 wild cards)
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// NHL: handled by nhl-divisions mode (3 per div + 2 wild cards)
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// MLB: handled by mlb-divisions mode (1 per div + 3 wild cards)
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const playoffSpots =
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simulatorType === "nba_bracket" || simulatorType === "afl_bracket" ? 10 : 8;
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@ -120,7 +123,7 @@ export default function SportSeasonDetail({
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userParticipantIds={userParticipantIds}
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showOtLosses={showOtLosses}
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participantEvs={participantEvs}
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displayMode={standingsDisplayMode as "flat" | "nhl-divisions"}
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displayMode={standingsDisplayMode as "flat" | "nhl-divisions" | "mlb-divisions"}
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playoffSpots={playoffSpots}
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/>
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</div>
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@ -173,7 +176,7 @@ export default function SportSeasonDetail({
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userParticipantIds={userParticipantIds}
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showOtLosses={showOtLosses}
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participantEvs={participantEvs}
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displayMode={standingsDisplayMode as "flat" | "nhl-divisions"}
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displayMode={standingsDisplayMode as "flat" | "nhl-divisions" | "mlb-divisions"}
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playoffSpots={playoffSpots}
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/>
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</div>
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211
app/services/simulations/__tests__/mlb-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
211
app/services/simulations/__tests__/mlb-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
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import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
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import {
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normalizeTeamName,
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getTeamData,
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eloWinProbability,
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simBo3,
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simBo5,
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simBo7,
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} from "../mlb-simulator";
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// ─── normalizeTeamName ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("normalizeTeamName", () => {
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it("lowercases and trims", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName(" Los Angeles Dodgers ")).toBe("los angeles dodgers");
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});
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it("collapses internal whitespace", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName("New York Yankees")).toBe("new york yankees");
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});
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it("is identity for already-normalized strings", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName("houston astros")).toBe("houston astros");
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});
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});
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// ─── getTeamData ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("getTeamData", () => {
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it("returns data for an exact match", () => {
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const d = getTeamData("Los Angeles Dodgers");
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expect(d).toBeDefined();
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expect(d?.league).toBe("NL");
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expect(d?.division).toBe("NL West");
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expect(d?.elo).toBeGreaterThan(1500);
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});
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it("is case-insensitive", () => {
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expect(getTeamData("los angeles dodgers")).toEqual(getTeamData("Los Angeles Dodgers"));
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});
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it("returns undefined for an unknown team", () => {
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expect(getTeamData("Springfield Isotopes")).toBeUndefined();
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});
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it("all 30 MLB teams are present", () => {
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const allTeams = [
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// AL East
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"New York Yankees", "Baltimore Orioles", "Boston Red Sox",
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"Tampa Bay Rays", "Toronto Blue Jays",
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// AL Central
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"Kansas City Royals", "Cleveland Guardians", "Minnesota Twins",
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"Detroit Tigers", "Chicago White Sox",
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// AL West
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"Houston Astros", "Seattle Mariners", "Texas Rangers",
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"Los Angeles Angels", "Athletics",
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// NL East
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"Philadelphia Phillies", "Atlanta Braves", "New York Mets",
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"Washington Nationals", "Miami Marlins",
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// NL Central
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"Milwaukee Brewers", "Chicago Cubs", "St. Louis Cardinals",
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"Cincinnati Reds", "Pittsburgh Pirates",
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// NL West
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"Los Angeles Dodgers", "San Diego Padres", "Arizona Diamondbacks",
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"San Francisco Giants", "Colorado Rockies",
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];
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for (const name of allTeams) {
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expect(getTeamData(name), `missing team: ${name}`).toBeDefined();
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}
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});
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it("all teams have the correct league", () => {
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const alTeams = [
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"New York Yankees", "Baltimore Orioles", "Boston Red Sox", "Tampa Bay Rays", "Toronto Blue Jays",
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"Kansas City Royals", "Cleveland Guardians", "Minnesota Twins", "Detroit Tigers", "Chicago White Sox",
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"Houston Astros", "Seattle Mariners", "Texas Rangers", "Los Angeles Angels", "Athletics",
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];
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const nlTeams = [
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"Philadelphia Phillies", "Atlanta Braves", "New York Mets", "Washington Nationals", "Miami Marlins",
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"Milwaukee Brewers", "Chicago Cubs", "St. Louis Cardinals", "Cincinnati Reds", "Pittsburgh Pirates",
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"Los Angeles Dodgers", "San Diego Padres", "Arizona Diamondbacks", "San Francisco Giants", "Colorado Rockies",
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];
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for (const name of alTeams) {
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expect(getTeamData(name)?.league, `${name} should be AL`).toBe("AL");
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}
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for (const name of nlTeams) {
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expect(getTeamData(name)?.league, `${name} should be NL`).toBe("NL");
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}
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});
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});
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// ─── eloWinProbability ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("eloWinProbability (PARITY_FACTOR = 350)", () => {
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it("returns 0.5 for equal Elo ratings", () => {
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expect(eloWinProbability(1500, 1500)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 6);
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});
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it("favors the higher-rated team", () => {
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expect(eloWinProbability(1570, 1500)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
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expect(eloWinProbability(1500, 1570)).toBeLessThan(0.5);
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});
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it("is anti-symmetric: P(A>B) + P(B>A) = 1", () => {
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const p = eloWinProbability(1560, 1480);
|
||||
expect(p + eloWinProbability(1480, 1560)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("a 100-pt gap gives ~65.9% win prob per game", () => {
|
||||
// At 350: P = 1 / (1 + 10^(-100/350)) = 1 / (1 + 0.518) ≈ 0.659
|
||||
const p = eloWinProbability(1600, 1500);
|
||||
expect(p).toBeCloseTo(0.659, 2);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("returns a value strictly between 0 and 1", () => {
|
||||
expect(eloWinProbability(1200, 1800)).toBeGreaterThan(0);
|
||||
expect(eloWinProbability(1200, 1800)).toBeLessThan(1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Seeding probabilities sanity checks ─────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
describe("team seeding probabilities", () => {
|
||||
const DIVISIONS = {
|
||||
"AL East": ["New York Yankees", "Baltimore Orioles", "Boston Red Sox", "Tampa Bay Rays", "Toronto Blue Jays"],
|
||||
"AL Central": ["Kansas City Royals", "Cleveland Guardians", "Minnesota Twins", "Detroit Tigers", "Chicago White Sox"],
|
||||
"AL West": ["Houston Astros", "Seattle Mariners", "Texas Rangers", "Los Angeles Angels", "Athletics"],
|
||||
"NL East": ["Philadelphia Phillies", "Atlanta Braves", "New York Mets", "Washington Nationals", "Miami Marlins"],
|
||||
"NL Central": ["Milwaukee Brewers", "Chicago Cubs", "St. Louis Cardinals", "Cincinnati Reds", "Pittsburgh Pirates"],
|
||||
"NL West": ["Los Angeles Dodgers", "San Diego Padres", "Arizona Diamondbacks", "San Francisco Giants", "Colorado Rockies"],
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
it("p_div values sum to ~1.0 within each division", () => {
|
||||
for (const [divName, teams] of Object.entries(DIVISIONS)) {
|
||||
const sum = teams.reduce((s, name) => s + (getTeamData(name)?.p_div ?? 0), 0);
|
||||
expect(sum, `${divName} p_div sum should be ~1`).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("p_div + p_wc does not exceed 1.0 per team", () => {
|
||||
for (const teams of Object.values(DIVISIONS)) {
|
||||
for (const name of teams) {
|
||||
const d = getTeamData(name);
|
||||
expect((d?.p_div ?? 0) + (d?.p_wc ?? 0), `${name} p_div + p_wc > 1`).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1.001);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("Dodgers have the highest p_div in NL West", () => {
|
||||
const dodgers = getTeamData("Los Angeles Dodgers");
|
||||
const padres = getTeamData("San Diego Padres");
|
||||
const dbacks = getTeamData("Arizona Diamondbacks");
|
||||
expect(dodgers?.p_div ?? 0).toBeGreaterThan(padres?.p_div ?? 0);
|
||||
expect(dodgers?.p_div ?? 0).toBeGreaterThan(dbacks?.p_div ?? 0);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("rebuilding teams have low p_div", () => {
|
||||
const whiteSox = getTeamData("Chicago White Sox");
|
||||
const rockies = getTeamData("Colorado Rockies");
|
||||
expect(whiteSox?.p_div ?? 0).toBeLessThan(0.15);
|
||||
expect(rockies?.p_div ?? 0).toBeLessThan(0.10);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Series simulators ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const teamA = { id: "a", name: "Team A", data: undefined };
|
||||
const teamB = { id: "b", name: "Team B", data: undefined };
|
||||
const alwaysA = () => 1.0; // team A always wins each game
|
||||
const alwaysB = () => 0.0; // team B always wins each game
|
||||
const coinFlip = () => 0.5;
|
||||
|
||||
describe("simBo3 (Wildcard Round — first to 2 wins)", () => {
|
||||
it("correct team wins when one side is dominant", () => {
|
||||
expect(simBo3(teamA, teamB, alwaysA).winner).toBe(teamA);
|
||||
expect(simBo3(teamA, teamB, alwaysB).winner).toBe(teamB);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("returns a winner and loser", () => {
|
||||
const result = simBo3(teamA, teamB, coinFlip);
|
||||
expect([teamA, teamB]).toContain(result.winner);
|
||||
expect([teamA, teamB]).toContain(result.loser);
|
||||
expect(result.winner).not.toBe(result.loser);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
describe("simBo5 (Division Series — first to 3 wins)", () => {
|
||||
it("correct team wins when one side is dominant", () => {
|
||||
expect(simBo5(teamA, teamB, alwaysA).winner).toBe(teamA);
|
||||
expect(simBo5(teamA, teamB, alwaysB).winner).toBe(teamB);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("returns a winner and loser", () => {
|
||||
const result = simBo5(teamA, teamB, coinFlip);
|
||||
expect([teamA, teamB]).toContain(result.winner);
|
||||
expect(result.winner).not.toBe(result.loser);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
describe("simBo7 (LCS / World Series — first to 4 wins)", () => {
|
||||
it("correct team wins when one side is dominant", () => {
|
||||
expect(simBo7(teamA, teamB, alwaysA).winner).toBe(teamA);
|
||||
expect(simBo7(teamA, teamB, alwaysB).winner).toBe(teamB);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("returns a winner and loser", () => {
|
||||
const result = simBo7(teamA, teamB, coinFlip);
|
||||
expect([teamA, teamB]).toContain(result.winner);
|
||||
expect(result.winner).not.toBe(result.loser);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
@ -265,7 +265,7 @@ describe("QP accumulation ranking (unit)", () => {
|
|||
const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos);
|
||||
|
||||
let seed1Wins = 0;
|
||||
const TRIALS = 500;
|
||||
const TRIALS = 2000;
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < TRIALS; i++) {
|
||||
const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap);
|
||||
const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard");
|
||||
|
|
@ -273,9 +273,10 @@ describe("QP accumulation ranking (unit)", () => {
|
|||
if (seed1?.qp === 20) seed1Wins++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Seed 1 has ~3 points advantage per player; against 127 opponents should win
|
||||
// substantially more than 1/128 ≈ 0.78% of the time
|
||||
// Seed 1 has ~3 Elo points advantage per seed; should win substantially
|
||||
// more than 1/128 ≈ 0.78% of the time. Threshold at 0.02 is still well
|
||||
// above random; 2000 trials keeps std dev small enough to be non-flaky.
|
||||
const winRate = seed1Wins / TRIALS;
|
||||
expect(winRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.03); // > 3% (well above random 0.78%)
|
||||
expect(winRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.02); // > 2% (well above random 0.78%)
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
652
app/services/simulations/mlb-simulator.ts
Normal file
652
app/services/simulations/mlb-simulator.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,652 @@
|
|||
/**
|
||||
* MLB Playoff Simulator
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Monte Carlo simulation of the MLB season and playoffs including seeding
|
||||
* projection for the current season (2026).
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Algorithm:
|
||||
* 1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB
|
||||
* 2. Match participant names to hardcoded team data (Elo + seeding probabilities)
|
||||
* 3. For each simulation:
|
||||
* a. For each league (AL/NL), draw 1 division winner per division (3 draws),
|
||||
* then draw 3 wildcard teams from the remaining pool — all weighted draws.
|
||||
* b. Seed division winners 1–3 by Elo (best Elo = seed 1); WC teams 4–6 by Elo.
|
||||
* c. Run the playoff bracket per league:
|
||||
* - Wildcard Round (best-of-3): 3 vs 6, 4 vs 5 (seeds 1 & 2 get byes)
|
||||
* - Division Series (best-of-5): 1 vs lowest WC survivor, 2 vs other
|
||||
* - League Championship Series (best-of-7)
|
||||
* d. World Series (best-of-7): AL champ vs NL champ
|
||||
* 4. Track placement counts per scoring tier
|
||||
* 5. Convert counts to probability distributions
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Win probability (Elo, PARITY_FACTOR = 350):
|
||||
* P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / 350))
|
||||
* MLB uses a lower parity factor than the NBA (400) or NHL (1000) to reflect
|
||||
* that better teams win series at a somewhat higher rate in baseball. The short
|
||||
* best-of-3 wildcard round introduces significant upset potential.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Futures blending:
|
||||
* If sourceOdds are stored in participantExpectedValues for this season,
|
||||
* the per-game win probability is blended:
|
||||
* P(game) = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
|
||||
* where oddsProb = normalizedOdds(A) / (normalizedOdds(A) + normalizedOdds(B)).
|
||||
* Normalized odds are vig-removed futures win probabilities.
|
||||
* ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7, ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.3 (same calibration as NHL simulator).
|
||||
* Falls back to Elo-only when no odds are stored.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
|
||||
* probFirst = World Series champion (1 per sim)
|
||||
* probSecond = World Series loser (1 per sim)
|
||||
* probThird / probFourth = LCS losers (2 per sim — AL + NL, split evenly)
|
||||
* probFifth–probEighth = Division Series losers (4 per sim, split evenly)
|
||||
* Wildcard Round losers → all 0 (score 0 points, same as non-playoff teams)
|
||||
* Missed playoffs → all 0
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Team data keys:
|
||||
* elo: Elo rating derived from FanGraphs projected wins (ExpW) via:
|
||||
* elo = 1500 + 350 * log10(winRate / (1 - winRate))
|
||||
* where winRate = ExpW / 162
|
||||
* p_div: Probability of winning own division (FanGraphs divTitle).
|
||||
* Must sum to ~1.0 within each 5-team division.
|
||||
* p_wc: Probability of claiming one of 3 wildcard slots (FanGraphs wcTitle).
|
||||
* Used as relative weights among non-division-winners in each league.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Elo ratings and seeding probabilities are hardcoded below (2026 pre-season).
|
||||
* Source: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div
|
||||
* Update at the start of each season using the formula above.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Divisions:
|
||||
* AL East: Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays
|
||||
* AL Central: Royals, Guardians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox
|
||||
* AL West: Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Angels, Athletics
|
||||
* NL East: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Marlins
|
||||
* NL Central: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Pirates
|
||||
* NL West: Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies
|
||||
*/
|
||||
|
||||
import { database } from "~/database/context";
|
||||
import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
|
||||
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
|
||||
import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
|
||||
import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
|
||||
import {
|
||||
convertAmericanOddsToProbability,
|
||||
normalizeProbabilities,
|
||||
} from "~/services/probability-engine";
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Elo parity factor. MLB uses 350 (below NHL's 1000 and NBA's 400) to reflect
|
||||
* that teams of different quality win series at a higher rate in baseball
|
||||
* compared to hockey, where single-game variance is very high.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const PARITY_FACTOR = 350;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Blend weights for Elo vs. Vegas futures odds when sourceOdds are available.
|
||||
* Same calibration as the NHL simulator (0.7 / 0.3).
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
|
||||
const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Team data (2026 pre-season estimates) ────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
//
|
||||
// elo: Derived from FanGraphs projected wins (ExpW) via:
|
||||
// elo = 1500 + 350 * log10(winRate / (1 - winRate))
|
||||
// where winRate = ExpW / 162
|
||||
// p_div: FanGraphs divTitle — probability of winning own division.
|
||||
// Sum within each 5-team division should equal ~1.0.
|
||||
// p_wc: FanGraphs wcTitle — probability of claiming a wildcard slot.
|
||||
// Used as relative weights among non-division-winners per league.
|
||||
// Does not need to sum to any specific value.
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Update these at the start of each season using the FanGraphs playoff odds page:
|
||||
// https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/div
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Quick update formula (JavaScript):
|
||||
// const winRate = ExpW / 162;
|
||||
// const elo = Math.round(1500 + 350 * Math.log10(winRate / (1 - winRate)));
|
||||
|
||||
interface MlbTeamData {
|
||||
league: "AL" | "NL";
|
||||
division: "AL East" | "AL Central" | "AL West" | "NL East" | "NL Central" | "NL West";
|
||||
elo: number;
|
||||
p_div: number;
|
||||
p_wc: number;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const TEAMS_DATA: Record<string, MlbTeamData> = {
|
||||
// ── American League East ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"New York Yankees": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL East", elo: 1545,
|
||||
p_div: 0.30, p_wc: 0.42,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Baltimore Orioles": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL East", elo: 1535,
|
||||
p_div: 0.28, p_wc: 0.41,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Boston Red Sox": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL East", elo: 1520,
|
||||
p_div: 0.22, p_wc: 0.35,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Tampa Bay Rays": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL East", elo: 1513,
|
||||
p_div: 0.12, p_wc: 0.25,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Toronto Blue Jays": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL East", elo: 1506,
|
||||
p_div: 0.08, p_wc: 0.18,
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── American League Central ────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"Kansas City Royals": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL Central", elo: 1519,
|
||||
p_div: 0.28, p_wc: 0.30,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Cleveland Guardians": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL Central", elo: 1516,
|
||||
p_div: 0.27, p_wc: 0.29,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Minnesota Twins": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL Central", elo: 1514,
|
||||
p_div: 0.23, p_wc: 0.25,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Detroit Tigers": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL Central", elo: 1510,
|
||||
p_div: 0.15, p_wc: 0.18,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Chicago White Sox": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL Central", elo: 1440,
|
||||
p_div: 0.07, p_wc: 0.03,
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── American League West ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"Houston Astros": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL West", elo: 1537,
|
||||
p_div: 0.35, p_wc: 0.40,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Seattle Mariners": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL West", elo: 1528,
|
||||
p_div: 0.28, p_wc: 0.35,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Texas Rangers": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL West", elo: 1522,
|
||||
p_div: 0.22, p_wc: 0.28,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Los Angeles Angels": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL West", elo: 1475,
|
||||
p_div: 0.09, p_wc: 0.08,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Athletics": {
|
||||
league: "AL", division: "AL West", elo: 1455,
|
||||
p_div: 0.06, p_wc: 0.04,
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── National League East ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"Philadelphia Phillies": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL East", elo: 1553,
|
||||
p_div: 0.35, p_wc: 0.42,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Atlanta Braves": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL East", elo: 1550,
|
||||
p_div: 0.32, p_wc: 0.40,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"New York Mets": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL East", elo: 1534,
|
||||
p_div: 0.22, p_wc: 0.33,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Washington Nationals": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL East", elo: 1483,
|
||||
p_div: 0.07, p_wc: 0.07,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Miami Marlins": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL East", elo: 1468,
|
||||
p_div: 0.04, p_wc: 0.03,
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── National League Central ────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"Milwaukee Brewers": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL Central", elo: 1529,
|
||||
p_div: 0.35, p_wc: 0.38,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Chicago Cubs": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL Central", elo: 1515,
|
||||
p_div: 0.27, p_wc: 0.28,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"St. Louis Cardinals": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL Central", elo: 1507,
|
||||
p_div: 0.20, p_wc: 0.20,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Cincinnati Reds": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL Central", elo: 1503,
|
||||
p_div: 0.12, p_wc: 0.13,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Pittsburgh Pirates": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL Central", elo: 1498,
|
||||
p_div: 0.06, p_wc: 0.07,
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── National League West ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
"Los Angeles Dodgers": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL West", elo: 1570,
|
||||
p_div: 0.65, p_wc: 0.28,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"San Diego Padres": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL West", elo: 1525,
|
||||
p_div: 0.15, p_wc: 0.30,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Arizona Diamondbacks": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL West", elo: 1520,
|
||||
p_div: 0.12, p_wc: 0.28,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"San Francisco Giants": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL West", elo: 1510,
|
||||
p_div: 0.06, p_wc: 0.20,
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Colorado Rockies": {
|
||||
league: "NL", division: "NL West", elo: 1442,
|
||||
p_div: 0.02, p_wc: 0.02,
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Public helpers (exported for unit testing) ───────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
/** Normalize a team name for lookup (lowercase, trimmed, collapsed whitespace). */
|
||||
export function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
|
||||
return name.toLowerCase().trim().replace(/\s+/g, " ");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Look up team data by participant name (case-insensitive). */
|
||||
export function getTeamData(name: string): MlbTeamData | undefined {
|
||||
const normalized = normalizeTeamName(name);
|
||||
for (const [teamName, data] of Object.entries(TEAMS_DATA)) {
|
||||
if (normalizeTeamName(teamName) === normalized) return data;
|
||||
}
|
||||
return undefined;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Elo win probability for team A over team B.
|
||||
* P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR))
|
||||
* Exported for unit testing.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
export function eloWinProbability(eloA: number, eloB: number): number {
|
||||
return 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, (eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Internal types ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
interface TeamEntry {
|
||||
id: string;
|
||||
name: string;
|
||||
data: MlbTeamData | undefined;
|
||||
originalSeed?: number;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Get Elo for a team entry. Fallback 1400 for unknown teams. */
|
||||
function elo(entry: TeamEntry): number {
|
||||
return entry.data?.elo ?? 1400;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Weighted pick without replacement using the given weight key.
|
||||
* Returns undefined if no eligible team has positive weight.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function weightedPickByKey(
|
||||
pool: TeamEntry[],
|
||||
excluded: Set<TeamEntry>,
|
||||
getWeight: (t: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): TeamEntry | undefined {
|
||||
const eligible = pool.filter((t) => !excluded.has(t));
|
||||
if (eligible.length === 0) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
const weights = eligible.map(getWeight);
|
||||
const total = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0);
|
||||
if (total === 0) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
let r = Math.random() * total;
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < eligible.length; i++) {
|
||||
r -= weights[i];
|
||||
if (r <= 0) return eligible[i];
|
||||
}
|
||||
return eligible[eligible.length - 1];
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Series simulators ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
type SeriesResult = { winner: TeamEntry; loser: TeamEntry };
|
||||
|
||||
/** Simulate a series where the winner must reach `winsNeeded` wins. */
|
||||
function simSeries(
|
||||
a: TeamEntry,
|
||||
b: TeamEntry,
|
||||
winsNeeded: number,
|
||||
gameWinProb: (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): SeriesResult {
|
||||
const prob = gameWinProb(a, b);
|
||||
let winsA = 0;
|
||||
let winsB = 0;
|
||||
while (winsA < winsNeeded && winsB < winsNeeded) {
|
||||
if (Math.random() < prob) winsA++; else winsB++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
return winsA === winsNeeded ? { winner: a, loser: b } : { winner: b, loser: a };
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Wildcard Round: best-of-3 (first to 2 wins). */
|
||||
export function simBo3(
|
||||
a: TeamEntry,
|
||||
b: TeamEntry,
|
||||
gameWinProb: (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): SeriesResult {
|
||||
return simSeries(a, b, 2, gameWinProb);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Division Series: best-of-5 (first to 3 wins). */
|
||||
export function simBo5(
|
||||
a: TeamEntry,
|
||||
b: TeamEntry,
|
||||
gameWinProb: (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): SeriesResult {
|
||||
return simSeries(a, b, 3, gameWinProb);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** League Championship + World Series: best-of-7 (first to 4 wins). */
|
||||
export function simBo7(
|
||||
a: TeamEntry,
|
||||
b: TeamEntry,
|
||||
gameWinProb: (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): SeriesResult {
|
||||
return simSeries(a, b, 4, gameWinProb);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── League bracket builder ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Draws the 6-team playoff field for one league (AL or NL).
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Steps:
|
||||
* 1. For each of the 3 divisions, draw 1 division winner weighted by p_div.
|
||||
* 2. From the remaining non-division-winners, draw 3 WC teams weighted by p_wc.
|
||||
* 3. Rank division winners 1–3 by Elo (best Elo → seed 1).
|
||||
* 4. Rank WC teams 4–6 by Elo (best Elo → seed 4).
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Returns an array of 6 TeamEntry objects in seed order [1..6], each annotated
|
||||
* with originalSeed, or undefined if any draw is degenerate (no eligible team
|
||||
* with positive weight).
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function drawLeaguePlayoffField(
|
||||
leagueTeams: TeamEntry[]
|
||||
): TeamEntry[] | undefined {
|
||||
// Group by division
|
||||
const divMap = new Map<string, TeamEntry[]>();
|
||||
for (const t of leagueTeams) {
|
||||
const div = t.data?.division ?? "Unknown";
|
||||
if (!divMap.has(div)) divMap.set(div, []);
|
||||
divMap.get(div)?.push(t);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const divisionWinners: TeamEntry[] = [];
|
||||
const allDivisionWinnerSet = new Set<TeamEntry>();
|
||||
|
||||
for (const divTeams of divMap.values()) {
|
||||
const winner = weightedPickByKey(divTeams, new Set(), (t) => t.data?.p_div ?? 0);
|
||||
if (!winner) return undefined;
|
||||
divisionWinners.push(winner);
|
||||
allDivisionWinnerSet.add(winner);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Draw 3 WC teams from non-division-winners
|
||||
const wcPool = leagueTeams.filter((t) => !allDivisionWinnerSet.has(t));
|
||||
const wcTaken = new Set<TeamEntry>();
|
||||
const wcTeams: TeamEntry[] = [];
|
||||
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < 3; i++) {
|
||||
const wc = weightedPickByKey(wcPool, wcTaken, (t) => t.data?.p_wc ?? 0);
|
||||
if (!wc) return undefined;
|
||||
wcTeams.push(wc);
|
||||
wcTaken.add(wc);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Rank division winners 1–3 by Elo descending (best Elo = seed 1)
|
||||
const sortedDivWinners = divisionWinners.toSorted((a, b) => elo(b) - elo(a));
|
||||
|
||||
// Rank WC teams 4–6 by Elo descending (best Elo = seed 4)
|
||||
const sortedWcTeams = wcTeams.toSorted((a, b) => elo(b) - elo(a));
|
||||
|
||||
const seeds = [...sortedDivWinners, ...sortedWcTeams];
|
||||
return seeds.map((t, i) => ({ ...t, originalSeed: i + 1 }));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Simulate the full playoff bracket for one league.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Bracket structure:
|
||||
* Wildcard Round (best-of-3): seeds 3v6, 4v5 — seeds 1 & 2 get byes
|
||||
* Division Series (best-of-5): 1 vs lowest-seeded WC survivor; 2 vs other
|
||||
* League Championship Series (best-of-7)
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Returns { lcWinner, lcLoser, dsLosers[2], wcLosers[2] }
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function simLeagueBracket(
|
||||
seeds: TeamEntry[],
|
||||
gameWinProb: (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry) => number
|
||||
): {
|
||||
lcWinner: TeamEntry;
|
||||
lcLoser: TeamEntry;
|
||||
dsLosers: [TeamEntry, TeamEntry];
|
||||
wcLosers: [TeamEntry, TeamEntry];
|
||||
} {
|
||||
const [s1, s2, s3, s4, s5, s6] = seeds;
|
||||
|
||||
// Wildcard Round (best-of-3)
|
||||
const wc1 = simBo3(s3, s6, gameWinProb);
|
||||
const wc2 = simBo3(s4, s5, gameWinProb);
|
||||
|
||||
// Division Series: re-seed — seed 1 plays the worse WC survivor, seed 2 plays the better one.
|
||||
// Sort by originalSeed ascending: [0] = lower seed number = better team, [1] = worse team.
|
||||
const survivors = [wc1.winner, wc2.winner].toSorted(
|
||||
(a, b) => (a.originalSeed ?? 0) - (b.originalSeed ?? 0)
|
||||
);
|
||||
const ds1 = simBo5(s1, survivors[1], gameWinProb); // 1 vs worse remaining (higher seed number)
|
||||
const ds2 = simBo5(s2, survivors[0], gameWinProb); // 2 vs better remaining (lower seed number)
|
||||
|
||||
// League Championship Series (best-of-7)
|
||||
const lcs = simBo7(ds1.winner, ds2.winner, gameWinProb);
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
lcWinner: lcs.winner,
|
||||
lcLoser: lcs.loser,
|
||||
dsLosers: [ds1.loser, ds2.loser],
|
||||
wcLosers: [wc1.loser, wc2.loser],
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
|
||||
async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
|
||||
const db = database();
|
||||
|
||||
// 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
|
||||
const participantRows = await db
|
||||
.select({ id: schema.participants.id, name: schema.participants.name })
|
||||
.from(schema.participants)
|
||||
.where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
||||
|
||||
if (participantRows.length === 0) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. ` +
|
||||
`Add MLB teams as participants before running simulation.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const participantIds = participantRows.map((r) => r.id);
|
||||
|
||||
const teams: TeamEntry[] = participantRows.map((r) => ({
|
||||
id: r.id,
|
||||
name: r.name,
|
||||
data: getTeamData(r.name),
|
||||
}));
|
||||
|
||||
// Warn about participants that don't match any hardcoded team.
|
||||
const unrecognized = teams.filter((t) => !t.data);
|
||||
if (unrecognized.length > 0) {
|
||||
logger.warn(
|
||||
`[MLBSimulator] ${unrecognized.length} participant(s) not found in TEAMS_DATA and will be excluded: ` +
|
||||
unrecognized.map((t) => t.name).join(", ")
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const alTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.league === "AL");
|
||||
const nlTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.league === "NL");
|
||||
|
||||
if (alTeams.length < 5 || nlTeams.length < 5) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
`Each league needs at least 5 recognized participants ` +
|
||||
`(got AL: ${alTeams.length}, NL: ${nlTeams.length}). ` +
|
||||
`Add MLB teams before running simulation.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Futures odds blending ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const evRows = await db
|
||||
.select({
|
||||
participantId: schema.participantExpectedValues.participantId,
|
||||
sourceOdds: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
|
||||
})
|
||||
.from(schema.participantExpectedValues)
|
||||
.where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
||||
|
||||
const participantIdSet = new Set(participantIds);
|
||||
const oddsRows = evRows.filter(
|
||||
(r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantIdSet.has(r.participantId)
|
||||
);
|
||||
const hasOdds = oddsRows.length > 0;
|
||||
|
||||
const normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||
if (hasOdds) {
|
||||
const rawProbs = oddsRows.map((r) =>
|
||||
convertAmericanOddsToProbability(r.sourceOdds ?? 0)
|
||||
);
|
||||
const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(rawProbs);
|
||||
oddsRows.forEach(({ participantId }, i) => {
|
||||
normalizedOddsMap.set(participantId, normalized[i]);
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Blended per-game win probability for team A over team B.
|
||||
* When odds are available: 70% Elo + 30% vig-removed futures head-to-head.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const gameWinProb = (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry): number => {
|
||||
const eloProb = eloWinProbability(elo(a), elo(b));
|
||||
if (!hasOdds) return eloProb;
|
||||
|
||||
const o1 = normalizedOddsMap.get(a.id);
|
||||
const o2 = normalizedOddsMap.get(b.id);
|
||||
// Fall back to Elo if either team lacks odds — avoids inflating one side to 100%.
|
||||
if (o1 === null || o1 === undefined || o2 === null || o2 === undefined) return eloProb;
|
||||
const oddsProb = o1 + o2 > 0 ? o1 / (o1 + o2) : 0.5;
|
||||
return ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb;
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Placement count maps ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const championCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const finalistCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const lcsLoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const dsLoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
// WC losers are not tracked — they score 0 points
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Monte Carlo simulation loop ───────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
let effectiveN = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
|
||||
const alField = drawLeaguePlayoffField(alTeams);
|
||||
const nlField = drawLeaguePlayoffField(nlTeams);
|
||||
if (!alField || !nlField) continue; // degenerate draw — skip
|
||||
|
||||
effectiveN++;
|
||||
|
||||
// Simulate both league brackets
|
||||
const alResult = simLeagueBracket(alField, gameWinProb);
|
||||
const nlResult = simLeagueBracket(nlField, gameWinProb);
|
||||
|
||||
// LCS losers (3rd/4th tier)
|
||||
lcsLoserCounts.set(alResult.lcLoser.id, (lcsLoserCounts.get(alResult.lcLoser.id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||
lcsLoserCounts.set(nlResult.lcLoser.id, (lcsLoserCounts.get(nlResult.lcLoser.id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
// DS losers (5th–8th tier)
|
||||
for (const loser of [...alResult.dsLosers, ...nlResult.dsLosers]) {
|
||||
dsLoserCounts.set(loser.id, (dsLoserCounts.get(loser.id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// World Series (best-of-7)
|
||||
const ws = simBo7(alResult.lcWinner, nlResult.lcWinner, gameWinProb);
|
||||
championCounts.set(ws.winner.id, (championCounts.get(ws.winner.id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||
finalistCounts.set(ws.loser.id, (finalistCounts.get(ws.loser.id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (effectiveN === 0) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
"All simulations produced degenerate brackets. " +
|
||||
"Check that each division has teams with positive p_div values."
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Convert counts to probability distributions ───────────────────────────
|
||||
//
|
||||
// probFirst/Second → count / N (1 team per sim)
|
||||
// probThird/Fourth → count / (2 * N) (2 LCS losers per sim: AL + NL)
|
||||
// probFifth–Eighth → count / (4 * N) (4 DS losers per sim: 2 per league)
|
||||
// WC losers → 0 (all probs zero)
|
||||
|
||||
const N = effectiveN;
|
||||
const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => {
|
||||
const c = championCounts.get(participantId) ?? 0;
|
||||
const f = finalistCounts.get(participantId) ?? 0;
|
||||
const lcs = lcsLoserCounts.get(participantId) ?? 0;
|
||||
const ds = dsLoserCounts.get(participantId) ?? 0;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
participantId,
|
||||
probabilities: {
|
||||
probFirst: c / N,
|
||||
probSecond: f / N,
|
||||
probThird: lcs / (2 * N),
|
||||
probFourth: lcs / (2 * N),
|
||||
probFifth: ds / (4 * N),
|
||||
probSixth: ds / (4 * N),
|
||||
probSeventh: ds / (4 * N),
|
||||
probEighth: ds / (4 * N),
|
||||
},
|
||||
source: "mlb_bracket_monte_carlo",
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Per-position normalization ────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const positionKeys: Array<keyof (typeof results)[0]["probabilities"]> = [
|
||||
"probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
|
||||
"probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
|
||||
];
|
||||
for (const key of positionKeys) {
|
||||
const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
|
||||
const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
|
||||
if (residual !== 0) {
|
||||
const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
|
||||
r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
|
||||
);
|
||||
maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return results;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator";
|
|||
import { AFLSimulator } from "./afl-simulator";
|
||||
import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator";
|
||||
import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator";
|
||||
import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator";
|
||||
|
||||
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
|
||||
"f1_standings",
|
||||
|
|
@ -32,6 +33,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
|
|||
"afl_bracket",
|
||||
"snooker_bracket",
|
||||
"tennis_qualifying_points",
|
||||
"mlb_bracket",
|
||||
] as const;
|
||||
|
||||
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
|
||||
|
|
@ -104,6 +106,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simul
|
|||
info: { name: "Tennis Grand Slam Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (128-player seeded bracket) using surface-specific Elo ratings. Accumulates qualifying points per round (tie-split applied) and ranks players by total QP across the season." },
|
||||
create: () => new TennisSimulator(),
|
||||
},
|
||||
mlb_bracket: {
|
||||
info: { name: "MLB Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates MLB division races + full playoff bracket (WC best-of-3, DS best-of-5, LCS/WS best-of-7) using Elo ratings calibrated from FanGraphs projected wins" },
|
||||
create: () => new MLBSimulator(),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
281
app/services/standings-sync/__tests__/mlb.test.ts
Normal file
281
app/services/standings-sync/__tests__/mlb.test.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,281 @@
|
|||
import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
|
||||
import { MlbStandingsAdapter } from "../mlb";
|
||||
|
||||
const SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE = {
|
||||
records: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
// AL East division record
|
||||
teamRecords: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
team: {
|
||||
id: 110,
|
||||
name: "Baltimore Orioles",
|
||||
league: { name: "American League" },
|
||||
division: { name: "AL East" },
|
||||
},
|
||||
wins: 47,
|
||||
losses: 34,
|
||||
gamesPlayed: 81,
|
||||
winningPercentage: ".580",
|
||||
divisionRank: "1",
|
||||
leagueRank: "1",
|
||||
gamesBack: "-",
|
||||
streak: { streakCode: "W", streakNumber: 3 },
|
||||
records: {
|
||||
splitRecords: [
|
||||
{ type: "home", wins: 24, losses: 15 },
|
||||
{ type: "away", wins: 23, losses: 19 },
|
||||
{ type: "lastTen", wins: 7, losses: 3 },
|
||||
],
|
||||
},
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
team: {
|
||||
id: 111,
|
||||
name: "Boston Red Sox",
|
||||
league: { name: "American League" },
|
||||
division: { name: "AL East" },
|
||||
},
|
||||
wins: 42,
|
||||
losses: 39,
|
||||
gamesPlayed: 81,
|
||||
winningPercentage: ".519",
|
||||
divisionRank: "2",
|
||||
leagueRank: "4",
|
||||
gamesBack: "5.0",
|
||||
streak: { streakCode: "L", streakNumber: 2 },
|
||||
records: {
|
||||
splitRecords: [
|
||||
{ type: "home", wins: 22, losses: 18 },
|
||||
{ type: "away", wins: 20, losses: 21 },
|
||||
{ type: "lastTen", wins: 4, losses: 6 },
|
||||
],
|
||||
},
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
// NL East division record
|
||||
teamRecords: [
|
||||
{
|
||||
team: {
|
||||
id: 121,
|
||||
name: "New York Mets",
|
||||
league: { name: "National League" },
|
||||
division: { name: "NL East" },
|
||||
},
|
||||
wins: 43,
|
||||
losses: 38,
|
||||
gamesPlayed: 81,
|
||||
winningPercentage: ".531",
|
||||
divisionRank: "1",
|
||||
leagueRank: "1",
|
||||
gamesBack: "-",
|
||||
streak: { streakCode: "W", streakNumber: 1 },
|
||||
records: {
|
||||
splitRecords: [
|
||||
{ type: "home", wins: 22, losses: 17 },
|
||||
{ type: "away", wins: 21, losses: 21 },
|
||||
{ type: "lastTen", wins: 6, losses: 4 },
|
||||
],
|
||||
},
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
},
|
||||
],
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
describe("MlbStandingsAdapter", () => {
|
||||
beforeEach(() => {
|
||||
vi.stubGlobal("fetch", vi.fn());
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("maps AL teams to conference 'AL'", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const bos = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(bos?.conference).toBe("AL");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("maps NL teams to conference 'NL'", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const mets = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "New York Mets");
|
||||
expect(mets?.conference).toBe("NL");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("maps division names correctly", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const bos = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
const mets = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "New York Mets");
|
||||
expect(bos?.division).toBe("AL East");
|
||||
expect(mets?.division).toBe("NL East");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("maps wins, losses, gamesPlayed, and winPct", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(ori?.wins).toBe(47);
|
||||
expect(ori?.losses).toBe(34);
|
||||
expect(ori?.gamesPlayed).toBe(81);
|
||||
expect(ori?.winPct).toBeCloseTo(0.58, 2);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("formats streak as 'W3' or 'L2'", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
const bos = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Boston Red Sox");
|
||||
expect(ori?.streak).toBe("W3");
|
||||
expect(bos?.streak).toBe("L2");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("extracts lastTen from splitRecords", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(ori?.lastTen).toBe("7-3");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("extracts homeRecord and awayRecord from splitRecords", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(ori?.homeRecord).toBe("24-15");
|
||||
expect(ori?.awayRecord).toBe("23-19");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("parses gamesBack as null for the division leader ('-')", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(ori?.gamesBack).toBeUndefined();
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("parses gamesBack as a number for non-leaders", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const bos = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Boston Red Sox");
|
||||
expect(bos?.gamesBack).toBeCloseTo(5.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("computes leagueRank sorted by wins desc across all 30 teams", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
// Baltimore (47W) should rank #1 overall, Boston (42W) should rank #2
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
const bos = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Boston Red Sox");
|
||||
expect(ori?.leagueRank).toBe(1);
|
||||
expect(bos?.leagueRank).toBeGreaterThan(1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("never sets otLosses (MLB has no OT losses)", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
for (const record of records) {
|
||||
expect(record.otLosses).toBeUndefined();
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("uses team numeric id as externalTeamId", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => SAMPLE_MLB_RESPONSE,
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
const records = await adapter.fetchStandings();
|
||||
|
||||
const ori = records.find((r) => r.teamName === "Baltimore Orioles");
|
||||
expect(ori?.externalTeamId).toBe("110");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("throws on non-ok HTTP response", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: false,
|
||||
status: 503,
|
||||
statusText: "Service Unavailable",
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
await expect(adapter.fetchStandings()).rejects.toThrow("503");
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("throws on unexpected response shape", async () => {
|
||||
vi.mocked(fetch).mockResolvedValueOnce({
|
||||
ok: true,
|
||||
json: async () => ({ unexpected: true }),
|
||||
} as Response);
|
||||
|
||||
const adapter = new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
await expect(adapter.fetchStandings()).rejects.toThrow();
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { findMatchingTeamName } from "~/lib/normalize-team-name";
|
|||
import { NhlStandingsAdapter } from "./nhl";
|
||||
import { NbaStandingsAdapter } from "./nba";
|
||||
import { AflStandingsAdapter } from "./afl";
|
||||
import { MlbStandingsAdapter } from "./mlb";
|
||||
import type { StandingsSyncAdapter, SyncResult, UnmatchedTeam } from "./types";
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
|
|
@ -23,6 +24,8 @@ function getAdapter(simulatorType: string): StandingsSyncAdapter {
|
|||
return new NhlStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
case "afl_bracket":
|
||||
return new AflStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
case "mlb_bracket":
|
||||
return new MlbStandingsAdapter();
|
||||
case "f1_standings":
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
"F1 standings sync is not yet implemented. Use the manual standings page."
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
160
app/services/standings-sync/mlb.ts
Normal file
160
app/services/standings-sync/mlb.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
|
|||
import type { FetchedStandingsRecord, StandingsSyncAdapter } from "./types";
|
||||
|
||||
// MLB Stats API — free, no key required.
|
||||
// leagueId 103 = American League, 104 = National League
|
||||
const MLB_STANDINGS_URL =
|
||||
"https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/standings?leagueId=103,104&standingsTypes=regularSeason&hydrate=team(division,league)";
|
||||
|
||||
interface MlbSplitRecord {
|
||||
type: string; // "home", "away", "lastTen", etc.
|
||||
wins: number;
|
||||
losses: number;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
interface MlbTeamRecord {
|
||||
team: {
|
||||
id: number;
|
||||
name: string;
|
||||
league?: { name?: string };
|
||||
division?: { name?: string };
|
||||
};
|
||||
wins: number;
|
||||
losses: number;
|
||||
gamesPlayed: number;
|
||||
winningPercentage: string; // e.g. ".617"
|
||||
divisionRank?: string; // e.g. "1"–"5" — rank within the 5-team division (all teams)
|
||||
wildCardRank?: string; // e.g. "1" — only set for WC-ranked teams
|
||||
leagueRank?: string; // rank within the 15-team AL or NL
|
||||
gamesBack: string; // "-" for leader, "2.0" otherwise
|
||||
wildCardGamesBack?: string;
|
||||
streak?: { streakCode: string; streakNumber: number };
|
||||
records?: { splitRecords?: MlbSplitRecord[] };
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
interface MlbDivisionRecord {
|
||||
teamRecords: MlbTeamRecord[];
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
interface MlbStandingsResponse {
|
||||
records: MlbDivisionRecord[];
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function sortByRecord(a: MlbTeamRecord, b: MlbTeamRecord): number {
|
||||
return b.wins !== a.wins ? b.wins - a.wins : a.losses - b.losses;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export class MlbStandingsAdapter implements StandingsSyncAdapter {
|
||||
constructor(private season: number = new Date().getFullYear()) {}
|
||||
|
||||
async fetchStandings(): Promise<FetchedStandingsRecord[]> {
|
||||
const url = `${MLB_STANDINGS_URL}&season=${this.season}`;
|
||||
const response = await fetch(url);
|
||||
if (!response.ok) {
|
||||
throw new Error(`MLB standings API returned ${response.status}: ${response.statusText}`);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const json = (await response.json()) as MlbStandingsResponse;
|
||||
|
||||
if (!json.records || !Array.isArray(json.records)) {
|
||||
throw new Error("Unexpected MLB standings API response shape");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Collect all team records from all division groups
|
||||
const allTeamRecords: MlbTeamRecord[] = json.records.flatMap(
|
||||
(divRecord) => divRecord.teamRecords ?? []
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
if (allTeamRecords.length === 0) {
|
||||
throw new Error("MLB standings API returned no team records");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Compute leagueRank by sorting all teams by wins desc, losses asc within each league.
|
||||
// We'll assign ranks per league (AL rank 1–15, NL rank 1–15) separately since
|
||||
// the API's leagueRank field may reflect conference-level rank.
|
||||
const alTeams = allTeamRecords.filter(
|
||||
(t) => t.team.league?.name?.includes("American")
|
||||
);
|
||||
const nlTeams = allTeamRecords.filter(
|
||||
(t) => t.team.league?.name?.includes("National")
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
const alSorted = [...alTeams].toSorted(sortByRecord);
|
||||
const nlSorted = [...nlTeams].toSorted(sortByRecord);
|
||||
|
||||
const conferenceRankMap = new Map<number, number>();
|
||||
for (const [i, t] of alSorted.entries()) conferenceRankMap.set(t.team.id, i + 1);
|
||||
for (const [i, t] of nlSorted.entries()) conferenceRankMap.set(t.team.id, i + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
// Compute overall league rank across all 30 teams for leagueRank field
|
||||
const allSorted = [...allTeamRecords].toSorted(sortByRecord);
|
||||
const overallRankMap = new Map<number, number>();
|
||||
for (const [i, t] of allSorted.entries()) overallRankMap.set(t.team.id, i + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
return allTeamRecords.map((team): FetchedStandingsRecord => {
|
||||
// Conference: "American League" → "AL", "National League" → "NL"
|
||||
const leagueName = team.team.league?.name ?? "";
|
||||
const conference = leagueName.startsWith("American")
|
||||
? "AL"
|
||||
: leagueName.startsWith("National")
|
||||
? "NL"
|
||||
: leagueName;
|
||||
|
||||
// Division: "AL East", "AL Central", etc.
|
||||
const division = team.team.division?.name ?? null;
|
||||
|
||||
// Win percentage
|
||||
const winPct = parseFloat(team.winningPercentage) || 0;
|
||||
|
||||
// Games back — "-" means leader; use null. Use isNaN guard so GB=0 (tied for first) is kept.
|
||||
const gbParsed = parseFloat(team.gamesBack);
|
||||
const gbStr = (team.gamesBack === "-" || isNaN(gbParsed)) ? null : gbParsed;
|
||||
|
||||
// Division rank and conference rank
|
||||
const divisionRank = team.divisionRank ? parseInt(team.divisionRank, 10) : null;
|
||||
|
||||
// Conference rank: use the per-league rank computed above
|
||||
const conferenceRank = conferenceRankMap.get(team.team.id) ?? null;
|
||||
|
||||
// Streak: e.g. "W3" or "L2"
|
||||
const streak = team.streak
|
||||
? `${team.streak.streakCode}${team.streak.streakNumber}`
|
||||
: undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
// Split records
|
||||
const splits = team.records?.splitRecords ?? [];
|
||||
const homeSplit = splits.find((s) => s.type === "home");
|
||||
const awaySplit = splits.find((s) => s.type === "away");
|
||||
const lastTenSplit = splits.find((s) => s.type === "lastTen");
|
||||
|
||||
const homeRecord = homeSplit
|
||||
? `${homeSplit.wins}-${homeSplit.losses}`
|
||||
: undefined;
|
||||
const awayRecord = awaySplit
|
||||
? `${awaySplit.wins}-${awaySplit.losses}`
|
||||
: undefined;
|
||||
const lastTen = lastTenSplit
|
||||
? `${lastTenSplit.wins}-${lastTenSplit.losses}`
|
||||
: undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
teamName: team.team.name,
|
||||
externalTeamId: String(team.team.id),
|
||||
wins: team.wins,
|
||||
losses: team.losses,
|
||||
gamesPlayed: team.gamesPlayed,
|
||||
winPct,
|
||||
// MLB has no OT losses
|
||||
conference,
|
||||
division: division ?? undefined,
|
||||
divisionRank: divisionRank ?? undefined,
|
||||
conferenceRank: conferenceRank ?? undefined,
|
||||
leagueRank: overallRankMap.get(team.team.id) ?? 1,
|
||||
gamesBack: gbStr ?? undefined,
|
||||
streak,
|
||||
lastTen,
|
||||
homeRecord,
|
||||
awayRecord,
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -95,6 +95,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [
|
|||
"afl_bracket",
|
||||
"snooker_bracket",
|
||||
"tennis_qualifying_points",
|
||||
"mlb_bracket",
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
9
drizzle/0062_add_mlb_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
9
drizzle/0062_add_mlb_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
|
|||
DO $$ BEGIN
|
||||
IF NOT EXISTS (
|
||||
SELECT 1 FROM pg_enum
|
||||
WHERE enumlabel = 'mlb_bracket'
|
||||
AND enumtypid = (SELECT oid FROM pg_type WHERE typname = 'simulator_type')
|
||||
) THEN
|
||||
ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'mlb_bracket';
|
||||
END IF;
|
||||
END $$;
|
||||
|
|
@ -435,6 +435,13 @@
|
|||
"when": 1774410244601,
|
||||
"tag": "0061_violet_mephistopheles",
|
||||
"breakpoints": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"idx": 62,
|
||||
"version": "7",
|
||||
"when": 1774500000000,
|
||||
"tag": "0062_add_mlb_bracket_simulator_type",
|
||||
"breakpoints": true
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue