* Add projected-wins input mode to admin Elo Ratings page
Admins can now enter projected season win totals instead of raw Elo
numbers on the Elo Ratings page. Wins are auto-converted to Elo using
the inverse formula and stored as sourceElo, keeping the rest of the
simulation pipeline unchanged.
- Add `projectedWinsToElo` / `eloToProjectedWins` to probability-engine
- Add `simulator-config.ts` centralising per-sport season length, parity
factor, and average opponent Elo (AFL, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA)
- Admin Elo Ratings page: toggle between Elo and Projected Wins input
modes; bulk import parses wins format; existing sourceElo back-fills
the wins field on load
- AFL simulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues first,
falling back to hardcoded TEAMS_DATA then 1400
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in simulator-config tests and probability-engine
- Replace non-null assertions (`!`) with optional chaining (`?.`) in simulator-config tests
- Remove redundant type annotations on default parameters in probability-engine
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes#127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- SnookerSimulator: Monte Carlo simulation of the 32-player World
Championship bracket using per-frame Bernoulli win probabilities
derived from Elo ratings (ELO_DIVISOR=700). Two paths: bracket-
populated (respects completed matches) and pre-bracket (simulates
qualifying, then seeds full draw).
- Admin route /sports-seasons/:id/elo-ratings: bulk-import and per-
player Elo entry with fuzzy name matching; saves ratings and auto-
runs the simulation in one action.
- schema: add snooker_bracket simulator type, source_elo column on
participant_expected_values, unique index on (participant_id,
sports_season_id).
- Fix batchSaveSourceElos to use INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE
instead of N+1 SELECT+UPDATE loop.
- Fix existingElos returned as plain Record (Map doesn't survive JSON
serialization through useLoaderData).
- Fix "How It Works" formula to show correct divisor (700, not 400).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
